Polls have closed in two by-elections which could give an indication of the scale of the challenge facing the main political parties ahead of a national contest expected next year.
The Tories are defending what should be safe seats in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, but allies of Rishi Sunak have admitted the party faces “difficult headwinds” because of the circumstances of the contests.
Former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries quit – eventually – as Mid Bedfordshire’s MP in anger at being denied a peerage in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list.
In Tamworth, Chris Pincher quit after being found to have drunkenly groped two men in an “egregious case of sexual misconduct” at London’s exclusive Carlton Club last year – an incident which helped trigger Mr Johnson’s exit from No 10 because of his handling of the situation.
Although riding high in the national opinion polls, Labour said it would be a “moon shot” to win either seat.
The Tories have held Mid Bedfordshire since 1931 and Ms Dorries held on to it in 2019 by 24,664 votes over second-placed Labour.
Mr Sunak’s party is defending a 19,600 majority in Tamworth.
A Conservative Party spokesman said: “These were always going to be challenging by-elections and the rule of thumb is that governments don’t win them.
“We have seen little to no enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer who voters can see stands for nothing and always puts short term political gain first.
“It is clear that we have to maintain our focus on people’s immediate priorities whilst taking long-term decisions which will lead to the change this country needs.”
The Prime Minister’s press secretary said the by-elections had come about after “difficult local circumstances”.
She said “mid-term by-elections are extremely tough for incumbent governments”.
Labour’s national campaign co-ordinator Pat McFadden said his party was “in the race” in “usually safe Tory seats”.
“But we have known all along that winning these seats would be a long shot, with huge majorities to overturn,” he added.
“The fact that we are even on the pitch is a sign of how far the Labour Party has changed.
“We are making real progress in all corners of our country and showing that with Labour, we can get Britain’s future back.”
In Mid Bedfordshire, a three-way fight has seen the Liberal Democrats taking on Labour and the Tories, potentially making it easier for the Conservative candidate Festus Akinbusoye.
Labour’s Alistair Strathern and the Lib Dems’ Emma Holland-Lindsay have both received high-profile backing from their party leaders in a contest which they have had plenty of time to prepare for – Ms Dorries said she would quit in June but it took until late August for her to formally resign.
Liberal Democrat Cabinet Office spokeswoman Christine Jardine said: “Whatever the outcome, it is clear that the Lib Dem vote has surged in true blue villages across Bedfordshire, as former lifelong Conservative voters choose to send this government a message.
“I am bursting with pride at the campaign Emma Holland-Lindsay has run, which has offered Mid Bedfordshire a positive and inspiring vision for change. Emma has rolled up her sleeves, ran constituency surgeries whilst the absent Conservative MP was nowhere to be found, and already begun the work of helping local people who have felt badly let down. ”
In Tamworth, Labour’s Sarah Edwards will hope to defeat Tory Andrew Cooper.
On Wednesday, Mr Cooper said he was “sorry if I’ve offended somebody” after an apparent suggestion that out-of-work parents who cannot afford to feed their children should “f*** off”.
Mr Sunak was asked during Prime Minister’s Questions about a photo of a flowchart shared by Andrew Cooper on Facebook.
The diagram suggested that those who are out of work but pay for “TV Sky/BT/etc”, or “have a phone contract + £30” should “f*** off” rather than seek help.
In reply to the question, the Prime Minister said only that he was “proud of our record supporting people with the cost of living”, before outlining Government policies aimed at supporting people through the crisis.
