WASHINGTON _ A new post-convention poll shows Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden continuing to lead President Donald Trump in Florida, but the race is tightening as the campaign heads into its final two months.
Biden leads Trump 48% to 45% in a poll of likely voters released Thursday by Quinnipiac University, a three-point lead in a poll with a 2.8 percentage point margin of error. The poll was conducted from Aug. 28 to Sept. 1 among 1,235 likely voters using landlines and cellphones.
"The president's reelection team faces the reality that the Trump era could end at sun-splashed Mar-a-Lago in November if Joe Biden captures Florida," said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy.
Florida is a swing state where presidential elections are won by razor-thin margins. Trump won Florida by 1.2% in 2016.
Biden has maintained a single-digit lead in polls conducted over the summer, and the last poll to show Trump leading was in May.
Quinnipiac also asked those surveyed how they plan to cast their ballots in Florida. Trump has railed against mail-in voting, and cutbacks at the U.S. Postal Service have caused concern among voters that the large number of mail-in votes might not be quickly processed. Forty-two percent of Florida likely voters said they plan to vote in person on Election Day, while 32% said they plan to vote by mail and 23% said they think they'll vote at an early voting location.
The poll also named the economy as the most important issue for a plurality of Floridians, with 27% rating the economy as their most important voting issue, 19% naming law and order, 15% the coronavirus pandemic and 13% naming racial inequality. Voters were asked which candidate will do a better job of handling key issues, with Trump beating Biden 55% to 42% on the economy while Biden led 49% to 47% on handling a crisis, 50% to 45% on handling coronavirus response, 51% to 43% on health care and 53% to 41% on handling racial inequality.
Both candidates have overall negative favorability ratings, with 41% viewing Biden favorably and 46% viewing him unfavorably. Trump has 44% favorability rating with 49% viewing him unfavorably.
"In Florida, 93% of likely voters who selected a candidate in the presidential match up say their minds are made up, with 5% saying they might change their minds," the polling memo said.
A separate poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania released by Quinnipiac at the same time as the Florida poll showed Biden with a 52% to 44% lead. Trump won both Florida and Pennsylvania in 2016, and both states are crucial to his reelection effort.
Both parties traditionally see their nominees gain a boost in polling following their respective conventions due to increased coverage of the candidate. But post-GOP convention polls conducted by Fox News in Arizona and Wisconsin _ two states Trump won in 2016 that are expected to be close in 2020 _ showed Biden building a bigger lead after the conventions. A Pennsylvania poll released Wednesday by Monmouth University was better news for Trump. It showed Trump and Biden in a virtual tie.
In July, a poll from Quinnipiac showed Biden with a 13% lead over Trump, but that poll was conducted with registered voters instead of likely voters. Registered voters don't always show up to vote, so polling likely voters is considered to be a more accurate snapshot of the electorate.
The September Quinnipiac poll is the second Biden-Trump poll conducted in Florida since the end of the Democratic and Republican Party conventions in August, according to FIveThirtyEight. Biden led Trump by 2% in a Morning Consult survey conducted from Aug. 21 to Aug. 30.
