Polls have closed in Makerfield, Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, with the result in the north-west of England constituency byelection poised to decide the future of UK politics.
The population of Makerfield, a constituency sitting just outside Wigan, has found itself at the centre of the British political world in recent weeks after Andy Burnham quit as mayor of Greater Manchester to contest the seat that he hoped would lead him not only to Westminster, but to the front door of 10 Downing Street.
The approximately 70,000 voters have been bombarded by politicians, journalists and campaigners, as a tight race between the Labour candidate and Reform’s Robert Kenyon approached the finishing line, with estimates that up to 3,000 Labour campaigners had arrived in Makerfield in recent days.
The race kicked off on 14 May, after the MP Josh Simons announced he would be standing down in order to allow the former cabinet minister to return to Westminster to challenge Keir Starmer, after Labour’s crushing local election results.
It has been a head-to-head contest between the former culture secretary and Kenyon, a local plumber who has encountered headwinds after lacklustre public-facing performances and revelations about past social – media posts, which included posts relating to Carol Vorderman, which she described as “disgusting”, as well as other sexist and otherwise lewd comments.
Makerfield – created in a 1983 reorganisation of parliamentary boundaries – has traditionally been seen as a safe Labour seat, but over the past decade has moved away from the party. As with dozens of similar post-industrial seats in the north of England, it has leaned towards Reform, led by Nigel Farage.
In the eight Makerfield wards that voted in the local elections, Reform took 50.4% of the vote. In the last general election, Simons won a majority of 5,399, taking 45.2% of the vote share, but Reform, which came second, increased its vote share by 18%.
Ahead of voting, constituency polls gave Burnham between a three- and 12-percentage point lead over Kenyon. Reform has faced a splitting of the rightwing vote after a small but significant growth in support for the hard-right Restore Britain. Rupert Lowe’s party, which launched four months ago and calls for the death penalty and mass deportations, is predicted to win about 7% of the vote.
All eyes will be on Burnham if he manages to take the seat. On Wednesday, Starmer suggested he was willing to offer the mayor of Greater Manchester a “big” job in his government, saying he was “a huge asset to our party and our movement”.
But allies of Burnham – who are reported to be hoping for a “coronation” in which Starmer stands aside – said he was not interested in the offer, saying “the benefit Andy has is not having been associated with the government’s failings”.
Allies said they have had to talk ministers out of resigning as early as this weekend to avoid Starmer’s government descending into chaos amid fallout from the byelection. The prime minister has repeatedly made it clear he has no intention of standing down and has said he would fight any challenge to his leadership.
In Aberdeen South, the contest has been dominated by the future of North Sea oil and gas, with the Conservatives hoping to wrest control of the seat from the Scottish National party. The SNP has been confident it will hold Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.
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