The NASCAR Cup Series will return from its Father’s Day break on Sunday in Nashville, and with nearly half the season in the books, every weekend will be crucial for playoff positioning.
Superstar Chase Elliott is currently outside of playoff position, while veterans like Kevin Harvick and Bubba Wallace are in need of a victory to seal their spot in the postseason.
With 10 races left to go until the start of the 2023 Cup Series playoffs, FTW NASCAR analysts Nick Schwartz and Michelle Martinelli ranked every title contender, from the longshots to the favorites. Each writer ranked drivers from 1 to 20, and we took the average placement of every driver to determine our final power ranking.
20. Ty Gibbs
Current points standing: 18th
Results so far: 0 wins, 0 top 5s, 4 top 10s
If any driver had the ability to win a Cup championship in their rookie year, Gibbs would have to be in the discussion. However, it’s still beyond unlikely. The learning curve in Cup racing is steep, and he’s surely learning that. Despite a stretch of four consecutive top-10 finishes on extremely different tracks, he hasn’t finished among the top-15 since Dover at the beginning of May. Consistently being among the top-15 — but really, the top-10 — is a necessity for a title contender, and Gibbs just isn’t there yet, even if he qualifies for the playoffs. — Michelle Martinelli
19. Michael McDowell
Current points standing: 19th
Results so far: 0 wins, 0 top 5s, 3 top 10s
McDowell is a great road course racer, and he has three chances remaining in the regular season to score a victory on a road course and advance to the playoffs. Outside of that, the night race at Daytona is likely his only shot to win his way in. — Nick Schwartz
18. Daniel Suarez
Current points standing: 17th
Results so far: 0 wins, 1 top 5s, 5 top 10s
After somewhat of a hot start, Suárez’s season has cooled. Opening the year with seventh-, fourth- and 10th-place finishes, he hasn’t come close to a stretch like that since, despite generally qualifying well. With one top-5 and five top-10s, Suárez’s season stats would look significantly different if he could hold onto (or at least finish near) his starting position, but nine finishes outside the top-20 drivers is holding him back. Perhaps he should borrow a little of that aggression from his teammate to try to hang around closer to the front. — MM
17. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
Current points standing: 14th
Results so far: 1 wins, 2 top 5s, 5 top 10s
An upset win in the Daytona 500 will most likely get Stenhouse into the playoffs, but this isn’t a team realistically competing to win a title. Advancing to the round of 12 would be a huge win for the No. 47 team. — NS
16. Brad Keselowski
Current points standing: 12th
Results so far: 0 wins, 3 top 5s, 6 top 10s
Brad Keselowski last won in the Cup Series in April, 2021, at Talladega. His next win with RFK will be one of the sweetest of his career – and it’s possible we see the former champion celebrating this year. He’s had several excellent runs, most notably a second-place finish at Atlanta. — NS
15. Chris Buescher
Current points standing: 11th
Results so far: 0 wins, 4 top 5s, 7 top 10s
RFK Racing’s turnaround from 2022 has been impressive, but they still don’t have the same week-to-week speed that the likes of Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing cars can boast. Until that becomes the case, Buescher should be focusing on chasing individual wins than trying to put together a title campaign. — NS
14. Bubba Wallace
Current points standing: 15th
Results so far: 0 wins, 4 top 5s, 5 top 10s
Inconsistency is Wallace’s biggest issue here as he faces the challenge of qualifying on points. He’s not a strong road course racer, and three of the final 10 regular season races are on road courses. Wallace should be a major contender at Atlanta, Michigan and Daytona, though, which could be must-win situations for the No. 23 team. — NS
13. Chase Elliott
Current points standing: 27th
Results so far: 0 wins, 3 top 5s, 5 top 10s
Chase Elliott’s dramatic 2023 has been eventful, and the pressure on the sport’s most popular driver will be intense in the coming months. His senseless retaliation against Denny Hamlin at Charlotte and subsequent suspension made it much tougher for Elliott to make the playoffs on points alone, meaning he’ll likely have to win a race to qualify. Elliott will be among the favorites at three road courses – Chicago, Watkins Glen and Indianapolis – but he’s consistently found himself behind teammates Larson and Byron, let alone the other top contenders, at most tracks this season. I’m just not sure Elliott is a safe bet to win in the next 10 races – but if he can pull off a victory, he’ll immediately be one of the top five or six title contenders. — NS
12. Alex Bowman
Current points standing: 16th
Results so far: 0 wins, 3 top 5s, 6 top 10s
Bowman started the year off strong with four consecutive top-10 finishes, but he missed three races after suffering a back injury during a sprint car race in April, an incident that made his path to the playoffs much tougher. Bowman should be safe to qualify on points given his relative speed, but it’s hard to put him near his leading Hendrick teammates. — NS
11. Kevin Harvick
Current points standing: 5th
Results so far: 0 wins, 4 top 5s, 7 top 10s
Harvick doesn’t only get the benefit of the doubt as the retiring elder gentleman of NASCAR; he’s also having a solid season. But is it slowly fading? Early in the year, he had a stretch of seven races where in all but two, he finished either fifth or ninth. And he should have more than seven top-10s so far but finished 11th in three of the last five races. With some of his best tracks on the docket this summer, look for him to lock himself into the playoffs with a win at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Richmond Raceway or Michigan International Speedway. — MM
10. Tyler Reddick
Current points standing: 13th
Results so far: 1 wins, 5 top 5s, 7 top 10s
Reddick has had some awful luck in 2023 in his first season with 23XI Racing, as his six top-5 finishes have been offset by four finishes of 33rd or worse. He should shine at the upcoming road courses, and with a win under his belt already, he’s safely in the playoff field. If Reddick can stay out of trouble on the track, he’s usually a lock for a top-10. — NS
9. Joey Logano
Current points standing: 9th
Results so far: 1 wins, 5 top 5s, 8 top 10s
Logano has been salvaging solid finishes through mid-race strategy calls in recent weeks, but he’s rarely been a contender through outright speed from Lap 1 this season. There’s still time to figure things out, and Team Penske has room to experiment as both Logano and Ryan Blaney have wins to their name. — NS
8. Ryan Blaney
Current points standing: 3rd
Results so far: 1 wins, 4 top 5s, 9 top 10s
Blaney has been overperforming in 2023, perhaps more than any other driver when you look at how his teammates have fared. He’s also been the most consistent Ford in the field, but his manufacturer seems to be holding him back this season. Ford’s body tweaks for the current season have led to lower downforce levels, and only two of 16 races have been won by Fords this season. Can Blaney overcome the deficit to win his first title? If he does, it’d be one of the most impressive championship runs in recent memory. — NS
7. Christopher Bell
Current points standing: 7th
Results so far: 1 wins, 5 top 5s, 9 top 10s
It’s easy to forget Bell’s only in his fourth Cup Series season, as he’s quickly established himself as one of the most talented all-around drivers in the field. He’s hit a bit of a lull in the middle part of the season and hasn’t recorded a top-5 since his win at the Bristol dirt race in April, but I’d be surprised if we don’t see Bell in victory lane at least one more time this season.
6. Denny Hamlin
Current points standing: 8th
Results so far: 1 wins, 4 top 5s, 6 top 10s
Hamlin’s struggled to run drama-free races in 2023. When he’s on and his crew has an error-free day, he’s one of the best in the field, but I’m not sure anyone would have expected Hamlin to have just one more top-10 finish than Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at this point in the year. — NS
5. Ross Chastain
Current points standing: 4th
Results so far: 0 wins, 5 top 5s, 7 top 10s
As Chastain has repeatedly demonstrated throughout this season — and in the playoffs last year — he’s willing to do or try just about anything to advance his position on the track and in the standings. Though still winless, he was only recently unseated from the top of the Cup standings, and while not everyone is a fan of his aggressive racing, it seems to be working for him, for now, with five top-5s and seven top-10s. He’s got the skill and speed to be a title contender and make it to Phoenix again. But if he keeps racking up enemies at this rate, payback against him could come at the least opportune times. — MM
4. Kyle Busch
Current points standing: 6th
Results so far: 3 wins, 5 top 5s, 9 top 10s
Not a driver I expected to rank so highly after switching teams and manufacturers and all, but Busch seems to be doing just fine — especially considering he already has three wins and the last time he finished a season with at least that many was his championship run in 2019. With five top-5s and nine top-10s, he’s got consistency and speed in the No. 8 car, plus the benefit of wins on three very different tracks — though only one is in the playoffs. Even if this team experiences some hiccups as the regular season winds down, one of the most skilled drivers on the track can help push everyone else forward. — MM
3. Martin Truex Jr.
Current points standing: 1st
Results so far: 2 wins, 5 top 5s, 8 top 10s
After a slow start to the year, Truex Jr. has been on fire since mid-April, and has rattled off four top 5s in his last six races. His only issue? Truex hasn’t been great at Phoenix in recent years (average finish of 16.0 in his last seven races), well behind both Byron (the spring Phoenix winner) and Larson. — NS
2. Kyle Larson
Current points standing: 10th
Results so far: 2 wins, 6 top 5s, 7 top 10s
If not for dramatic tangles with other drivers, Larson would have at least two more wins this year and we’d be making comparisons to his epic 2021 season. Even when something goes wrong for the No. 5 car, he’s been able to work his way through the field and give himself chances to win. — NS
1. William Byron
Current points standing: 2nd
Results so far: 3 wins, 7 top 5s, 9 top 10s
Byron and the No. 24 team have had the advantage of time after locking themselves into the playoffs by winning the third race of the year. As they trek through the regular season, they also can look ahead to and prepare for the playoffs, where they’ll likely have a strong shot to make it to the Championship 4 and contend at Phoenix Raceway. Not only does Byron lead the series, either outright or in a tie, with three wins, seven top-5s, nine top-10s and 717 laps led, but his victories so far have all been at playoff tracks: Darlington Raceway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway and, of course, Phoenix. He’s in the perfect spot to be a championship favorite. — MM
