It’s finally here. The week when the first set of College Football Playoff rankings are released is nearly upon us. The first installment of the playoff committee’s efforts to determine the best teams in the country comes on Tuesday and will set the baseline for how teams are viewed going forward.
We know that teams like Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia, Washington, Florida State, Oregon, and Penn State will all likely be in there somewhere near the top, but what’s the order? The Buckeyes have the best résumé of any team out there, but the offense hasn’t looked like a well-oiled machine. The Wolverines have dominated everyone, but define everyone? Their best win is against Rutgers.
Meanwhile, Georgia, Washington, and the Seminoles have looked dominant at times, not so much at others.
As we’ve seen in past years, the committee seems to have a moving target on what’s important with these rankings, especially as humans with unintended biases cycle in and out of the process, but we try our best to figure it all out for you.
Here’s our attempt to figure out the first release of the CFP rankings as we wait for the real thing. We start with the top ten, then share the remaining top 25.
No. 10 - Alabama Crimson Tide
Why the Ranking?
Alabama is interesting because — well, it’s Alabama. Will the committee take the brand recognition into account and put the Tide above a team like Penn State? That shouldn’t happen, so we’re giving the group credit for using their heads here. Still, you can probably bank on Nick Saban’s crew being just inside the top ten because of the record and improvement we’ve seen.
Next up … vs. LSU
No. 9 - Penn State Nittany Lions
Why the Ranking?
The Nittany Lions lone loss is against a top five Ohio State team in Columbus. When the margin is so thin at this point, that’s going to matter, and don’t be surprised if Penn State is even higher because of it. Unfortunately, the unintentional bias and buzz seems to be around the Pac-12 duo that will likely land ahead of PSU.
Next up … at Maryland
No. 8 - Texas Longhorns
Why the Ranking?
Texas has looked fantastic aside from the one blemish against Oklahoma that could have gone either way. Unfortunately, that loss matters at this point. However, there’s a path to the top four if the Longhorns can win from here on out, especially if the Big 12 Championship game is a rematch with the Sooners.
Next up … vs. Kansas State
No. 7 - Oklahoma Sooners
Why the Ranking?
Oklahoma dropped its first contest of the season this past weekend and will most certainly not be among the top five. However, you have to think that the Sooners will be above the Longhorns because of the head-to-head.
Next up … at Oklahoma State
No. 6 - Oregon Ducks
Why the Ranking?
If you are ranking Washington in the top five, Oregon can’t be far behind with that being its only loss. Truth be known, the Ducks have actually looked better than the Huskies, but you can’t have the winner of that matchup below the other.
Next up … vs. Cal
No. 5 - Washington
Why the Ranking?
Washington is unbeaten and has arguably the best win of the season with the victory over Oregon. Aside from that though, there’s no much to boast about other than being undefeated. There are bigger games down the road, so there’s plenty of time to put more notches in the belt.
Next up … at USC
No. 4 - Florida State Seminoles
Why the Ranking?
We’ve seen that Clemson win earlier in the year lose a lot of its luster, but if you take the full body of work, the Seminoles bushel of wins is actually pretty good when compared to everyone else. However, I don’t see the committee ranking the Seminoles over both Georgia and Michigan when you take into account game control and the eye test.
Next up … at Pitt
No. 3 - Michigan Wolverines
Why the Ranking?
Michigan still hasn’t played a ranked team, with its best win coming against Rutgers, and that’s why I can’t see the Wolverines being ranked No. 1 or No. 2. However, of any team in the country, when you look at the eye test and game control, none are better. You never know what the committee is going to value until we see these first set of rankings, but I’m going here for now.
Next up … vs. Purdue
No. 2 - Georgia
Why the Ranking?
We’re really going to see what the CFP committee values with where Georgia is ranked. The SEC’s best team has historically been given the benefit of the doubt, but the Bulldogs’ schedule hasn’t done them any favors if the committee is looking to rank these based on the most-deserving. We shall see though. I have a hard time believing the two-time defending champion will be docked for the schedule.
Next up … vs. Missouri
No. 1 - Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
Why the Ranking?
Simple. The CFP committee has historically rewarded the teams with the best resumes and Ohio State, with the win at Notre Dame and at home vs. Penn State has the best of them all out there. Game control isn’t necessarily there, so that will change, but right now, the Buckeyes should be on top. We think.
Next up … at Rutgers
NEXT … Predicting the rest of the CFP Top 25
Predicting the rest of the College Football Playoff top 25
| Ranking | Team |
| No. 11 | Ole Miss |
| No. 12 | Missouri |
| No. 13 | Louisville |
| No. 14 | Notre Dame |
| No. 15 | Kansas |
| No. 16 | LSU |
| No. 17 | Tennessee |
| No. 18 | Utah |
| No. 19 | Oregon State |
| No. 20 | UCLA |
| No. 21 | Air Force |
| No. 22 | Kansas State |
| No. 23 | USC |
| No. 24 | North Carolina |
| No. 25 | Tulane |
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