Hours before U.S. missiles struck Tehran on Saturday, February 28, six Polymarket accounts placed bets that military action would begin. They were bang on the money right. Together, they raked in $1.2 million, with one account turning $61,000 into nearly $493,000—a whopping 821% return. Most of these accounts were created and funded within 24 hours of the strikes. The whiff stench of insider trading is unmistakable.
This was no isolated incident. Similar patterns emerged in January, when freshly created accounts netted over $400,000 betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, just hours before the operation went public.
