KEY POINTS
- Over $310 million bets are on Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
- Bets on who will win the popular vote are nearing $230 million, with Harris in the lead
- More than $7 million are on the contract for who wins key swing state Pennsylvania
Cryptocurrency bettors and traders on decentralized market prediction platform Polymarket have poured over a billion dollars into the event contract asking who they think will win the presidential election in November, manifesting the significant interest of crypto users in the upcoming elections.
As of early Wednesday, bets on Polymarket's Presidential Election Winner 2024 contract have reached $1,007,534,923. Where do Vice President Kamala Harris and ex-president Donald Trump stand?
Over $300M Dumped on Trump, Harris
Harris and Trump account for most of the bets, with pro-Trump bettors dishing $164.9 million, and people who believe in Kamala bet over $156.2 million.
Notably, some $91 million from crypto bettors went to former First Lady Michelle Obama, who isn't in the running. People who believe former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley could have won in the 2024 election poured more than $72 million. Haley ended her run in March.
Some $54.4 million was poured into U.S. President Joe Biden's campaign. The outgoing president dropped out of the race in July before endorsing Harris.
A major aspect of the contract is the significant bets on Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who had people pouring over $92.3 million in their belief that he will win the race. RFK Jr., a known Bitcoin advocate, has also withdrawn his candidacy and endorsed Trump.
The other bets were placed on California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur and ex-presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, and several other prominent politicians.
Quite interestingly, crypto bettors bet some $8.4 million on rapper Kanye West.
Popular Vote Winner 2024
In Polymarket's contract for who traders and bettors think will win the popular vote, crypto users bet $18.2 million on Harris, while Trump believers bet nearly $16 million. As of early Wednesday, Harris is widely leading Trump at 75% to $24%.
Nearly $15 million was poured on Obama's purported run, while $16.22 million was on the option for a different Republican presidential candidate. The total wager so far for the popular vote winner contract is nearing $230 million.
Chances for Another Debate
It turns out there are still crypto bettors and traders who believe another debate will take place before Trump and Harris finally reach Nov. 5. The contract for a second debate is now a $1.2 million bet.
Harris has agreed to face her Republican foe on a CNN stage next month, as per her campaign. Trump, on the other hand, reportedly said during a North Carolina rally that another debate is "just too late" since voting has since started.
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Winner
Polymarket's contract for the presidential winner in Pennsylvania has reached over $7 million bets, signaling a shift in beliefs regarding the purple state as the U.S. gets closer to election day.
Harris is leading Trump at 52% to 49%, with over $4.1 million bets collectively poured for the two candidates.
The Pennsylvania numbers can be telling, considering how the Keystone State is expected to be the most crucial swing state in this year's elections.
