Only a few short weeks ago, the bottom half of the Premier League table was garnering more attention than the top, with a two-team title fight not anywhere near as unprecedented as the situation which saw nine clubs battling it out to stay in the division.
On 27 March – just three or four fixtures back – it was Crystal Palace who sat top of that not-so-mini league, with 12th place only good enough to be a mere three points clear of the relegation zone.
It meant any given gameweek could see a number of teams haul themselves away to relative safety, by position at least if not points tally, as clubs took turns giving their supporters the uneasy experience of ending each weekend in the bottom three.
But fast forward to the start of a crucial week of fixtures at the bottom and the nine have become five. Roy Hodgson has taken Palace clear, with three wins and a draw now seeing them...well, 12th– no better off by league position, but a mighty nine points clear of danger. West Ham have likewise managed a revival and both Wolves and Bournemouth have scraped enough non-defeats to be breathing more easily.
Just six matches remain and this week each club plays twice; come next Tuesday, one-third of the remaining opportunities for each club to save themselves will have come and gone. And it’s Leicester City who head into those clashes in the eye of the storm.
It’s worth considering at this juncture just what might be needed to stay up.
Everton currently occupy the last relegation place, in 18th. Extrapolate their current points tally across what remains of the campaign and it doesn’t look pretty – they’d accumulate just 33.25. Given the Premier League are unlikely to bow to mathematical pressure, let’s be kind and call it 34.
If that tally seems low, it’s time for a reassessment of where England’s top flight is these days: the average points haul needed be guaranteed safety in recent years is just 35.
Season |
Team relegated in 18th |
Points tally |
Team safe in 17th |
Points tally |
2021/22 |
Burnley |
35 |
Leeds |
38 |
2020/21 |
Fulham |
28 |
Burnley |
39 |
2019/20 |
Bournemouth |
34 |
Aston Villa |
35 |
2018/19 |
Cardiff |
34 |
Brighton |
36 |
2017/18 |
Swansea |
33 |
Southampton |
36 |
2016/17 |
Hull |
34 |
Watford |
40 |
2015/16 |
Newcastle |
37 |
Sunderland |
39 |
2014/15 |
Hull |
35 |
Aston Villa |
38 |
2013/14 |
Norwich |
33 |
West Brom |
36 |
2012/13 |
Wigan |
36 |
Sunderland |
39 |
As the table above shows, the old cliche of 40 points to stay up is a line out of time; only once in the past decade has the club finishing in 17th even got there, while only two bottom-three sides have managed to hit more than 35 in that time. Neither of those came in the last half a dozen years.
In any case, it highlights why this season is now a five-way fight for survival.
Palace (37 points) are already likely uncatchable, while West Ham (34), Wolves (34) and Bournemouth (33) probably need another win-and-a-draw apiece from six games for certain safety.
That leaves Leeds United (29), Leicester (28), Everton (28), Nottingham Forest (27) and Southampton (24) to fill three Championship spots for next term, and two who earn a reprieve and a chance to rebuild.
As the fixture list and football fates would have it, plenty of those face off against each other in the coming days.
Leeds host Leicester on Tuesday night, with Southampton facing Bournemouth on Thursday. At the weekend, the Cherries then play Leeds on home turf, with a massive Monday night clash seeing Leicester at home to Everton.
Now under the guidance of Dean Smith following Brendan Rodgers’ sacking, Leicester are the only club in the bottom seven to have won their most recent outing, but it hardly counts as ‘form’ – they lost four on the bounce prior to that triumph over Wolves.
The bottom three are the most troubled three in more than just points and positions. Everton haven’t won in five, Southampton in seven, Forest in 11. The Toffees have also just scored one in their last three games, while Forest have conceded nine in four. Unsurprising statistics, given the nature of their plight.
Indeed, while the appointment of Sean Dyche was supposed to give Everton the necessary rigidity and organisation to stay up and rebuild, that hasn’t really been the case. They conceded eight in four before a weekend clean sheet, while remaining the league’s lowest goalscorers this season – just 24 in 32 games, including a paltry ten on the road. That isn’t great news considering their most winnable matches left on paper are all away from home, compared to facing both Newcastle and Man City in their next two home fixtures.
It could be Leicester, then, who make the biggest steps and take the deepest breaths this week.
Leeds have the on-the-ball ability to trouble them of course, but Leeds also have a woeful lack of defensive cohesion, illustrated by their last two home games: 1-5 vs Palace, 1-6 vs Liverpool. If the Foxes get their attacking play right, big points are on the table and suddenly, from sitting 19th as recently as Friday, they could well be looking at a three-match unbeaten streak come a week from now.
Then again, this is the relegation battle.
There’s often too little confidence and too much stress at play to make form and probabilities seem like reasonable assumptions, while predictions can be entirely pointless and the only real certainty is that every single one of the five at the bottom need to, somehow, find a way to get at least two more wins between now and 28 May.
