The crushing defeat in the Jan 30 by-election has shocked the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.
The by-election in Constituency 9, which covers Laksi and part of Chatuchak districts, was held to find a replacement for Sira Jenjaka, the PPRP MP who was stripped of his MP status by a Constitutional Court ruling based on his previous imprisonment in a graft case. The party promptly fielded Sira's wife, Saralrasmi, despite concerns she had insufficient appeal among voters.
Surachart Thienthong of Pheu Thai won the poll with 29,416 votes, ahead of Move Forward Party's Karunpol Thiansuwan (20,361) and Atavit Suwannapakdee of the Kla Party (20,047). Ms Saralrasmi tallied a mere 7,906 votes.
For the PPRP, this is a massive loss, particularly in light of its 2019 poll victory.
Several observers noted the by-election took place at an unfavourable time for the government, which is struggling with an array of problems including the economic downturn caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the rising cost of living, damage to the pork industry following an outbreak of African swine flu disease and internal rifts within the ruling PPRP. These and other factors point to trouble on the political horizon.
The by-election -- the ninth of its kind in three years during the Prayut administration -- was the third consecutive loss for the PPRP. As for earlier defeats in Songkhla and Chumphon on Jan 6, those can be linked to the fact that the two southern provinces are not PPRP strongholds.
Before the most recent poll, a loss in a Bangkok constituency, centre of the party's base and an area where a number of military units are located, had been deemed unthinkable. Yet the party's formulation of "Love Prayut, like Prawit, vote for Saralrasmi" proved an unsuccessful framing of the electoral situation.
In an about-face response, some strategists in the PPRP suggested that a lower 52% vote turnout, as compared to 74% in the 2019 polls, may have been a factor. Yet all the figures testify to a simple failure by the PPRP given that votes for two of its arch rivals, Pheu Thai and MFP, changed little. It was Kla and Thai Pakdee, two new parties on the conservative front, that snatched votes from the PPRP.
It's likely those refusing to vote were fed up with the PPRP's performance. Others might have thought they were being taken for fools with the party's choosing a candidate, Ms Saralrasm, who had no legitimate political experience.
Perhaps one conclusion to be drawn from the by-election result is a waning of the PPRP's popularity. At the same time, Gen Prayut is facing a set of political crises like never before. However, a House dissolution would have to regarded as unwise. For now, he and the ruling party can only play a waiting game, all the while trying to improve their performance in the hope of bouncing back.
The by-election loss in Constituency 9 may be only the start of more lessons to be learned by the ruling party. Even bigger challenges await, including the forthcoming Bangkok gubernatorial elections, expected to take place in May after a long delay. National elections next year loom as well -- if the PPRP-led coalition should complete its term.
What the PPRP and the premier must do is assess what the voters are saying. Change is in order and rebranding can no longer be avoided. The party must confront the reality that Gen Prayut may no longer be its political lodestar.
