KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt is surging in the Republican Senate primary, according to three recent polls, as support for former Gov. Eric Greitens falls amid relentless attacks over the allegations of physical abuse and sexual assault against him.
The polls, all conducted within the past week, show Schmitt in the lead and Greitens in third, behind Rep. Vicky Hartzler. The surveys do not necessarily mean Schmitt will win the Aug. 2 election, but together they indicate his campaign has gained momentum at Greitens’ expense in the final days of the race.
Greitens had appeared to be the Republican front-runner for much of the race, fueling fears among establishment Republicans that his scandal-plagued history would place GOP control of the seat at risk in November. Meanwhile, Schmitt and Hartzler jockeyed for second place.
But a barrage of TV ads have targeted Greitens this summer. One especially searing ad features excerpts from an affidavit filed by Greitens’ ex-wife, Sheena Chestnut Greitens, in which she alleges physical abuse. Greitens also sat for a closed-door deposition in a child custody case last week, the first time he has answered questions about the allegations against him under oath.
Greitens also faced intense backlash after releasing an ad showing him carrying a gun and hunting “RINOs” — Republicans in name only. Democrats, and some Republicans, said the ad encouraged political violence.
Former President Donald Trump has not yet endorsed in the race, but said earlier this month he wouldn’t support Hartzler, who has the backing of Sen. Josh Hawley. In a statement emailed to reporters Tuesday, Trump continued to hold open the possibility of endorsing, saying that people “in Missouri and Michigan, are waiting for me to Endorse, one way or another.”
A poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group shows Schmitt at 26.5%, Hartzler at 24.4% and Greitens at 20.2%. A poll conducted by Remington Research Group for Missouri Scout has the candidates in the same order, but places Schmitt at 32% and Greitens at 18%. Hartzler is in roughly the same position in both polls. Remington is an off-shoot of Axiom Strategies, the Kansas City-based consulting firm used by Schmitt.
A third poll, from Emerson College and The Hill, gives Schmitt a much more substantial lead — 33%, with Hartzler at 21% and Greitens at 16%.
The Trafalgar poll was conducted July 22-24; the Remington poll July 23-24; and the Emerson poll July 21-23. All three polls still show a significant chunk of voters remain undecided, between 10% and 17%, depending on the poll.
“It is no shock that Attorney General Eric Schmitt is winning,” said Rich Chrismer, Schmitt’s spokesman. “He is a proven America First conservative fighter who wins for Missouri, and voters know he is the only candidate in this race who will win in November and keep this U.S. Senate seat in Republican hands.”
Over the past two years, Schmitt has frequently used the Missouri attorney general’s office to file lawsuits against the Biden administration, as well as against Missouri municipalities and schools that mandated masks. Many of the lawsuits have not prevailed in court, but have nevertheless built his statewide reputation.
Whoever wins the Republican primary will likely face either Lucas Kunce, a former Marine, or Trudy Busch Valentine, a philanthropist and an heiress of the Busch beer family, who are the top contenders for the Democratic nomination. Only Emerson polled the Democratic race, showing Busch Valentine at 39% and Kunce at 35%. Twenty-two percent remain undecided.
Schmitt’s rise in the Republican race comes as the Show Me Values PAC – funded by some of his donors — has allocated $7.6 million to attacking Greitens. The group has aired television ads highlighting Sheena Greitens allegations of domestic abuse and has sent text messages and direct mail to voters in an attempt to prevent the former governor from winning the nomination.
Another group, the Hometown Freedom Action Network, launched a radio ad detailing the allegations of a woman with whom he had an affair, saying “these are the actions of a predator.”
It is unclear who is funding the Hometown Freedom Action Network — they didn’t begin going after Greitens until after the latest filing deadline — but their treasurer is Dustin McIntyre, who served as the treasurer for a pro-Greitens PAC in the 2016 election.
“These are totally fake polls that have no basis in reality. Just as they were in 2016 and 2020, these polls are wrong and hugely underestimate the power of the President Trump’s MAGA base,” Greitens campaign manager Dylan Johnson said in a statement.
During a campaign appearance in Kansas City on Monday, Greitens said the attacks against him show how “desperate” his opponents are. “But I have always put my faith in the people of Missouri. I continue to do that and it’s why I’m so convinced that we’re going to win this in seven days,” Greitens said.
The attacks have freed up Schmitt’s well-funded PAC to focus solely on supporting his campaign and attacking Hartzler, providing him with a boost of advertising in the final stretch of the campaign. Schmitt’s PAC raised $5 million more than Hartzler’s PAC through June.
Hartzler’s PAC went up with ads and text messages attacking Schmitt on July 20, according to an FEC filing on July 26.
For their part, Hartzler’s campaign has been painting the recent polls as a “statistical tie” between her campaign and Schmitt’s.
“The race is statistically tied, as shown in the independent Trafalgar poll released yesterday,” said Dallas Ernst, the spokesman for Hartzler. “We look forward to seeing the results from the only poll that matters on Election Day.”
