As the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, the peace process, such as it is, mirrors more than ever the stalemate on the battlefield – slow, attritional progress getting stuck in the mud of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
Neither side is within sight of anything that resembles victory. Both sides believe that even if they cannot win, they need not, indeed must not, lose or be seen to lose. Hence the lack of urgency in the ceasefire negotiations in Geneva, brokered, with bias to Moscow, by the Americans.
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