Ahead of the party’s annual conference (and joint campaign launch), New Zealand First is enjoying the highest polling numbers it has seen since its historic 1996 run.
A current polling aggregate puts the party at just over 11 percent, two points above where it was at this point in the 2017 election, and two points below where it finished in 1996: 13.35 percent, its best result of all time.
Historically – in all but one of the past five elections – New Zealand First has outperformed polling data taken this far out from the election by around two percentage points, setting the stage for a potential record showing at the November 7 election.
Of the 12-month period leading up to a general election, none has started out better for New Zealand First than 2026: the first four months since last November were the best on record, even above its surge in 1996.
That year, with eight months to go until the election, NZ First’s polling data jumped from 8 percent to a peak of 29, before settling back to 15. It hasn’t come anywhere close to those numbers since.
Even if it’s a far cry from 29 percent, this year is a highlight for the party: aside from the 1996 outlier, aggregate data shows it consistently polling higher than ever before, narrowly above its strong showing in 2017, and data suggests even this may be an understatement.
There are 112 days until this year’s election. Over the past 10 years, polls taken around this time have tended to underestimate New Zealand First’s showing.
The only major exception to this pattern was 2017; with three months to go, New Zealand First was polling at about 10 percent. But, 53 days before the election, the race changed when Jacinda Ardern became the leader of the Labour Party. New Zealand First was polling as low as 5 percent in the final days of the campaign, and finished on 7.2 percent.
The party was able to form a coalition with Labour, but in other years, changes to its popularity in the final months of a campaign have tended to see it land in opposition.
In 2002, 2011 and 2014, late rallies earned the party between 3 and 5 percent, but each time it entered Parliament in opposition. Its steadiest years, 2008 and 2020, are also the only years the party didn’t make it into Parliament.
This has not been a major factor since 2014, as the party hasn’t seen any significant change in sentiment between the final month of polling and its election results.
This time, NZ First looks to continue to siphon support from National in a year when over half of surveyed voters say they could be convinced to change their mind, and National Party support is hitting record lows under Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.
Party leader Winston Peters often describes NZ First as either a kingmaker or a handbrake, depending on where it lands in Parliament, but this claim could be up for grabs as well.
Voters hungry for a party advertising itself as middle-ground common sense have another choice this year in Opportunity, which is closing in on the 5 percent threshold – though the two parties’ politics are not so aligned as their promises.
As the 2026 conference and campaign kicks off, party faithful gather in Auckland to submit their remits, send their pleas to Parliament and enjoy oratory from their longtime leader.
Looking to ride the double-digit wave of support, Peters will again play both offence and defence this year as the days tick down to November 7.
