How do you go about predicting the line-up of a head coach going into his first match, with no friendlies to watch, no meaningful clues in his press conference and a raft of tactical set-ups in his previous jobs, none of which use the wingers he has an abundance of?
This could well be the furthest off-the-mark predicted XI there will ever be under Jesse Marsch at Leeds United. From today we will at least have an idea of what shape he’s looking at.
At RB Leipzig, where it never really went well for Marsch, there were 3-4-3s, 4-4-2 diamonds and a few 4-2-3-1s.
Marsch said he was forced into trying multiple formations because he struggled to get a tune out of a group which was not suited to pressing high.
At Red Bull Salzburg, where he was much more successful and much more settled, Marsch repeatedly used a 4-2-2-2 and 4-4-2.
At Leeds, he will find a group ready to fulfil his tasks in a closer fashion to what he saw at Salzburg. Therefore, that narrow 4-4-2 or a 4-2-2-2 may be what he leans towards.
The back five seems to pick itself. Barring any undisclosed injury issues, Robin Koch looks a sound bet to play in the centre with Pascal Struijk while Diego Llorente gets over his injury problem.
Let’s then look at the players, rather than roles, Marsch almost certainly has to play because of their status, quality and experience.
Raphinha, Adam Forshaw, Stuart Dallas and Rodrigo surely have to fill four of the six slots through midfield and attack.
So much rests on how, if at all, Marsch wants to use Jack Harrison and Daniel James. They are natural wingers and the latter’s experiment as a lone striker did not work under Bielsa.
It’s hard, at least while we are in the dark, to see where Harrison fits into a narrow shape. If he or James are to play anywhere, you would assume it’s in a two-man frontline where they can use their pace and work rate to lead the press.
Forshaw and Dallas seem most sensibly played as central midfielders, whether that’s in a conventional or diamond 4-4-2.
Mateusz Klich does have the technical capacity to thread passes into the frontline and play in those half-spaces, which require more guile than just sprinting and dribbling.
Raphinha seems perfect to play as the right-winger cutting in with Rodrigo one of the two strikers. Who then plays in the other two slots?
If Marsch isn’t ready to put Joe Gelhardt into the limelight again, James’s pace and energy may see off any Tyler Roberts challenge in the frontline.
That leaves a fight between Klich and Harrison to play as the wider playmaker drifting in from the left. The Pole nicks it for his passing and creativity, but it’s a tough call with so little information to go on.
Predicted line-up: Meslier; Ayling, Koch, Struijk, Firpo; Forshaw, Dallas; Raphinha, Klich; Rodrigo, James.
