Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, a sport that could use more David Shaws, not fewer:
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Fourth Quarter
Can Anyone Here Shock the World?
As noted in the First Quarter, The Dash is no great fan of conference championship games. But they are being played, and fans will watch, and perhaps something surprising and impactful will happen after all. A quick Dash look at the 10 FBS league title games this week, with picks.
SEC (31): LSU (9–3) vs. Georgia (12–0).
Time and place: Saturday at 4 p.m. on CBS, in Atlanta.
Line: Georgia by 16.5.
Potential College Football Playoff impact: If Georgia wins it should solidify its hold on the No. 1 seed. If Georgia loses, the Bulldogs likely will slip from that perch while remaining in the field. LSU is out of the running, thanks to a dreadful performance at Texas A&M Saturday.
Shock The World threat level: Low. The only way this gets dicey is if Georgia turns the ball over three or more times. Kirby Smart’s team has played one game all season in which it didn’t have at least a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. That was at Missouri in early October, and the Bulldogs actually trailed in the fourth before rallying. Before and after that strange night, they have not wobbled at all. Hard to envision LSU doing something nobody else has done this year.
Dash pick: Georgia 35, LSU 13. The Bulldogs have reverted more to a ground-and-pound identity in the final third of the season, running the ball 60.7 percent of the time in the last four games vs. 48.4 percent in the first eight. But playing indoors against an LSU defense that ranks 11th in the SEC in passes surrendered of 20 yards or longer (40) and 30 yards or longer (17), Stetson Bennett may get a few more chances to air it out.
Kyle Robertson/USA TODAY NETWORK
Big Ten (32): Purdue (8–4) vs. Michigan (12–0).
Time and place: Saturday at 8 p.m. on Fox, in Indianapolis.
Line: Michigan by 16.
Potential College Football Playoff impact: If Michigan wins and Georgia wins, the Wolverines are the likely No. 2 playoff seed. If Michigan wins and Georgia loses, the Wolverines could ascend to No. 1. If Michigan loses it likely is still in the field but at No. 3 or 4. Purdue is out of the running.
Shock The World threat level: Moderate. This should be a Wolverines walkover, but the X Factor here is Jeff Brohm, upset warlock. His Boilermakers have taken down teams ranked No. 2 twice (Ohio State in 2018 and Iowa last year) and No. 3 once (Michigan State last year). This season they beat two teams ranked at the time, both on the road (Minnesota and Illinois). Not saying it’s likely, and might not even be close, but Michigan should have its guard up.
Dash pick: Michigan 27, Purdue 14. The Boilermakers may actually back their safeties up to an acceptable level to limit gains of, say, 50-plus yards—something Ohio State didn’t get around to last week. But they’re still susceptible to some big plays. We’ll see if the Wolverines can hit them two games in a row. Even if they can’t, they have sufficient firepower to win this fairly comfortably—with or without Blake Corum.
Big 12 (33): Kansas State (9–3) vs. TCU (12–0).
Time and place: Saturday at noon on ABC, in Arlington, Texas.
Line: TCU by 2.5.
Potential College Football Playoff impact: TCU stays in with a win. If the Horned Frogs win and Georgia and/or Michigan lose, they should move up from No. 3. If all three win, TCU still should be No. 3. If the Frogs lose close, they could well still be in the bracket. If they are blown out they could be sweating until noon Sunday. Kansas State is out of the running.
Shock The World threat level: High. First of all, it really wouldn’t be a shock when the spread is 2.5 points. Secondly, K-State has had time now to reconfigure itself around pocket-passing quarterback Will Howard after hitching its wagon to dual-threat Adrian Martinez, who was injured in the first meeting with TCU. And although the Horned Frogs broke their cycle of close wins last week, they still feel like a team addicted to drama.
Dash pick: TCU 34, Kansas State 31. The Hypnotoads have their oscillating eyes on the playoff prize now, no stopping them. The defense must contain Deuce Vaughn, but Max Duggan & Co. will again be able to spring some big plays on the Wildcats as they did in the first meeting. TCU hasn’t had a negative turnover margin in a game this season, and if that trend continues it will be playoff-bound for sure by mid-afternoon Saturday.
Pac-12 (34): Utah (9–3) vs. USC (11–1).
Time and place: Friday at 8 p.m. on Fox, in Las Vegas.
Line: USC by one.
Potential College Football Playoff impact: If USC wins, it should clinch a spot. If USC wins and any of the teams ahead of it lose, they could move up—and potentially avoid playing Georgia in Atlanta. If USC loses a close game, the Trojans could be pitted against Ohio State and Alabama in a resumé contest for the fourth spot. If USC is blown out, that spot could fall to either the Buckeyes or Crimson Tide. Utah is out of the running.
Shock The World threat level: High. Like TCU-Kansas State, this wouldn’t be a real shocker. The Utes are good enough to take down the Trojans, having already done it once. They match up well with USC.
Dash pick: USC 41, Utah 31. Here’s the thing about that loss in Salt Lake City in October—it was on the verge of being a USC blowout a couple of different times. The Trojans led by two touchdowns at three separate points in the game, and a couple of borderline roughing the passer calls greatly aided Utah drives. The Utes never led until the final minute of the game. They do present some problems to a susceptible USC defense, most notably tight end Dalton Kincaid, but Caleb Williams is the best player in the country and could lead a front-running victory.
ACC (35): North Carolina (9–3) vs. Clemson (10–2).
Time and place: Saturday at 8 p.m. on ABC, in Charlotte.
Line: Clemson by 7.5.
Potential College Football Playoff impact: None.
Dash pick: Clemson 37, North Carolina 28. The Tigers have been lit up by two quarterbacks this season, Sam Hartman of Wake Forest and Spencer Rattler of South Carolina. Drake Maye certainly has the ability to be the third. But the Tar Heels’ pliant defense could be sufficiently run over and passed upon—by freshman Cade Klubnik?—to make Maye’s passing a moot point. The Clemson dynasty is in decline, but they’ll still make winning a seventh ACC championship in eight years a point of pride.
Tyler Kaufman/AP
American (36): Central Florida (9–3) at Tulane (10–2).
Time and place: Saturday at 4 p.m. on ABC, in New Orleans.
Line: Tulane by 2.5.
Potential College Football Playoff impact: None.
Dash pick: UCF 41, Tulane 38. There is plenty of uncertainty hovering over this game. Will dual-threat Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee be able to go after suffering a hamstring injury last week against South Florida? Does Green Wave coach Willie Fritz have a foot out the door for Georgia Tech? Answers are in short supply. But UCF can confidently turn to backup quarterback Mikey Keene, who led the Knights against USF after Plumlee went down and has played a lot of college football. Worth tuning in to check out Tulane running back Tyjae Spears, who likely has an NFL future.
Sun Belt (37): Coastal Carolina (9–2) at Troy (10–2).
Time and place: Saturday at 3:30 p.m. on ESPN, in Troy, Alabama.
Line: Troy by 7.
Potential College Football Playoff impact: None.
Dash pick: Troy 26, Coastal Carolina 17. The nationally under-appreciated coach of the year might be Troy’s Jon Sumrall, who in his first season has gone 10–2 and won nine straight games. The Trojans haven’t allowed 20 points in a game since Oct. 1, and that defense could be problematic for a Coastal offense that again figures to be without injured star quarterback Grayson McCall. Coastal coach Jamey Chadwell has had his name in the hopper for a couple of jobs, which certainly didn’t help the Chanticleers’ performance in being blown out by James Madison last week.
Mountain West (38): Fresno State (8–4) at Boise State (9–3).
Time and place: Saturday at 4 p.m. on Fox, in Boise, Idaho.
Line: Boise State by 5.
Potential College Football Playoff impact: none.
Dash pick: Boise State 35, Fresno State 28. The Broncos beat the Bulldogs by 20 points earlier this year, but Fresno was without star quarterback Jake Haener for that one. Expect a closer game this time, but if Boise is going to romp for 316 rushing yards again, expect the same winner. Both coaches have done a great job this season—Andy Avalos turning around the season at Boise after a rough start, and Jeff Tedford reeling off seven straight wins after a 1–4 start.
Mid-American (39): Toledo (7–5) vs. Ohio (9–3).
Time and place: Saturday at noon on ESPN, in Detroit.
Line: Toledo by 3.5.
Potential College Football Playoff impact: None.
Dash pick: Ohio 39, Toledo 35. The Bobcats are rolling, winners of seven straight by an average margin of 17.4 points. The Rockets are reeling, having lost their last two. Ohio lost star QB Kurtis Rourke to injury but still won last week with capable backup C.J. Harris producing more than 260 yards of total offense and four touchdowns. The Rockets have become very sloppy with the ball in recent weeks, turning it over 16 times in the last five games.
Conference USA (40): North Texas (7–5) at UTSA (10–2).
Time and place: Friday at 7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network, in San Antonio.
Line: UTSA by 7.5.
Potential College Football Playoff impact: None.
Dash pick: UTSA 42, North Texas 35. Veteran quarterbacks Frank Harris of UTSA and Austin Aune of North Texas have combined to throw for more than 15,000 yards in their college careers. In a thrilling regular-season matchup in October, both QBs had more than 300 yards of total offense. Harris and the Roadrunners got the win with a last-minute touchdown drive. Expect another quality matchup this time.
