Welcome to the other side of the MLB trade deadline. We finally know the contours of the rosters that will be vying for spots in October. And that means it’s time for our power ranking of World Series contenders. (We’re defining “contenders” here as teams who entered Thursday in possession of a playoff spot—apologies to potential dark horses such as the Angels and Cubs.) To the list!
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1. Atlanta Braves
John Bazemore, File/AP
The Braves’ deadline wasn’t particularly flashy. But it didn’t have to be. They’ve looked every bit the part of the best team in baseball for months now. Atlanta is almost frighteningly well-rounded with both MLB’s most successful pitching staff (119 ERA+) and most powerful offense (.498 SLG). The front office made a few modest, well-targeted deadline moves to shore up their few weak spots: Namely, they added a bit of bullpen depth as well as a defensive specialist for the bench. (They’ll also soon get ace Max Fried back from the injured list.) But they didn’t have to do anything to maintain their position as championship favorites. This Braves team doesn’t look exactly like the one that won the 2021 World Series. It looks even better.
2. Houston Astros
It’s true that the Astros have yet to spend a day in first place this season. But they’ve been very close for the better part of a month now, and with their deadline activity, they now look like a true contender. They got the best player moved this week: Justin Verlander. (Their rotation will also soon be boosted by José Urquidy’s return from the injured list.) Houston’s pitching staff had already been excellent this year, with a 113 team ERA+, the best in the American League. But this infusion of depth and experience should push them over the edge.
3. Texas Rangers
The Rangers were more aggressive at the deadline than anyone. They bolstered their rotation with Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery and their bullpen with Chris Stratton; they added a defensive specialist at catcher in Austin Hedges. Those are major additions to a squad that already boasted the best offense in the American League. Yet they share a division with the Astros, who added Verlander and who, of course, seem to be hitting their stride at just the right time. The Rangers’ lineup is clearly stronger. But whether their rotation—even fortified by Scherzer and Montgomery—can measure up is another question. Regardless, it should be a riveting divisional race to watch down the stretch.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays had a truly dreadful last month. But they’ve already shown signs of pulling out of that slump, and if they can find a middle ground the rest of the way between their scorching hot April and freezing cold July, they’ll be looking very, very good. It also helps that they improved their rotation at the deadline with Aaron Civale, who had been having a career year with the Guardians.
5. Baltimore Orioles
This Orioles team is young, fun and electric … and probably still one pitcher shy of the kind of rotation needed for a serious playoff run.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have kept their hold on first place despite a series of injuries that have shaken up their roster this season. (They also benefited from the Diamondbacks hitting a rough streak when they did.) But this pitching staff was crying out for some additional depth—Los Angeles’s 100 team ERA+, exactly league average, doesn’t exactly inspire hope for a serious playoff run. Trading for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly wasn’t quite the big move they needed here.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
John E. Sokolowski/USA TODAY Sports
Toronto did its best to cover for recent injuries at the deadline: The front office added Jordan Hicks to slot in for closer Jordan Romano and Paul DeJong for shortstop Bo Bichette. That certainly makes the Blue Jays’ outlook better than it would have been otherwise. (Or better than it would have been had these injuries come just a week or so later, after the deadline had passed, when they couldn’t bring in any reinforcements.) But the biggest question for this team is about the players who were already here. Can this offense live up to its potential more consistently than it has been? That feels like the biggest determinant in Toronto’s chances for October.
8. Philadelphia Phillies
There is perhaps no team on this list that has had so maddening a season as the Phillies. They’ve followed up last year’s trip to the World Series with an injury-riddled, up-and-down mess. But the core pieces of that run are still here, and there have been enough flashes of their talent visible throughout the season to make it hard to count them out entirely.
9. San Francisco Giants
The Giants could have sorely used an impact bat. Alas, they didn’t get that this week, and they didn’t get much of anything else, either. With a more active deadline, they might have stood to potentially overtake the Dodgers in the NL West. With the quiet one they had … it doesn’t seem likely.
10. Milwaukee Brewers
Unfortunately, the offense here simply isn’t enough to carry a major playoff run. (Even with Christian Yelich’s resurgence.) Milwaukee’s 89 team OPS+ is the worst of any club on this list. There’s only so much the pitching staff can do.
11. Cincinnati Reds
Few teams on this list can match the Reds when it comes to sheer fun: The electric rookies on this roster have made the group a must-watch. But this rotation is not exactly ready for the demands of a serious run down the stretch. (Their 5.43 starting ERA is the third-worst in MLB.) But there’s still reason to smile in Cincinnati. This talented young core should have plenty of time to develop into a true contender in the years to come.
12. Miami Marlins
The Marlins did a pretty admirable job of trying to patch up their biggest weaknesses at the deadline without giving up too much. They bolstered the bullpen (David Robertson) and added some pop to a lineup that desperately needed some (Jake Burger and Josh Bell). Yet there’s still just not enough power here to mount a serious run: Their .400 slugging percentage sticks them in the bottom third of the league.
13. Minnesota Twins
The Twins have the easiest path to the postseason of anyone. (Such are the virtues of life in the dreadful AL Central.) But they’ve done about as little with that as any club possibly could.
