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Emily Howerton, Postdoctoral Scholar in Biology, Penn State

Pooling multiple models during COVID-19 pandemic provided more reliable projections about an uncertain future

Covid-19 Pandemic Public Health
The sum is greater than the parts when researchers build an ensemble from multiple coordinated but independent models. Matteo Chinazzi, CC BY-ND

How can anyone decide on the best course of action in a world full of unknowns?

There are few better examples of this challenge than the COVID-19 pandemic, when officials fervently compared potential outcomes as they weighed options like whether to implement lockdowns or require masks in schools. The main tools they used to compare these futures were epidemic models.

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