The Miami Dolphins hit the road on a quick turnaround from Sunday night’s loss to the Buffalo Bills to conclude the regular season.
A Saturday night winter fest is awaiting in Arrowhead Stadium, as temperatures are expected to be freezing and even below zero when factoring in the wind chill. This could be one of the coldest games the NFL has ever seen.
Luckily for Miami, and although this seems rather ambitious to write, they’re actually built for a game like this. Despite the cold-weather stigma of a team from South Florida, as well as regardless of the fact the Dolphins have been bitten by an injury bug, an understatement of mammoth proportions; they can win.
Remember: A Dolphins team did once go into a freezing Arrowhead in 2008, winning in what would be the franchise’s coldest victory in team history, on their way to a division title led by Chad Pennington.
However, the Dolphins are looking at close to a dozen key players with significant injuries overall from the course of the season. We already know that season-ending injuries to Miami’s pass-rushing duo of Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb as well as a Week 18 foot injury to Andrew Van Ginkel have led the Dolphins to bring in a trio of veterans to support the defense.
Former Chief, Colt, Raven and most recently Panther, Justin Houston was signed over the week, as was well-traveled Bruce Irvin and linebacker Malik Reed, who returns to the Dolphins.
The Dolphins need pass-rushing depth as well as linebacking help with Jerome Baker dealing with a wrist injury after the season finale. He’ll be out for the rest of the way for Miami after he had surgery this week.
Despite these injuries, a snowy and windy night in Kansas City could help this Dolphins rush defense stifle the Chiefs. The defensive tackle dream duo of Zach Sieler and Christian Wilkins both had fantastic seasons and are very capable of clamping down the Chiefs’ running attack. David Long, Jr. has been the league’s best run-stopping linebacker, and Brandon Jones, in the secondary, has proved he can help against the ground attack.
It’s these players along with Duke Riley and Raekwon Davis in the front seven that will be called upon to step up to slow down Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the defending world champion Chiefs.
Offensively for Miami, they’re dealing with a bit of uncertainty with two major weapons, one being league rushing touchdown leader and Dolphins touchdown single-season king, Raheem Mostert, and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. Both missed Week 18 and each is very much needed in the first round of the playoffs. Needless to say, one of the game’s top centers, Conor Williams, was lost for the year a month back as well.
From a rushing standpoint, Mostert is the leader of a Miami backfield that has averaged 5.06 yards per carry collectively over the 2023 season, a franchise record, breaking their 1971 mark of 5.0 per rush.
In the Week 9 Chiefs and Dolphins matchup in Germany, Miami gained 117 yards as a team, with Mostert’s 85 leading the way, but just a pair of rushes from Jeff Wilson Jr.
Rookie sensation De’Von Achane didn’t play in that matchup, a game where the Chiefs won 21-14. Look for the speedy and shifty rookie to be heavily utilized Saturday night.
Kansas City ranked 18th in the league against the run in the regular season, giving up 113.3 yards on the ground per game. Miami’s formula for success, with or without Mostert, will be heavy running.
Achane is averaging a ridiculous 7.8 yards per carry and Wilson himself isn’t too shabby, rushing for tough yardage when called upon at a respectable 4.6 per run.
It’ll be interesting to see if undrafted rookie Chris Brooks will be utilized, as this is a game that could make his running style a featured weapon, especially on short yardage, which has plagued the Dolphins this season.
Flipping back to the defense, the secondary is extremely banged up, as cornerback Xavien Howard has been ruled out, and safeties Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott are questionable for the contest.
Nik Needham may be called upon to play a larger role this week, and as for cornerbacks, Eli Apple and Kader Kohou, they must improve on their recent coverage and tacking woes.
As a unit, Miami’s defense heads into Arrowhead with the NFL’s longest current takeaway streak (11 games). The next team behind them has rattled off just six games in a row with a turnover, putting to scale how impressive this Miami ball-hawking defense has been playing.
They’ve also recorded a sack in every game this season and still have 19 seasonal sacks from their defensive tackle tandem of Sieler and Wilkins.
In a matchup in which the weather could be the X-factor, the Dolphins can fight the elements with their own resources and formulate an equation that could lead to a potentially sloppy, but reachable road victory.
An odd, low and could-be “scorigami” scenario may be on deck for this wild-card weekend. Miami should slow-play the Chiefs, ground-and-pound them and dominate the trenches.
The last time Miami won a playoff game was 2000, and running back Lamar Smith won it in overtime with a walk-off touchdown after rushing the ball 40 times that game.
The Dolphins don’t have a 40 or even 30-carry-per-game back, but they have four guys who can carry it 10-plus times.
Should they win at the lines, Miami could deal the defending Super Bowl champs a loss.
