Legendary head coach Marv Levy is justifiably in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and one primary reason is that, from 1990 through 1993, he led the Buffalo Bills to four straight Super Bowls. No other coach has ever done that.
The problem, of course, is that the Bills lost all four of those Super Bowls. The Bills capped off the old millennium with a handful of wild-card and divisional round losses under Levy and then Wade Philips, and then entered a postseason drought that started in 2000. and lasted until 2017.
Now, things are different. With perhaps the most stacked roster in the league and a superstar quarterback in Josh Allen, there’s little doubt that the Bills are Super Bowl-ready. They may have been last season were it not for a heartbreaking loss and defensive implosion in the divisional round to the Kansas City Chiefs, but in our preseason power rankings, we have the Bills as the NFL’s best team — and 2022 as the season in which the Bills win their first league championship since 1965, in the old American Football League.
Of course, there are all kinds of teams who could knock them from that dream. On the other side of things, there are NFL teams rebuilding, just trying to tread water, confident but with concerns, and on the precipice of something special.
As the 2022 preseason begins, here are our first power rankings of the new NFL campaign.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Sports Info Solutions, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).
32. Atlanta Falcons
Outside of tight end Kyle Pitts and cornerback A.J. Terrell (here at Touchdown Wire, we refer to him as “The criminally underrated A.J. Terrell“), the Falcons head into the 2022 season with a distinct lack of elite talent on their roster. At quarterback, there will be a battle between veteran Marcus Mariota and rookie Desmond Ridder. The receiver group, pitted by Calvin Ridley’s season-long suspension, may struggle, and though right guard Chris Lindstrom is also underrated, first-year left guard Jalen Mayfield struggled as few offensive linemen did last season. Expect offensive weapon Cordarrelle Patterson to be the standout player in the run game, though BYU bruiser Tyler Allgeier could add something, especially in power situations.
There are a couple of potential standouts on defense — most notably cornerback Casey Hayward — but in this season, head coach Arthur Smith will have to do the best he can with what he’s got. It’s one of those unfortunate situations in which a team is hamstrung with its talent in the throes of a major rebuild.
31. Chicago Bears
If the Falcons have the NFL’s most wince-inducing roster, the Bears aren’t far behind. New general manager Ryan Poles is picking up the slack from former general manager Ryan Pace, and so far… yeesh. At least Justin Fields won’t be thrown off a cliff every week with Matt Nagy’s ridiculous game plans, and there are ways in which new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy can make things better for Fields. But there isn’t much at receiver, though Darnell Mooney has shown potential, and rookie Velus Jones Jr. has impressed in training camp.
On defense, the Bears are dealing with much of the same secondary that got absolutely torched last season against deep passes (11 touchdowns and no interceptions against passes of 20 or more air yards), though rookie cornerback Kyler Gordon and rookie safety Jaquan Brisker should help). Expect new head coach and former Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus to employ more of his preferred two-high looks to try and stop the damage.
They do have a top-tier linebacker in Roquan Smith… but that’s an issue right now.
#Bears All-Pro LB Roquan Smith has requested a trade. pic.twitter.com/x4vmOMhROt
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 9, 2022
The Bears are under construction, and the best thing that can happen for them this season is Fields’ ascent, limited by that receiver group and a questionable offensive line as it may be.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
On defense, the Jags added first overall pick Travon Walker to the fold, and Walker showed up in the Hall of Fame game to great import. We should not worry about his low pressure numbers at Georgia. Jacksonville also added linebackers Devin Lloyd and Chad Muma in the draft, and both project as starters with plus traits over time.
It’s far too soon to project any kind of epic turnaround for this team, but the uptick in coaching is obviously massive, and there are a lot of things to like on the roster. We may look back in time and wonder why we had the Jaguars this low to start.
29. Carolina Panthers
So, Panthers head coach Matt Rhule recently made his team run gassers because he was upset that receiver Rashard Higgins celebrated a big catch from Baker Mayfield by celebrating around and in the end zone. Perhaps Rhule was unsure what a touchdown pass looked like; only the Jaguars had fewer of them (12) than Carolina’s 14. Rhule has not yet decided whether Mayfield or Sam Darnold will be his starting quarterback in 2022; Mayfield should take that battle on pure talent… but with Rhule, you just never know. He has a 10-23 record over his first two NFL seasons, and he’ll have to swim uphill to avoid adding his name to the long list of successful college coaches who should have stayed put in the NCAA.
The Panthers do have a roster to be at least competitive, especially with a drastically improved offensive line. And if Rhule turns the fact that he’s probably coaching for his job this season into a positive, maybe the Panthers will surprise a few people from time to time.
28. Seattle Seahawks
Generally speaking, the same people responsible for a team’s rebuild aren’t allowed to be the architects of that rebuild. But Seahawks general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll earned enough equity in the first half of the previous decade to put themselves in position to do just that. Trading Russell Wilson for a whole bunch of draft capital was a questionable move, especially considering how badly this team had drafted over the second half of the previous decade.
At least the Seahawks seemed to break that trend with a very solid draft in which they tagged undervalued assets instead of overvalued prospects. Offensive tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, running back Kenneth Walker III, edge-rusher Boye Mafe, and cornerbacks Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen all look to have a lot of potential. And there are a few studs on the current roster, led perhaps by safety Quandre Diggs, one of the NFL’s best.
But of course, where the discussion starts and ends with the 2022 Seahawks is what life will look like without Russell Wilson for the first time since 2011. Wilson covered up a host of offensive sins through his tenure in the Emerald City, and with Geno Smith and Drew Lock battling it out for the starting job, wethinks we’re about to find out just how much that was the case. The 2022 Seahawks are playing, to a large degree, for the 2023 draft.
27. New York Giants
The Giants have a new general manager in Joe Schoen and a new head coach in Brian Daboll, so perhaps those two guys can right the ship for a team that hasn’t sniffed the playoffs since 2016, and hasn’t won a playoff game since they bagged Super Bowl XLVI at the end of the 2011 season.
Some coaching continuity would help. Big Blue has cycled through five head coaches since Tom Coughlin’s time ended in 2015. Ownership has tended to go with overwhelmed autocrats, and Daboll isn’t that, so there’s an improvement right there.
Daboll got this job primarily because, as the Bills’ offensive coordinator, he was able to help Josh Allen transform from a toolsy unknown to one of the game’s best quarterbacks. Now, he’ll turn his attention to Daniel Jones, who is nowhere near as toolsy, but is equally unknown as an NFL prospect. This is Jones’ fourth season, the team didn’t pick up his fifth-year option, so if things don’t go well here, expect wholesale changes in 2023. (History suggests that things will not go well). Perhaps that’s when Daboll gets his guy (whoever that may be), and the rebuilding process can accelerate.
26. Detroit Lions
Speaking of teams with quarterback issues… in 2021, Lions head coach Dan Campbell discovered what Rams head coach Sean McVay had known for a long time: When Jared Goff is your quarterback, you’re going to spend far too much time watching Goff bang his his head on his own low ceiling, and there’s no soundbite that will fix it. 2022 marks the final season in which Goff’s Rams contract isn’t onerous to escape from a dead money perspective, so consider Goff on the hook. In this regard, the 2022 Lions are playing for 2023 to a point.
Outside of that, and if Goff can improve, there are reasons for encouragement regarding Detroit’s ability to transcend last season’s 3-13-1 record. We’ll start with running back Jamaal Williams, who REALLY doesn’t want any more of that.
Don't think these tears are coming from a weak mindset, I will run you over while crying 😤
🎥: @NFLFilms pic.twitter.com/XxeE24B5vf
— Jamaal Williams (@jswaggdaddy) August 8, 2022
2021 rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown was among the league’s most productive receivers in the second half of the season, 2022 first-round receiver Jameson Wiliams has a Tyreek Hill-level skill set he’ll be able to show again when healthy, and Goff seems to have developed a nice chemistry with free-agent acquisition DJ Chark (doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo).
Is this what you’ve been waiting for?@DJChark82 | #LionsCamp https://t.co/iUxX6Kz1LO pic.twitter.com/pzP07C99q5
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) August 5, 2022
Detroit’s offensive line is, believe it or not, one of the NFL’s best. The defense has some nice pieces as well, especially when you factor in first-round edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson. Charles Harris, Romeo Okwara, and Julian Okwara are pass-rushers with potential, IDL Alim McNeill has shown some things, and cornerback Amani Oruwariye had six interceptions in his third NFL season.
For now, this team will go as far as Goff can take them. In 2023, there may well be a new star under center — and a new hope for the Lions.
25. New York Jets
Give Joe Douglas credit — the Jets’ general manager absolutely nailed free agency and the draft in 2022. The free-agent additions of guard Laken Tomlinson, tight end C.J. Uzomah, edge-rusher Jacob Martin, cornerback D.J. Reed, and safety Jordan Whitehead gave head coach Robert Saleh top-tier players at positions of need. Left tackle Mekhi Becton’s potentially season-ending knee injury is a big hit, though.
And in the draft — well, the Jets had three first-round picks, and it’s impossible to argue with any of them. Cornerback Sauce Gardner, receiver Garrett Wilson, and edge-rusher Jermaine Johnson could each credibly be thought of as the best players at their positions in this draft class, and Saleh finally has the talent he needs to turn around what was the NFL’s worst pass defense in 2021.
Now, the pressure is on second-year quarterback Zach Wilson to hem in his YOLO tendencies and channel them into more explosive plays for his own team, as opposed to gifts for the Jets’ opponents. Seven of Wilson’s 11 interceptions came in September, while in December and January, he had a 5-1 TD/INT split. So maybe that process has already started.
24. Houston Texans
Don’t look now, but a Texans team that has justifiably been the joke of the NFL for a while now is improving. We start at quarterback, where rookie Davis Mills exceeded expectations in 2021, allowing general manager Nick Caserio and his staff to throw their draft picks and free-agent dollars at other problems.
Houston is still light at receiver, and the offensive line has question marks, though left tackle Laremy Tunsil and first-round guard Kenyon Green should present a formidable left side — if Tunsil is healthy. The Texans did commit a bit of absolute larceny in the fourth round of the draft, where they stole Florida’s Dameon Pierce, our RB1, and Pierce is already making favorable impressions in training camp.
The secondary is where things could be really interesting for head coach Lovie Smith. The Texans already had underrated slot defender Tavierre Thomas, and in the draft, they picked up LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., and Baylor do-it-all safety Jalen Pitre, who looks like a young Tyrann Mathieu. If Stingley balls out at his 2019 level, that’s a CB1 right there.
Yes, the Texans still have a lot of work to do with their roster. But they’re not quite the rudderless ship they used to be.
23. Washington Commanders
There are likely two things that will keep the Commanders from ascending much further up this list in 2022: The up-and-down (to be kind) play of new quarterback Carson Wentz, and a defense that, despite a roster stacked from front to back, were busting coverages all over the place in 2021 and ranked 27th in Defensive DVOA. When you have that much talent doing that many weird things, you tend to look at the coaches… and in this case, defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio? We are indeed looking at you.
Now, Washington’s defense did rise from 28th in the first half of the season to 16th in the second half, and DVOA is opponent-adjusted, so there’s some legitimacy to that.
As for Wentz? A recent training camp practice summed it all up.
Carson Wentz has had a rough day. Many passes thrown over the head of his receiver or too far in front.
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) August 6, 2022
Video of Carson Wentz's back-shoulder fade to Terry McLaurin to end practice (via @commanders on IG) pic.twitter.com/gcfoWXp20Z
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) August 7, 2022
Which is… pretty much what you get from Wentz. The occasional Hall of Fame throw, and a lot of mystery meat in the middle. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner will be charged with tempering the variance, and we say, best of luck to him.
22. Miami Dolphins
At the same time the Dolphins are trying to figure out it Tua Tagovailoa is their franchise quarterback, and whether new head coach Mike McDaniel is the guy to get him there (or not), there’s all the off-field stuff to deal with. The franchise was hit hard by the NFL for tampering, got off scot-free for what certainly looks like tanking (“We were just kidding!” defenses aside), and there’s still the lawsuit brought by former head coach Brian Flores for racist hiring (and firing) practices.
Whew. With all that out of the way, what of the Dolphins on the field? The trade for Tyreek Hill obviously gives Tagovailoa an estimable deep weapon, Jaylen Waddle proved in his rookie season to be a truly dynamic yards-after-catch threat, and the addition of left tackle Terron Armstead drastically improves an offensive line that was one of the NFL’s worst in 2021. The draft was pretty limited for the Dolphins this time around, but a defense with some serious talent added Georgia linebacker Channing Tindall, and he could be explosive. The cautious ranking is based on Tagovailoa’s potential, whether McDaniel can take on this kind of role, and the potential for all this off-field stuff to take its toll.
21. New England Patriots
This offseason, Bill Belichick replaced former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels (now the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders) with former and current assistants Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Fans of the Lions and Giants, respectively, who watched Patricia and Judge run their teams into the ground as head coaches are unimpressed. And so far, New England’s offense looks abysmal in training camp as the team tries to work in all kinds of new wrinkles that may or may not fit the current personnel.
At some point, Belichick will have to turn this car around. Right now, he’s probably just as worried about a defense that is now without cornerback J.C. Jackson (who got paid by the Chargers this offseason) and may not have an actual CB1 on the roster.
How many times over the last two decades have we said that the Patriots are about to run aground, only to be proven wrong at season’s end? Yes, we’ve all learned our collective lessons with Belichick. But right now? It’s pretty dicey. That’s all we’re saying.
20. Arizona Cardinals
Is it a bad sign that the Cardinals tried to get a film study provision in Kyler Murray’s recent contract extension, and then had to rescind it when public reaction was profoundly negative? It wasn’t a great look for Murray or the team. Still, Murray is now in the fold beyond the 2022 season. The question now it, what will head coach Kliff Kingsbury and his staff do to maximize Murray’s potential? Kingsbury has been mostly static with his personnel groupings, and he’s eschewed pre-snap motion even though it’s proven to be of great benefit to his offense. There were times last season when Murray looked like an MVP candidate, and there were times when he looked as if he shouldn’t even be on the field.
No matter what has happened in the past, Kingsbury and Murray must now work together to take this team to the proverbial next level. As we have seen, there’s only so far they can go when working at cross purposes.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers
Who will be the Steelers’ starting quarterback in 2022? Your guess is as good as ours. The competition between veterans Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky, and Kenny Pickett looks as if it will go through the preseason, and while Pickett as the inside track over time as a first-round pick, he’s been up-and-down so far. As have been all of Ben Roethlisberger’s potential replacements.
In theory, whoever starts for this team should have an impressive group of receivers. Second-round pick George Pickens had first-round talent outside of injury setbacks, fourth-round pick Calvin Austin continues the franchise trend of finding smaller, smaller-school receivers who can ball, and Diontae Johnson has a new “prove it” deal allowing him to do exactly that.
On defense, the hope is that former Bengals and Browns interior defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi can reinforce a line that was great with Stephon Tuitt in 2020, and much less so without him in 2021. Cameron Heyward had to be Superman most of the time without Tuitt, and when Heyward was off the field, Pittsburgh’s run defense fell completely apart.
Mike Tomlin is heading into his 16th season as the Steelers’ head coach, and he’s never had a losing campaign. We’re not estimating that he’ll have one in 2022, but the quarterback thing bears watching.
18. Minnesota Vikings
Kevin O’Connell has replaced Mike Zimmer as the Vikings’ head coach, and O’Connell — the former Rams offensive coordinator, and yet another branch of the Sean McVay coaching tree — has already said that he wants a more wide-open, less predictable, more diversified offense. That could be great news for quarterback Kirk Cousins, running back Dalvin Cook, and receiver Justin Jefferson, who might be the NFL’s most underrated player at his position.
That said, O’Connell isn’t the coach with the uphill battle. That would be defensive coordinator Ed Donatell, who has been charged with improving a squad that ranked 17th overall in Defensive DVOA, and plummeted from 10th to 22nd in the second half of the season. That was the primary reason for Minnesota’s 8-9 record, and it will be the primary reason for their third straight season without a playoff game if things don’t improve.
17. Indianapolis Colts
The 2021 Colts came into their regular-season finale looking for a postseason berth, and facing a Jacksonville Jaguars team still reeling from the Urban Meyer Experience. It should have been a walk. It was, but in the wrong direction. Indianapolis’ 26-11 loss, in which Carson Wentz took six sacks and gave up two turnovers — wasn’t just a season-ending disappointment. It bought about a full course correction that saw Wentz shipped off to the Washington Commanders, and Matt Ryan brought in from the Falcons to replace Wentz.
The Colts have tried and failed to solidify their quarterback situation ever since Andrew Luck’s bombshell retirement in 2019. Ryan might be the guy to take this team in hand in that regard. While he’s not quite what he has been at the peak of his career, he’s wickedly smart, relatively mistake-proof, and he’s worked well in just about every offensive system.
The Colts have just about everything else going for them to at least a pretty-good degree. With less quarterback variance in the building, maybe they can live up to expectations this time around.
16. Tennessee Titans
On the surface, it looked like the Titans improved a bit in 2021. They had a 12-5 regular-season record compared to 11-5 the year before, and they made it to the divisional round, losing to the eventual AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals. But there were other issues afoot, and they showed up down the road. Derrick Henry missed the second half of the regular season with a foot injury. He returned for Tennessee’s lone playoff game last season, rushing 20 times for 62 yards and a touchdown. Henry was on pace to lead the league in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns for the third year in a row before his injury, and if that workload hasn’t taken something out of him, he will return as the epicenter of the Titans’ offense.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill became the focal point after Henry’s injury, and that didn’t always work out. Tannehill led the league in third-down interceptions in the 2021 season, and his three picks in the playoff loss to the Bengals overshadowed Tennessee’s defense sacking Joe Burrow nine times. So, the defense is pretty much on point. It’s whether Henry can come back at full force, and whether Tannehill can cut down on the key errors — that will decide this team’s 2022 season to a great degree.
15. New Orleans Saints
The Saints didn’t miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016 because of their defense. New Orleans finished third in Defensive DVOA last season, second the year before, and Football Outsiders projects them to have the NFL’s best defense in 2022. Adding Tyrann Mathieu to that unit makes that a distinct possibility.
What scuttled Sean Payton’s team (now Dennis Allen’s team) in 2021 was a post-Drew Brees quarterback situation that really went downhill once Jameis Winston was lost for the season in Week 8 with a torn ACL. Winston had done a lot to remove the randomness that basically ended his career with the Buccaneers, and made him the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season. Last season, he threw 14 touchdown passes to just three interceptions, was particularly outstanding when given the benefits of play-action and pre-snap motion, and if Winston comes back strong (especially with the re-insertion of receiver Michael Thomas, who missed the entire 2021 season with an ankle injury), the Saints have everything else to be serious contenders.
Why are they ranked so low here? Because if there’s no Winston, there’s not much at quarterback. Andy Dalton, Ian Book, and Taysom Hill ain’t gonna do it.
14. Cleveland Browns
Right now, Deshaun Watson is facing a six-game suspension for his multiple alleged sexual assaults. That number may or may not increase upon the NFL’s appeal. That, we do not yet know. What we do know is that Watson didn’t play a single down of football in 2021 as these terrible stories came out, and we have no idea what he’ll look like when he does get back on the field. Whenever that is.
We also know that what Watson looks like when he gets back on the field is the secondary story. The Browns are now in a mess of their own making at the game’s most important position. They alienated and then traded Baker Mayfield, Jacoby Brissett is poised to start however many games, and the whole Watson drams has been a catastrophic black eye for the entire organization.
Outside of that particular disaster, the Browns are a deep team with talent all over the roster. But what will that matter as they carry this weight through the season? We can but wait and see.
13. Philadelphia Eagles
The time is now for Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts to succeed, or step aside. His team has done as much as it possibly can to build the right environment around him. Hurts has an estimable group of targets, led by new acquisition A.J. Brown. Philly’s offensive line is the only one in the NFL to place four of its players in our recent list of the top players at their respective positions: Center Jason Kelce, guard Landon Dickerson, and tackles Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata. The run game isn’t among the NFL’s best, but to his credit, Hurts has been his own force in that department. He was able run very effectively last season, especially out of 11 personnel.
Our ranking of the Eagles is based in part on a hesitation regarding Hurts’ ultimate upside as a passer. It’s also based on a defense that ranked 25th overall in DVOA last season, and 25th against the pass. The addition of former Giants star cornerback James Bradberry will certainly help, as will first-round defensive tackle/small planet Jordan Davis, who is already making quite the impression in training camp.
Jordan Davis’ strength is no joke 😳 (via @Rich_Bussey) pic.twitter.com/RyyE9IqgIS
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) August 8, 2022
It’s entirely possible that everything comes together for the Eagles, and they win their first NFC East title since 2019. We’re just a bit cautious about a few things at this point.
12. Las Vegas Raiders
Before we make too much of running back Josh Jacobs’ playing time during the Hall of Fame game, and whether that means Jacobs and the Raiders are done with each other, remember what new head coach Josh McDaniels had to say about Jacobs at the scouting combine.
Asked McDaniels about Josh Jacobs and picking up the 5th-year option. #Raiders pic.twitter.com/DHddoPCfBM
— Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) March 2, 2022
We had Jacobs as our eighth-best back in the NFL in our recent player rankings, so the thought of the Raiders moving on from Jacobs makes little sense to us.
The Raiders have other things to worry about, anyway. The AFC West is setting up to be a complete bloodbath in 2022, and even with Davante Adams on the roster, they’re coming up short in a few areas. Outside of left tackle Kolton Miller, the offensive line is still recovering from what Tom Cable did to it — 2021 right tackle Brandon Parker, who allowed the fourth-most pressures among all offensive tackles last season, allowed three sacks and a pressure in less than one half of the Hall of Fame game.
On defense, the edge combination of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby will be a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks, but if said quarterbacks are able to extend the play, who’s defending those opposing receivers? The Raiders lost Casey Hayward, their best defensive back in 2021, to the Falcons in free agency, so shootouts could be the order of the day.
11. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys won the NFC East with a 12-5 record in 2021, Dak Prescott recovered nicely from 2020’s horrific injuries, and Micah Parsons was the runaway Defensive Rookie of the Year — I argued that Parsons should have been the Defensive Player of the Year, so there you go. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn did an unbelievable job of turning things around on that side of the ball; in his first season in Dallas, the Cowboys jumped from 23rd in Defensive DVOA in 2020 to second behind the Bills in 2021.
Everything seems in place for a deep playoff run, which this team hasn’t experienced since the 1995 season — the last time they won a Super Bowl, and the last time they got past the divisional round. One point of concern is receiver depth — CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup are still around (though Gallup may not be ready to go Week 1 as he recovers from a torn ACL), but Amari Cooper (Browns) and Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Dolphins) are gone, which may leave Prescott in the lurch a bit.
One bit of advice for Cowboys opponents: DO NOT BLITZ DAK PRESCOTT. Last season, against five or more pass-rushers, Prescott completed 106 of 169 passes for 1,182 yards, 649 air yards, a league-high 23 touchdowns (Aaron Rodgers ranked second against the blitz with 15 touchdowns), and just four interceptions. Consider yourselves warned, guys.
10. Los Angeles Chargers
On offense, the Chargers have everything you want. A budding superstar in quarterback Justin Herbert. A deep receiver group. Perhaps the NFL’s most underrated running back in Austin Ekeler. Left tackle Rashawn Slater hit the ground at 1,000 miles per hour in his rookie season and played like an All-Pro from the start, and 2022 first-rounder Zion Johnson could be just as formidable at guard. There is the small matter of right tackle Storm Norton allowing approximately 327 pressures per game (this may be a slight exaggeration), but we’ll err on the positive side when it comes to the Chargers’ offense.
The defense is mostly solid, too. The additions of edge-rusher Khalil Mack and cornerback J.C. Jackson should make Brandon Staley’s defense even more formidable, except for this team’s obvious Achilles heel in 2021 — their run defense. It was one of the NFL’s worst, and it kept this team out of the postseason, as Raiders back Josh Jacobs blew it up for 132 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries in the Week 18 all-in game to decide which team would make the postseason. The Chargers allowed 174 rushing yards and 190 passing yards in that game, which neatly encapsulated a season-long struggle. The Chargers will try to solve this by committee as opposed to with one force multiplier, but that might be an uphill battle.
9. Baltimore Ravens
How bad was the Ravens’ injury luck in 2021? How long is a piece of string? Football Outsiders has a metric called Adjusted Games Lost, which tracks the losses of impact players to injury. The metric currently goes back to 2001, and no team had a higher AGL in a season than last year’s Ravens. It wasn’t even close. Their AGL of 191.2 far outpaced the 2016 Chicago Bears, who had ranked first, at 171.6.
The good news for the Ravens is that generally, horrific injury luck tends to return to normal the following year, and it can’t get any worse than it was. That’s one point of optimism. A second point is the idea that Lamar Jackson, fresh off his offseason tour just missing everybody’s top-10 quarterback lists, can find ways to improve as a pure thrower, and can take advantage of a supporting cast that isn’t leaving the field all the time. There’s nothing stopping the Ravens from exploring the postseason for a good long time — except for those two things. Injury luck, and Lamar Jackson playing at his best.
8. San Francisco 49ers
Over the last three seasons, the 49ers have lost a Super Bowl and an NFC Championship game, and in both losses, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s limitations came to the forefront. Garoppolo has come as far as Kyle Shanahan’s genius, and his own skill set, will take him. That’s why the 49ers traded a ton of capital to take North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance with the third pick in the 2021 draft, and that’s why, after a season of seasoning, Lance will be Shanahan’s starter in 2022 and beyond.
Lance doesn’t yet have Garoppolo’s command of the game, but he isn’t far behind, and it’s easy to see why Shanahan is betting that Lance will catch up sooner than later. He can make every throw, he adds an amazing element of mobility to what is already the NFL’s toughest run game to solve, and he’ll allow Shanahan to break out entire chapters of his playbook he’s had to keep hidden for years.
Beyond that, things look pretty good. Deebo Samuel has a new contract, Trent Williams is the NFL’s best left tackle by an absolutely crushing margin, and first-year defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans was already getting some nascent head coach talk after a brilliant 2021 season.
2022 may not be the year in which Trey Lance becomes everything he can be — but this may be the year in which he doesn’t yet have to for the 49ers to retrace their steps to the NFL’s highest altitudes.
7. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs will be different this season; that we know for sure. Outside of Patrick Mahomes, the two most important players on the team from recent years may have been receiver Tyreek Hill and defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, and both are gone — Hill in a trade to the Dolphins, and Mathieu in free agency to the Saints.
What does that mean? It means that a combination of receivers (likely led by Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and possibly rookie Skyy Moore) will have to replicate Hill’s explosive play potential in a committee, and other DBs (free-agent safety Justin Reid at the top of the list) will have to replicate Mathieu’s versatility and uncanny coverage sense. These changes don’t necessarily punt the Chiefs from the top of the AFC West, which has become the most brutally competitive division in the NFL — but it’ll be interesting to see how those changes manifest themselves in 2022.
Another thing to clock in the new season: Do Mahomes and Andy Reid have an answer for all the two-high coverage Mahomes saw last season? Kansas City’s deep passing game wasn’t quite what it had been in previous years as a result. How the Chiefs adjust to all the adjustments will be a major story.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady turned 45 on August 3, which means that he’s about to become the second quarterback in NFL history to take snaps at that age. In 1972, George Blanda completed five of 15 passes for 77 yards and a touchdown at age 45 for the Oakland Raiders. We have a sneaking suspicion that Mr. Brady will outstrip those numbers.
Everything seems fine on the offensive side of the ball in Tampa, as long as the receivers can stay healthy and new addition Russell Gage fits in. Where the Bucs need better luck is in the secondary. They put 14 different combinations of their five starting defensive backs on the field last season, and while the results were better than expected (and second-year safety Antoine Winfield Jr. became the alpha of the group), you’d like to see a bit more continuity. So would new head coach and former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, we’re sure.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
2021’s Cinderella team went from 4-11-1 in 2020 to 10-7 in the 2021 regular season, and a near-Super Bowl win despite an offensive line that was… well, offensive in pass protection. The Bengals did all they could to reinforce that group with the free-agent additions of Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, and La’el Collins. If Joe Burrow doesn’t have to run for his life all the time, that can only be good for the offense.
But it’s Cincinnati’s defense that could be the interesting group in 2022. Lou Anarumo’s squad seemed to get the hang of his concepts as the season went along, and there’s a lot of talent there — stars Trey Hendrickson, Chidobe Awuzie, and Jessie Bates, and underrated players Logan Wilson, Mike Hilton, D.J. Reader, and B.J. Hill. That may be the key if the Bengals are to return to the NFL’s biggest game, going through the AFC gauntlet as they’ll need to.
4. Denver Broncos
At the end of the 2020 season, the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl after adding Tom Brady to their roster. After all, they were only a quarterback away.
At the end of the 2021 season, the Rams won the Super Bowl after adding Matthew Stafford to their roster. After all, they were only a quarterback away.
The Broncos hope to make that three in a row after the blockbuster trade for Russell Wilson this offseason, and there’s some weight to that idea. Even with receiver Tim Patrick’s unfortunate season-ending ACL injury, Denver is stacked with receivers, Javonte Williams is one of the league’s best running backs, and the offensive line might be the best Wilson’s ever had — admittedly, it’s a low bar after the front fives he had in Seattle.
The defense, led by cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons, has the talent to be estimable if new defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero can put it all together. Given their place in our power rankings, we’re of the opinion that this will happen, and that the Wilson addition will indeed make all (or at least a lot of) the difference.
Were the Broncos only a quarterback away from winning the Super Bowl? Hard to say, but they are no longer only a quarterback away from anything else.
3. Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have a top group of receivers. Stop us if you’ve heard this one before.
This time around, Rodgers may have weight to his complaints. Trading Davante Adams to the Raiders gave general manager Brian Gutekunst extra draft capital, and allowed the Packers to avoid giving Adams the five-year, $140 million contract Las Vegas gave him, but when you lose the NFL’s best receiver, that’s going to be a problem on the field. Green Bay’s offensive splits when Adams was off the field last season went starkly in the wrong direction. Losing Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the Chiefs didn’t really help, either.
So, it’ll have to be a committee. Green Bay does have two fine receiving backs in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, erstwhile Rodgers best buddy Randall Cobb is still around, and fourth-round rookie Romeo Doubs has been blowing it up in training camp.
If the passing game is better than passable, everything should be fine. The aforementioned Jones and Dillon are one of the NFL’s best committees, the offensive line is pretty strong even with David Bakhtiari’s ongoing injury concerns, and the defense Gutekunst and his staff have put together has a Super Bowl look about it. The Packers also hired former Raiders interim head coach Rich Bisaccia to oversee their special teams — special teams that got Green Bay booted out of the playoffs in the divisional round
If it all comes together, Rodgers’ 2022 season could be positively… psychedelic.
2. Los Angeles Rams
If the Rams are to become the first team since the 2003-2004 New England Patriots to repeat as Super Bowl champions, they’ll have to overcome what a lot of one-time champs fail to transcend — a seemingly inevitable talent drain. As the good folks at Football Outsiders point out:
Between retirement, trades, and free agency, the Rams lost two of their top three wide receivers, their leading rusher, two starting offensive linemen, their best edge rusher, their finest linebacker, two of their top three cornerbacks, and an All-Pro punter this offseason.
Well, that’s a bummer. The Rams did pick up receiver Allen Robinson, linebacker Bobby Wagner, and cornerback Troy Hill to stop some of that bleeding, and Hill has been part of this defense before.
But this is why it’s so hard to repeat as Super Bowl champions — players either retire after reaching the highest possible pinnacle (as left tackle Andrew Whitworth did), or they take the extra money frequently given to free agents with the Super Bowl glow. The Rams still have more than enough talent to get back to the biggest game, but the margin for error may be slimmer than it was in 2021.
1. Buffalo Bills
Since we’ve already done the Spoiler Alert thing… yes, we believe that the Bills will win their first Super Bowl. There are several reasons why, and that’s with Josh Allen’s excellence as the given. The Bills ranked first in Defensive DVOA last season, and that defense now has Von Miller and first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam in its ranks. Their offense ranked 10th in DVOA, and they’ve added a couple of potentially explosive rookies in Georgia running back James Cook and Boise State receiver Khalil Shakir. Special teams has been buttressed by sixth-round “Punt God” Matt Araiza from San Diego State.
It’s very tough to poke holes in what general manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have put together. Going back to that Chiefs defeat, it’s easy to speculate that if cornerback Tre’Davious White had been healthy and in, there would have been a different result. White, one of the best at his position in the league, was lost for rest of the season in Week 12 to a torn ACL, and if there are any hiccups in his recovery, that’s one potential issue. You would like to see more of a sustaining running game — Cook and the underrated Devin Singletary are more speed/movement guys — and there are a few issues on the offensive line.
But really, we’re splitting hairs here. The Bills have the NFL’s best team overall, and should be accounted for accordingly.
