Western leaders are hoping a round of meetings at a security conference in Munich will put overwhelming pressure on Israel not to press ahead with a ground offensive in Rafah.
Almost all the key figures, save the Iranian foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, will be present in Munich on Friday, including foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar and Jordan. The Israeli president, Isaac Herzog, and foreign minister, Israel Katz, will also attend along with three freed hostages, Raz Ben Ami, Adi Shoham and Aviva Siegel. Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, is flying in too.
The pressure on Israel to avoid a ground offensive is coming from almost all quarters, including allies such as the US, UK, France, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The shadow of a return to the international court of justice and a further Algerian-sponsored UN security council resolution is looming over Israel.
Since Tuesday, Egypt has hosted representatives from the US, Israel’s main supporter, and Qatar, where the Hamas political leadership is based, for talks about a lengthy truce, including the release of more hostages. No breakthrough has been achieved.
Separate, more clandestine, talks are under way to see if Hamas can form a “national consensus government” with the Fatah movement led by the Palestinian Authority (PA) president, Mahmoud Abbas, under the umbrella of the Palestine Liberation Organisation.
Western capitals fear that if Hamas and Israel cannot agree on a pause within days, the Israeli and Hezbollah attacks in Lebanon will escalate, making it difficult for Hamas and Israel to return to the negotiating table.
Hamas is no longer holding out for a permanent ceasefire, but wants a six-week humanitarian pause leading to a ceasefire. Extraneous elements in the original Hamas peace plan, including the future policing of the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, will have to be ditched.
Arab leaders have been reluctant to create a group that formalises multilateral contacts with western countries over the Gaza crisis, including discussions of future governance of Gaza, preferring to hold talks with the US bilaterally. It is not clear, as a result, in what format talks will take place in Munich.
Abbas on Wednesday urged Hamas to “quickly conclude an agreement with Israel” to protect the Palestinian people from “the repercussions of another catastrophe, no less dangerous than the 1948 Nakba”. Hamas is seeking complex guarantees that the ceasefire or pause will be observed by the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
There has also been talk among western diplomats about setting up some sort of international security force with an Arab contingent to enter Gaza after a ceasefire.
Israel is opposed to handing security to a third party in Gaza, as well as to a two-state solution. Netanyahu said on Wednesday that the most important power that had to remain in Israel’s hands was “overriding security control” in the area west of the River Jordan.
Rightwingers in the Israeli government reiterated their total opposition to a Palestinian state.
The UK foreign secretary, David Cameron, has led the west’s call for a Palestinian state to be recognised before the end of the talks between Israelis and Palestinians. The US has said it is reviewing its recognition policy, and Germany broadly supports Lord Cameron’s initiative.
Blinken, in his most recent visit to the region, called for “a practical, time-bound, irreversible path to a Palestinian state living side by side in peace with Israel”. He added: “It’s coming ever more sharply into focus.”
But US recognition of Palestine, a huge step to take, would require the PA to do more to revitalise its democracy, including Abbas handing greater power to the prime minister, Mohammad Shtayyeh. At the end of January, Shtayyeh announced a comprehensive reform programme, including appointing new regional governors, after Abbas sacked 12 in August without giving a reason. However, the programme, including greater independence for the judiciary, lacks any implementation mechanism, including an elected parliament.
The most secret and potentially critical element of the discussion is the possibility of a rapprochement between Hamas and Fatah under the umbrella of the PLO. Talks have repeatedly foundered in the past because the Hamas charter does not recognise Israel. Qatar, apparently, has tried to convince the Hamas leadership it needs to allow a new and unified technocratic leadership to rule Gaza and the West Bank the day after, with elections held at a later date. Iranian sources say Tehran is not opposed to this, a message relayed to the UK Foreign Office.
Some western countries, including the UK, insist Hamas cannot remain in power and the leadership must be exiled to reassure Israel its security will be defended. At the same time, UK officials acknowledge Hamas is more than a military force.
The head of UN humanitarian affairs, Martin Griffiths, said it would be difficult to imagine a peace deal that excluded Hamas.
Abbas, in an interview with the Arabic international paper Asharq Al-Awsat, said the PA would be ready to govern Gaza “immediately upon cessation of aggression against our people”.
He added that peace was dependent on recognition of Palestinian statehood secured through full UN membership, and that an international peace conference would be needed to provide guarantees and a timeline detailing the end of Israel’s occupation.
