The leaves are beginning to change colors, wild-card races are flaming hot and October baseball is just around the corner. Only a week and a half remains in MLB's regular season and much has yet to be determined. Unlike the field of contenders for the World Series, which is seemingly wide open, candidates for the award races in MLB have separated themselves from the pack. At least one player has emerged as the favorite to take home the MVP and Cy Young awards in both leagues.
The Rookie of the Year award races however, seemingly foregone conclusions just a few months ago, have ramped up.
In the AL, New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells emerged as a two-way presence behind the plate—and a dark horse to take home the hardware. His teammate, the even-keeled Luis Gil, pitched steadily in the second half to remain a contender. And the early favorite, Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser, remains a factor despite his bat cooling somewhat in the second half.
Then, there's the NL. Flamethrowing Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes, who seemingly makes history every time he toes the rubber, leads the three-horse race for Rookie of the Year. But power-speed threat outfielders Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres, and Jackson Chourio of the Milwaukee Brewers, are nipping at Skenes's heels.
All this to say, the Rookie of the Year races are going to be difficult to predict. But where would the fun be in not trying to forecast them?
So here's to taking on the enviable task of predicting the top three finishers for the American League Rookie of the Year, and the not-so-enviable task of doing the same for the National League.
Predicting the Top Three Finishers in NL Rookie of the Year Award Race
1. Paul Skenes (SP, Pirates)
Can we just hand out an award to Skenes and Jackson Merrill and call it a day? If posed the question as to who the NL ROY is just a few months ago, Skenes would be the obvious choice. But Merrill's emergence, and to a certain degree, Chourio's, has tightened this race considerably. Yes, voting history favors either Merrill or Chourio over Skenes since they’re position players. Even the current odds favor Merrill over the Pirates ace.
But it's difficult not to give this award to Skenes.
The 6'6" right-hander boasts a triple-digit fastball, a sinker-splitter hybrid called the "splinker" and three different breakers—a sweeper, slider and curveball. Skenes even has a changeup in his arsenal. Keeping track of all the pitches he throws is almost as hard as hitting them. Just ask opposing MLB hitters, who, as of Friday, are batting just .204 against him. Skenes' splinker is also legitimately one of the best and most unhittable pitches in the game.
Paul Skenes, Ridiculous 96mph Splinker. 🥴 pic.twitter.com/eWbZ6wGBRW
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 29, 2024
Among hurlers with at least 100 innings pitched, Skenes's K/BB percentage ranks third in MLB while his 2.07 ERA ranks second. Here's the real kicker. Skenes' adjusted ERA of 203 would rank among the 100 best single-season marks of any pitcher dating as far back as 1884, were he to qualify in terms of innings.
The fact that Skenes—who was called up in May—has only pitched 126 innings may work against him, but it shouldn't. This is not just one of the best pitching seasons we've ever seen by a rookie. It's not just one of the best pitching seasons this year. It's quite literally one of the best seasons by any pitcher that we've ever seen. Give him the award.
2. Jackson Merrill (OF, Padres)
Seriously, can we just hand out an award to Skenes and Merrill and call it a day? If anything, Merrill's standout season proves there should be a separate ROY award for pitchers and hitters. But that's another argument for another day.
The case for Merrill winning ROY is simple. The 21-year-old has been the best second-half hitter on a playoff-contending Padres team that features six-time All-Star Manny Machado, two-time All-Star Fernando Tatis Jr. and two-time batting champ Luis Arraez. But that's not all. Since the All-Star break, Merrill ranks in the top 10 in all of MLB in batting average, OPS, barrel rate and wRC+. Simply put, we are talking about one of the best hitters in baseball over a half-season sample size. And it's not like Merrill's overall slash line of .292/.323/.504 is anything to be ashamed of.
Plus, Merrill, a natural shortstop, impacts the game positively at a premium position in center field, as he ranks 12th among all players at the position in outs above average.
Unreal jump & closing speed from Jackson Merrill on this catch. pic.twitter.com/rh4ALcqWK5
— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) September 1, 2024
Recently, the voters have favored position players. There is a good chance, then, that Merrill wins this award. But there would be no shame in finishing second to one of the best pitching seasons we've ever seen from a rookie.
3. Jackson Chourio (OF, Brewers)
Chourio is the dark horse to take home the NL ROY after he has rebounded from a dismal first half that saw him post a 23.3% strikeout rate and .678 OPS. But, much like Merrill for the Padres, Chourio has been the best second-half hitter on a playoff-bound Brewers team.
The 20-year-old has shaved points off of his first-half strikeout rate and has hit the ball on the ground far less since the All-Star break. Elevating the ball more has made Chourio a deadly hitter. Just ask the Brewers' scoreboard.
449 FT 😱
— Bally Sports Wisconsin (@BallySportWI) August 28, 2024
Jackson Chourio just broke the scoreboard #ThisIsMyCrew | #MLB pic.twitter.com/jHfysz5Q2x
Since the Midsummer Classic, Chourio owns a .944 OPS, ahead of NL MVP candidate Francisco Lindor and just behind NL MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani. He ranks in the top 15 in batting average and wRC+ and his post-All-Star 2.9 WAR ranks just ahead of Merrill. Oh, and Chourio also became the youngest player in MLB history to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases in a single season.
Chourio has bounced between left and right field, where he has been one of the best defenders in the game. Skenes and Merrill get all the headlines but don't overlook Chourio in this race.
Honorable Mentions
Shota Imanaga, (SP, Chicago Cubs)
Imanaga ranks sixth in MLB in ERA and ninth in adjusted ERA.
Masyn Winn (SS, St. Louis Cardinals)
A defensive ace at shortstop with a cannon for an arm who has also hit 14 homers and swiped 11 bags.
Tyler Fitzgerald (IF/OF, San Francisco Giants)
Fitzgerald has appeared in just 87 games for the Giants but has posted a .861 OPS while belting 14 home runs and stealing 17 bases.
Predicting the Top Three Finishers in AL Rookie of the Year Award Race
1. Luis Gil (SP, Yankees)
Since this is a predictions piece, why not predict something bold that has happened just four times since the ROY award was introduced in 1947? A pitcher will win both the AL and NL ROY awards for the first time since 2011. And Gil, who has been the best and most consistent starter on a playoff-bound Yankees team, will take home the hardware in the AL.
Gil was utterly dominant over the course of his first 14 starts, as he pitched to a 2.03 ERA and looked to be making an early case for the AL Cy Young award. He has come back down to Earth a bit since then, and, as of Friday, has only pitched 140 2/3 innings as he has dealt with an injury and workload concerns coming off of rehab from 2022 Tommy John surgery. But Gil has been remarkably steady throughout the year.
Plus, among AL starting pitchers who have pitched at least 100 innings this year, Gil ranks 10th or better in ERA and strikeout rate. His .184 opponent batting average would rank first among AL starters, were he to qualify in innings, while his Adjusted ERA of 130 would place just outside the top 10 pitchers in all of MLB.
Gil walks too many batters and the voter's history in the AL is working against him in this race. It will be close between Gil, his teammate Wells and Cowser. But the best pitcher on the best team in the AL gets the slight edge.
2. Austin Wells (C, Yankees)
Wells started the year off slow but has been a revelation behind the plate and in the middle of the order for the playoff-bound Yankees.
You want offense? Among catchers who have played at least 100 games, Wells ranks fifth in wRC+, seventh in OPS and 12th in home runs. You want defense? Wells ranks in the 96th percentile among all catchers in Statcast's pitch framing metric and is capable at blocking pitches in the dirt, ranking in the 73rd percentile in blocks above average. He is league average in his ability to throw out runners attempting to steal a base. One downside is that he has made 11 errors, the most among catchers.
Most importantly, Wells has provided some much-needed thump in the middle of the Yankees lineup behind AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge and fellow slugger Juan Soto.
His bat has cooled a bit in September, and the primary knock on Wells is that he's essentially a platoon bat for the Yanks—he owns a .801 OPS vs. righthanders and .525 OPS against southpaws this season.
But there's no denying the fact that Wells has a legitimate chance to become the first catcher to win the AL ROY award since Sandy Alomar in 1990.
3. Colton Cowser (OF, Orioles)
Thanks to a scorching-hot March and April, Cowser looked poised to become the second straight Orioles player to win AL ROY, following in the footsteps of teammate Gunnar Henderson, who took home the hardware in 2023.
His bat has cooled since, but that doesn't mean his candidacy for this award should too. Cowser has belted 20 home runs and recorded a 120 OPS+ in 145 games for an Orioles team with championship aspirations. The 24-year-old is also an excellent left fielder, as he ranks second among all players at the position in outs above average, thanks to plays like this one.
Moovin' pic.twitter.com/rHCi3qT9pp
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) June 27, 2024
Cowser's bat and glove have been difficult for Orioles manager Brandon Hyde to take out of the lineup, as the rookie has played in the third-most games on a 85–68 team headed to the postseason.
Honorable Mentions
Mason Miller (RP, Oakland Athletics)
Armed with a triple-digits fastball, Miller has been lights-out. He ranks first in K/BB percentage and is tied for ninth with 27 saves.
Wilyer Abreu (OF, Boston Red Sox)
Abreu is already one of the better defensive right fielders in the game and owns a .800 OPS.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Predicting the Top Three NL, AL Finishers in MLB's Rookie of the Year Races.
