The trusted veteran pollster who wrongly predicted a Kamala Harris lead over President-elect Trump has announced her immediate retirement from election polling, citing both professional humility and a desire to pursue new opportunities.
In a reflective statement published by the Des Moines Register Sunday morning, Selzer announced her retirement from election polling.
"Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll," Selzer wrote. "Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It's ironic that it's just the opposite."
Her announcement comes on the heels of controversy over her final election poll, which missed the mark. The pollster earned an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight for her long-standing record of accuracy, which she described as a source of pride. "Over 30 years of polling led to an A+ rating... Maybe that history of accuracy made the outlier position too comfortable."
J. Ann Selzer's poll surveyed like Iowa voters at the end of October and found Harris with a 3% lead over Trump. The historical accuracy of Selzer's polls persuaded many, despite some pollsters calling Selzer's most recent poll an outlier. Trump ended up winning Iowa by 13%, well beyond the 3.4 point margin of error cited in Selzer's poll.
"Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I'm humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings."
"My integrity means a lot to me. To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade," Selzer said. "To those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls reminding me of my commitment to truth and accuracy."
Although stepping back from election polling, she plans to continue working with private clients and explore new ventures. "My work will continue for current clients and for clients yet to come," she said, hinting at future opportunities beyond polling.
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