The Conservatives are on course for an even “heavier” general election wipe-out than in 1997, according to polling guru Sir John Curtice after the Tories’ crushing double by-election defeat in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.
And former Tory chancellor George Osborne has warned that Rishi Sunak’s party was now on course for “Armageddon” at the election expected in 2024.
Prof Curtice said Sir Keir Starmer could be on course for an even bigger victory than the one seen under Tony Blair in 1997. He said “these were not ordinary government by-election losses” – pointing out that no government had ever lost as safe a seat as Tamworth.
The elections expert also said the legacy of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss was largely blame for the “extraordinary swings” to Labour.
Pointing to the impact of Mr Johnson’s Partygate scandal and Ms Truss’mini-budget fiasco, he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “In truth there have been two crucial points in this parliament when support has very rapidly from the Conservatives to Labour.”
“One is the first revelations about Partygate in December 2021, and the second was the Liz Truss fiscal event of a year ago,” he added – arguing they were more important that Sir Keir’s popularity.
The polling guru said: “I think one could reasonably argue that the reason why we are where we are is because of those two events – and that’s more important than the fact Sir Keir Starmer has changed his party, although perhaps if Sir Keir Starmer had not changed his party maybe they wouldn’t be as popular to the same degree.”
He added: “A big what if: let us say those Partygate happenings had never happened, or at least we’d never heard of them and a result Boris Johnson was still in No 10 today. Would Labour be doing as well as they are at the moment?”
Labour’s Mid Bedfordshire winner Alistair Strathern with Starmer— (PA)
Prof Curtice said Sir Keir was “nothing like as popular than Tony Blair was in the run-up to 1997” – but said Labour could be heading for an evern bigger majority at the 2024 election than in 1997.
“The Conservative party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily – and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997.”
Prof Curtice explained that the 24 per cent swing in Tamworth was the second-biggest Tory to Labour swing ever seen, while the 20 per cent swing in Mid Bedfordshire was in the all-time top 10.
Mr Osborne, the former Tory chancellor, had warned earlier in the night that losing Mid-Bedfordshire — a Tory seat since 1931 — would mean “Armageddon is coming for the Tory party”. His podcast co-host Ed Balls, the former Labour shadow chancellor, said it was a “political earthquake.”
Tamworth winner Sarah Edwards— (Jacob King/PA Wire)
In Tamworth, Labour’s Sarah Edwards overcome a 19,000 majority and defeated Conservative rival Andrew Cooper by a majority of 1,316. The result in the “red wall” Midlands seat saw a mammoth 23.9 per cent swing from the Tories to Labour.
In Mid-Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern overcame a 24,000 majority by taking the seat by 1,192 votes over his Tory rival Festus Akinbusoye – a swing of 20.5 percentage points to Labour.
Prof Curtice said the two results were “extremely bad news” for the Conservatives and suggested a landslide defeat was on the cards.
“This isn’t destiny – but it is a pointer and it is a pointer that, unless the Conservatives can fairly dramatically and fairly radically turn things around, then they are in truth staring defeat in the face in 12 months’ time.”
He said the Tamworth result – which saw Reform UK in third place – shows the Tories “may get caught in a pincer movement between some of their former Leave voters wandering off to Labour but others going off to Reform UK”.
Rishi Sunak facing general election wipe-out— (PA Wire)
Sir Keir has hailed the by-election victories as an “history in the making”, arguing that the massive swings to his party were “a gamechanger” that put his party on course for power.
He told the BBC: “Each of these results is extraordinary – it’s history in the making, and I think that reflects the fact we are a changed Labour party, that we are putting a positive case for change to the country. And after 13 years of failure and decline under this Conservative government, I think people are looking for change.”
Former Tory cabinet minister Robert Buckland has said the by-elections show “the electorate decided they wanted to punish the Conservatives” – but the leading moderate urged the government to stick to economic issues that “really matter” rather getting lost in culture war rows.
But right-wing backbencher Andrea Jenkyns – a big Boris Johnson supporter – said the Tories need to make “far-reaching major changes now” in the wake of the party’s two crushing by-election losses.
Conservative chairman Greg Hands said he does not “see any enthusiasm for Labour” despite the party’s victories, and insisted that Mr Sunak was doing a “very good job”.
“So I don’t see any enthusiasm for Labour,” he told Times Radio. “But clearly we need to reflect on that and we need to continue to deliver against our priorities and make sure that people see that Rishi Sunak is doing a very good job as prime minister.”
