The Hunter goes to the polls on Saturday with the prospect of shaping the balance of power in NSW.
Both major parties stand accused of largely ignoring the region's pressing infrastructure needs during the campaign, despite the Hunter containing nine of the state's 93 electorates.
The only close contest forecast for the Labor-dominated region is in Upper Hunter, where a boundary redraw has damaged Nationals MP Dave Layzell's hopes of holding off Labor candidate Peree Watson.
Former One Nation candidate turned independent Dale McNamara has preferenced Ms Watson, the daughter of late mining union stalwart Mick Watson, on his CFMEU-endorsed how-to-vote cards.
Allocating preferences is optional for voters in NSW elections, but Mr Layzell and Ms Watson said Mr McNamara's decision to nominate Labor as a second pick could influence the outcome in an electorate hanging on a margin of just 0.5 percentage points.
"I'm totally surprised that someone like Dale, a champion of coal and coal-fired power, would then turn around and preference the Labor-Greens," Mr Layzell said.
"He's free to do that, but it certainly makes it tougher for me."
Ms Watson said no candidate would win based only on primary votes.
"Preferences will certainly come into it," she said.
"That is the path to taking the seat of Upper Hunter."
Mr McNamara, a prominent Singleton businessman, won 12.3 per cent of the primary vote at the 2021 by-election as a One Nation candidate.
He shared a meme on Facebook two weeks ago saying: "Black coal matters. Every time you share this a Labor/Green head will explode."
But he said on Friday that he was disappointed with the Nationals' advocacy in the electorate.
"I've given them every opportunity to meet with people on the land to talk about the things that I think are important ... and there's been a lot of talk and no action," he said.
The Greens are also preferencing Labor in Upper Hunter, but the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party's how-to-vote cards do not number any other preferred candidates.
Mr Layzell said the result was hard to predict due to a boundary redistribution which has transferred 6500 voters from Labor-leaning parts of the Maitland electorate, including Branxton, into Upper Hunter and ejected 5000 rural constituents to the seats of Tamworth, Dubbo and Bathurst.
Published polls of voter intentions forecast a statewide swing of up to 4.5 per cent to Labor, which would translate to victory for Ms Watson if that shift played out in Upper Hunter.
"I do expect it to be tight. There's no doubt the demographics have changed through a redistribution," Mr Layzell said.
"That makes it tight, and of course the government has been around for a while and naturally there will be a swing against the government of some description."
Both Ms Watson and Mr Layzell said the Perrottet government's promise to introduce cashless poker machines had not been a hot-button issue at Upper Hunter pre-poll booths this week.
"It hasn't been raised with me on pre-poll," Ms Watson said.
"People in the Upper Hunter are worried about the services they're provided and they're worried about their future jobs.
"We need to plan. We can no longer allow private companies to determine our energy and job security."
Upper Hunter has never voted Labor nor elected a woman, but Ms Watson said she was "very confident".
Mr McNamara said neither major party was "talking about mining jobs".
"They've all stuck their head in the toilet over that," he said.
"I'm not against what's next. My take on it is people are concerned because there's been poor planning in regards to the energy."
Dominic Perrottet has based his pitch to voters on economic management and a strong stance on gambling reform, while Labor has promised to improve the pay and conditions of teachers and health staff.
The Coalition has committed to a Kids Future Fund, a $250 energy bill rebate, an expanded first home buyer scheme and one year of free pre-school, while Labor has promised to build the state's next fleet of trains in NSW, employ an extra 1200 nurses and midwives over four years on top of the 10,000 promised by the Coalition, build 100 new pre-schools, scrap the wage cap on public servants and convert 10,000 teachers from casual to permanent.
The Liberal parliamentary secretary for the Hunter, Taylor Martin, said the Coalition was alone in having a "long-term economic plan for our state" and had a "strong record of delivery and managing the budget through tough times".
A Labor spokeperson said the party would "end the practice of privatising public assets by legislating against sell-offs" and "safeguard the public ownership of critical public assets like Hunter Water".
Seat-by-seat Hunter election preview
The Coalition's Hunter election promises have focused on Upper Hunter and include $102 million for Scone hospital, $20 million for Scone racecourse, $15 million for a new freight access route to Scone sale yards and $9 million for a water pipeline from Denman to Sandy Hollow.
Labor has promised to establish a manufacturing centre of excellence at a Hunter TAFE campus, $21 million for sand renourishment at Stockton beach, $78 million for road repairs and upgrades, new high schools for Medowie and Huntlee and a Hunter clean energy transition authority.
Labor expects to hold its seven Hunter seats comfortably, as does independent Greg Piper in Lake Macquarie.
Mr Piper said on Friday that he and fellow independents Alex Greenwich and Joe McGirr would work with a Labor minority government as long as leader Chris Minns agreed to a stronger stance on gambling reform.
The Coalition has relied on the crossbench in the lower house after slipping into minority during the latest term of government.
Mr Piper said the independents would start negotiating with whichever party gained the most seats.
"I imagine we will have some pretty good discussions with both sides," he said.
"They know one key thing for pretty much all of us is we want them to step up on gambling reform."
Mr Piper said Mr Minns' plan to trial cashless gaming in "at least" 500 of the state's 90,000 poker machines was "a nonsense" and "disappointing".
He backed Mr Greenwich's assertion that a gambling reform bill likely would pass with opposition and crossbench support regardless of whether Labor backed it.
"It will prevail. Is that what Chris wants? It's not in his interests, either, so let's just get this one off the table and all come to an agreement," he said.
"It could be a deal-breaker, but I doubt he would be so silly."
Mr Piper said people should take their upper house vote "very seriously" given minor parties will hold the balance of power in the Legislative Council, which is split roughly evenly between the political left and right.
The Greens, Shooters, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis Party and Animal Justice Party all hope to hold or expand their representation when half the chamber's 42 members stand for re-election on Saturday.
"I do actually value stability in government. I'm not a wrecker. I see a number of players for the upper house who don't have that same view," Mr Piper said.
"They truly wish to wag the dog, to be a de facto government, coming from only 10 per cent of the numbers. That's not something that's good for NSW."
The main talking point in the seat of Newcastle is whether Greens candidate John Mackenzie can make up ground on Labor MP Tim Crakanthorp.
Upper house Greens MP Abigail Boyd said last month that the party hoped to win Newcastle within four years after its success in three Brisbane seats at the last federal election.
Dr Mackenzie said on Friday that the Greens wanted to improve on their showing in the 2022 federal poll, when Charlotte McCabe won 20.1 per cent of the primary vote.
"If the Greens are helping to form the balance of power, then Newcastle can only benefit from having a Green sitting in that seat," he said.
"As long as we keep building [our vote]. That's a sign we're doing the right thing. We had a very good federal result, and we'd be hoping to build on that."
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