It’s always risky picking against star players doing star-player things, even when all the numbers and trends point towards an off week. So I only have myself to blame for my first sub-.500 performance since Week 6.
Taking the unders on Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb last week just wasn’t wise. As far as Kirk Cousins’ under, I don’t regret that at all. It looked genius for about a half until the Colts decided to turn into the Little Giants.
But whatever, lesson learned. I’m going heavier on overs this week, with a couple big names sprinkled in for insurance. Let’s get it.
Week 15: 2-4
2022 record: 37-46
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: Over 109.5 rushing yards (vs. Houston Texans)
You’ve seen Henry’s work against the Texans. He kills them. So even with a heavy focus on him by Houston’s defense, he could fall short of his usual 200-yard game and still eclipse this total.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 79.5 receiving yards (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
Seattle does a good job limiting what opposing wide receivers do, but the Hawks do struggle with tight ends, as evidenced by George Kittle’s 93-yard, two-touchdown game on them last week.
Trace McSorley, Arizona Cardinals: Under 191.5 passing yards (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Tampa’s offense is struggling, but the defense is still solid. It’s a tough matchup for McSorley to make his first career start. Expect Arizona to lean on the run game.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers: Over 53.5 receiving yards (vs. Detroit Lions)
Whether or not the Lions get up big on Carolina, the Panthers are going to have to pass to find success in this game. It’s the best way to beat Detroit, and Moore has eclipsed this number in two of their last three games.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Over 14.5 rushing yards (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
Jalen Hurts’ absence obviously hurts Philly’s offense, but the Eagles defense is still good enough to keep them in the game. When Dallas drops back to pass, Prescott might not find many lanes to pass but he should have opportunities to scramble for at least 15 yards for a third straight game.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: Under 271.5 passing yards (vs. Green Bay Packers)
Of all my picks, this one is the one I second-guessed the most, because it falls into that category of picking unders on players who have displayed greatness this season. But aside from Miami’s recent offensive struggles, Green Bay defends the pass really well.
