The Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) are gearing up for one of the most anticipated games of the 2022 NFL season, which is a rematch against the Buffalo Bills (4-1).
Just as we have over the past six seasons, the Chiefs Wire staff will offer its weekly predictions for each Chiefs game. Below you’ll find all of our picks for Kansas City’s Week 6 matchup against the Bills on Sunday, Oct. 16 at 3:25 p.m. CT at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
Charles Goldman's prediction:
A lot of people have absolute faith in the Bills heading into this game, but I get the feeling they’re gearing up for a letdown performance. They’re coming off of a scorcher against the Steelers in Week 5 that saw starters resting by the end of the third quarter. They’re also playing against a team that is underdogs in their home stadium for the first time in the last four years. That’s like the perfect NFL recipe for a team getting humbled in the early goings of the game.
Yes, the Chiefs will be without Willie Gay Jr., Bryan Cook, Rashad Fenton, Tershawn Wharton and likely without Trent McDuffie, but it’s not like the Bills are perfectly healthy on defense either. They’re going to be without Tre White and Micah Hyde and they’re also going to have some rookies playing in the secondary.
The Chiefs’ D-Line matches up better against the Bills’ O-Line than anyone is giving credit. With Mike Danna returning, I suspect the pass rush could have one of its best days yet. It’ll be especially interesting when you consider D-Line coach Joe Cullen coordinated the defense that held Buffalo to their lowest point total in 2021.
I feel like Mahomes and the offense will have their quickest start of the season in this game and it’ll take the Bills some time to adjust and counter — perhaps too much time for them to come back and win the game.
Chiefs 35, Bills 28.
Wesley Roesch's prediction:
I hate to pick against the Chiefs, but my gut tells me it’s the right call this week. Not that the Chiefs are incapable of winning this one — I won’t be surprised if they do. But I think Buffalo has a slight edge.
The Chiefs’ defense is missing linebacker Willie Gay Jr. and cornerback Rashad Fenton, and will likely be without CB Trent McDuffie as well. That’ll leave two rookies — fourth- and seventh-round picks — starting at cornerback. Jaylen Watson, the seventh-rounder, has actually been good this season, while Joshua Williams has had just 17 defensive snaps.
I think Williams and Watson are capable of having good games, but I just see Bills quarterback Josh Allen taking advantage of a young, inexperienced defensive squad that’s also missing its top linebacker. Allen is throwing at a great pace this season and is Buffalo’s top runner. I’m not sure the defense is healthy enough to contain him.
On the other side of the ball, I expect the Chiefs to put up a good chunk of points on the Bills. But despite leading the league in points per game, I think the Chiefs’ offense still has room to grow. I don’t know if the offense has quite reached the level it wants to reach yet this season. There’s a reason why Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdowns to Travis Kelce last week and not one of his receivers. He’s still developing a rapport with those guys.
I expect the Chiefs’ offense to shape up by the end of the year, but in the meantime, the Bills may do just enough to outscore the Chiefs and pull away.
Bills 34, Chiefs 31
Nick Roesch's prediction:
I’m all in on this game being a shootout. The only thing that can stop these two offensive juggernauts is themselves. Mahomes is playing some of the best football of his career, spreading the ball all over the field.
I am a tad concerned about the Chiefs’ offensive line, but Mahomes has risen to the challenge thus far. I don’t think the Bills’ defense has been challenged like it will in this game. Jordan Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds are banged up and they are already without Micah Hyde.
I expect Mahomes to sling it all over the yard and light up the scoreboard. The Bills’ offense has reached the point where it doesn’t matter how good the opposing defense is. Buffalo is a big play machine and Josh Allen puts its running attack over the top.
The Chiefs will lean heavily on Chris Jones and Nick Bolton to create disruption. They will also lean on a young, inexperienced cornerback group that will start two rookies. Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams have great upside, but they still have a ways to go to develop. I think the Bills’ offense makes a couple more plays than K.C. and gets the win.
Bills 41, Chiefs 37
Ed Easton Jr.'s prediction:
The Kansas City Chiefs enter Sunday’s divisions round rematch against the Buffalo Bills fresh off a nail-biter comeback victory on Monday night. The headline matchup will be the quarterback duel between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
The Chiefs’ offense will benefit from the home cooking and strike early in this game, with Travis Kelce picking up where he left off on Monday. The running game will, this time, be spearheaded by Isiah Pacheco, a player that wasn’t involved in the team’s previous game. Expect another strong performance from Marques Valdez-Scantling as he strings together back-to-back solid outings.
The defensive line will need to be focused on getting to and containing Josh Allen all game. Special teams will be essential in turning the tide in this contest, and the return of Harrison Butker should bring stability to the kicking game.
Chiefs 35, Bills 28
