Week 18 is here, which means this is my last round of player props for the regular season. My only regret is that the momentum I have ending the season didn’t begin earlier.
Since Week 7, I’m 31-23 on prop picks. But an extremely rough start to the season (and missing Week 17) will rob me of an opportunity to get to .500.
No worries, though. The goal here is to finish up strong and take those good vibes into the playoffs like any good Super Bowl hopeful. Appropriately, all of this week’s picks are players in games with something on the line.
Week 16: 4-2
2022 record: 41-48
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 46.5 receiving yards (vs. Tennessee Titans)
No team has allowed more yardage to tight ends this season than the Titans. So Engram shouldn’t have a hard time eclipsing his season average of 46 yards, which he had done in three straight games prior to last week’s blowout of the Texans.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: Under 252.5 passing yards (at Green Bay Packers)
Lions-Packers is a huge game this week, but it may not be the shootout some people are expecting. Green Bay’s defense has been the catalyst of the team’s turnaround this year, and Goff only passed for 137 yards in Detroit’s earlier win over the Packers.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 73.5 rushing yards (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Harris’ carries have been up over the last three games, where he’s averaged over 80 yards, and I don’t expect that to change with a potential playoff spot on the line for Pittsburgh.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 255.5 passing yards (vs. Tennessee Titans)
The Titans have been stout against the run all year, but their pass defense has been weak. So why stop at just Engram when I can add the red-hot Lawrence to my picks too? The Jaguars are playing for the division title and will go all out.
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers: Over 49.5 receiving yards (vs. Detroit Lions)
Going pack to Lions-Packers, Detroit’s pass defense isn’t nearly as good as Green Bay’s. I could see Lazard and/or Christian Watson hitting their overs, but I’ll pick the former because of his 17 targets over the last two games.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals: Over 52.5 rushing yards (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
This pick isn’t really an indictment of Baltimore’s run defense, which has been quite good this season. Rather, it’s an acknowledgement of how likely Mixon is to get a healthy dose of carries against a Ravens team that doesn’t score easily. Besides, if there’s anyone who wants to avoid the NFL’s solution to Baltimore not having a shot to win the AFC North with a win, it’s him.
