AUSTIN, Texas — Gov. Greg Abbott again holds a single-digit lead over Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the Texas governor’s race, while scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton probably is headed for a GOP runoff, according to a Dallas Morning News-University of Texas at Tyler poll released Sunday.
With a few breaks, though, such as a decision to stay home by GOP voters who say they probably will vote but aren’t sure, Paxton might get close to escaping a runoff, the poll found.
And although the state’s main electric grid held up well during a recent ice storm, boosting Texans’ confidence that their lights wouldn’t go out as they did last year, Abbott actually lost momentum from his double-digit lead over O’Rourke in January, despite his heavy spending on ads boosting himself and slamming O’Rourke.
Simultaneously, Abbott was taking hits from O’Rourke, the leading Democrat, and several Republican challengers running to the incumbent’s right. Also complicating the picture: Impressions of O’Rourke among all Texas voters, while still in net negative territory, improved slightly from last month, to 40% favorable, 46% unfavorable.
The poll, conducted Feb. 8-15, surveyed 1,188 adults who are registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Three of the statewide races — Abbott and O’Rourke’s selection by their respective parties in the gubernatorial contest and incumbent Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s renomination by the Republican Party — are likely to be settled in those three men’s favor on election night, said UT-Tyler political scientist Mark Owens, the poll’s director. In a Texas primary, if you bag 50% of the votes cast, plus one, you avoid a runoff.
Along with Paxton’s pursuit of the GOP’s consent that he be its candidate yet again for the attorney general post, two other statewide primaries seem headed to a runoff, Owens said: the Democratic primaries for lieutenant governor and attorney general. In them, respectively, Mike Collier and Rochelle Garza have established leads, though May runoffs loom, the professor said.
The outcome of a seventh statewide elective office primary that The News and UT-Tyler have been tracking — the Republican contest for state agriculture commissioner — remains unclear, the poll found.
In that race, incumbent Sid Miller is backed by 32% of Republican primary voters, compared with 14% for state Rep. James White of Hillister and 6% for Brenham farmer-rancher Carey Counsil.
“But 47% of the voters really don’t know who they will vote for, even when we ask whom they lean towards,” Owens said.
The marquee race this year, the governor’s race, has narrowed from January, when Abbott led O’Rourke in a hypothetical matchup by 11 percentage points, 47%-36%. Abbott’s lead over O’Rourke this month is 7 points, 45%-38%.
The race has been remarkably stable, Owens said. In the February poll and four previous polls dating back to last July, the incumbent governor’s lead has ranged from 5% to 12%, with changes in each candidate’s support from the previous poll within the surveys’ margins of error, he noted.
“Last month’s poll can be best explained as a test of reputations and this month voters are making more direct comparisons,” Owens said. “When this happens, polls often tighten between two candidates.”
Counting votes, teaching race
On issues, confidence in the electoral process in Texas is increasing, especially among Republican and Democratic voters, the poll found.
70% of all voters said they are somewhat or very confident the March 1 primary election will be conducted fairly and accurately — up from 65% in January. Just 63% of independents are confident, with 37% of them not confident — more than the 30% of Republicans who are skeptical and 23% of Democrats.
While the GOP is pushing to expunge any teaching of critical race theory in classrooms, 59% of all Texas voters say they agree that K-12 teachers should be permitted to discuss how historical examples of discrimination in U.S. laws apply to racial inequalities today. The result in November was the same: 59% agreed with teaching past examples of discrimination.
Twenty-seven percent of voters trust elected state leaders to review controversial books and decide if they should be culled from public school classrooms and libraries. In November, 28% did.
Texans have more confidence in the judgment of local librarians and school district officials to decide on removal of any books, though not overwhelmingly: 45% have a fair amount or a great deal of trust in the local educators; 47% do not.
Many Texas Republican voters, though, have picked up on the controversies in other states, such as Virginia, over what is taught about race and sexuality in public schools.
Retired Flower Mound entrepreneur Maria Krehel, 59, is one. Though an independent, Krehel said she would support reelecting Abbott.
“I can at least count on him to continue down the same road and not take us off in some place that I don’t think Texas needs to go, like critical race [theory],” she said. “I don’t think a teacher should be able to go off what is typically taught without us understanding what she or he is going to teach.”
On the books chosen or removed, Krehel said she wants neither state nor local officials making the calls.
“Should parents have a say in some of that, especially if it’s different than what their families’ values and morals have been over the last several generations?” she asked. “Yeah.”
Michael Jackson, 64, who lives in Houston’s Third Ward, though, said he strongly objects to state GOP leaders’ attempts to scare teachers away from discussing embarrassing topics such as the country’s permitting slavery to flourish and then, after its abolition, Jim Crow laws that required racial segregation.
“That makes no sense,” said Jackson, a former high school history teacher who works for a chemical production company.
U.S.-Mexico border, COVID-19
On Abbott and state GOP leaders’ push to spend billions of dollars to make trespassing arrests of migrants and complete former President Donald Trump’s wall at the Texas-Mexico border, there’s been some erosion of support.
Abbott continues to get higher marks for his handling of immigration at the nation’s southern border (50% approve, 46% disapprove of the Texas governor’s performance) than President Joe Biden (31%-56%). But support for sending the Texas National Guard and state police to patrol the border slipped 3 percentage points from January, to a narrow majority of 51%, while 53% of voters say the wall spending is wasteful or could be better spent. In January, 27% of independents thought the $20 million-a-mile cost was reasonable; this month, only 20% do.
“The cost is a little over the top,” said retired Decatur hospital secretary Penni Green, a longtime independent who said the Democratic Party “is going so far left” that she’s having to exclusively vote Republican these days.
Still, a border wall “is necessary, since there is no control of the border,” said Green, 64. “I live in the country. I have a fence to keep my cows and my animals in. But I also have a gate that I expect everyone to use when they come. I don’t expect somebody to just drive on my property.”
Immigrants should come through the legal points of entry, respecting U.S. laws, she said.
On COVID-19, perhaps because new infections from the omicron variant have begun to decrease, the poll found a 5-percentage-point reduction in the number of voters who wore a mask in the past seven days. In January, 77% said they had; this month, just 72%. Age groups with the biggest decreases in mask wearing were 35 to 44 year olds (71%, down from 79% last month) and those 65 or older (69%, down from 78%).
On vaccines, the share of registered voters who say they’ve gotten the shots is 64%, same as in January.
Also, 57% of Texas parents say their children as young as 5 years old already have been vaccinated against COVID-19, or they probably or definitely will receive the vaccine. That’s slightly up from January’s 55%, which was a significant decrease from November, when 63% of parents planned to vaccinate their kids.
Among Latino parents, while 54% were willing to have children get the vaccine last month, 64% were willing this month, the poll found.
Favorable Republican climate
Going into primaries in a midterm election year, the atmosphere remains favorable to Texas Republicans, the poll found.
Only 39% of state voters approve of Biden’s performance in his first year as president, with 57% disapproving.
If the general election were today, 52% of all voters say they would vote for a Republican candidate for the Texas House, compared with 45% backing a Democratic candidate. For the Democrats, that’s far worse than two years ago, when they enjoyed a narrow, 51%-49% edge on the generic Texas House ballot question. But it’s slightly better than their 10 point deficit of a month ago.
Forty-nine percent of voters say they’re more likely to participate in the GOP primary, 8 percentage points more than are likely to pick up a Democratic ballot.
Governor
Abbott’s job rating has declined from his high point of 61% approval, 23% disapproval in April 2020, when during early months of the pandemic voters rallied to his side. But his 50%-46% net approval this month is better than his low point last September, when he was barely above water (45%-44%). A significant 49% of voters say the state’s on the wrong track, compared with 50% who said it’s heading in the right direction.
Some younger, independent voters such as Dane Sorensen feel as if Abbott’s been in power “forever.” Sorensen, 34, of Garland, likened Abbott to U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., first elected to the Senate in 1984.
“Why are these people still around?” said Sorensen, a Dallas water treatment plant operator. “It’s like, golly, we’ve still got the same problems we had in 1984. … You don’t like to see anyone stay in politics for too long. And Abbott has been there for I don’t even know how long. Get fresh faces in there.”
Still, Sorensen said O’Rourke is “too liberal,” and in all likelihood, he’ll reluctantly vote for Abbott.
As for the Feb. 3 ice storm, Sorensen said that going into it, he had a fair amount of confidence the state’s electrical grid was prepared to avoid blackouts in his community.
“I was worried, but we made it through, it seems like,” he said.
The recent storm left 32% of voters more confident about the grid’s stability and 34% less confident. 33% said the recent weather event didn’t change their level of confidence.
An exception was Black voters, who by 44%-24% said this month’s storm left them less confident the grid is fixed. That underscored a serious erosion of Black approval of the job Abbott is doing as governor: Last July, 24% of Black voters approved of Abbott’s job performance, 53% disapproved and 24% were noncommittal. This month, though, fewer Black voters — 10% — have no opinion. The governor’s underwater with that demographic by 20%-71%.
Jackson, the Houston chemical plant employee, who is Black, said Abbott’s spending on a border wall is wasteful. He’s voting for O’Rourke.
“He has a fresh energy for the political scene here in Texas,” Jackson said of O’Rourke.
From January to this month, Republican support for Abbott over O’Rourke or someone else declined slightly, to 76% from 78%. Meanwhile, Latino voters, who last month split for Abbott 40%-39%, moved O’Rourke’s way this month, backing him 45%-36%.
In Abbott’s GOP primary, he draws support from 60% of Republicans, compared with 7% for former state GOP Chairman Allen West and 6% for Parker County conservative activist Rick Perry. Former Dallas state Sen. Don Huffines, Blaze TV host Chad Prather and North Texas business owner Danny Harrison tie for fourth, with 3% each. Two others had 1% apiece.
Green, the co-owner of a 150-acre cattle farm in Wise County, said she’s voting for Huffines. Green agrees “100% with his views,” as she put it to the UT-Tyler Center for Opinion Research.
In an interview with The News, she cited one Huffines stand, which she noticed in the Dallas real estate developer’s TV ads and social media promotions.
“He said that he would do away with the property tax,” she recounted. “People that own property are punished because they own property. I feel like we’re having to pay taxes constantly.”
On the Democratic side, O’Rourke commands allegiance from 68% of primary voters, with former Austin public-radio journalist Joy Diaz a distant second, at 4%. None of the other six Democrats running exceeded 3%.
Attorney general
In the GOP primary, Paxton leads with 39% to 25% for Land Commissioner George P. Bush, 13% for former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and 7% for Tyler congressman Louie Gohmert. Paxton (who gained 6 percentage points from his January showing), Bush (who also gained 6 points) and Guzman (also plus-6) all improved. Guzman lags, though, and Gohmert did not change.
In recent days, Paxton has told conservative radio show hosts that he might win the nomination without a runoff. For that to happen, though, pollster Owens says, “Every card would have to turn in his direction and the other candidates would have to stop campaigning.”
Pressed on whether they have decided or if there’s a candidate they’ll probably support, just 16% of GOP primary voters said they really didn’t know who they will vote for in the attorney general race. Gains by Guzman and Bush since January make it unlikely Paxton can avoid the May runoff, Owens said. Bush is the likely second-place finisher.
“To clear 50%, Paxton would need to win two of three undecided voters who are certain or probably going to vote,” the pollster explained. “One path to clear 50% is a low-turnout election and only those who are certain to vote cast a ballot. Even then, Paxton would have to receive support from two of every five voters who are still undecided, but are certain to vote.”
Also working against the notion Paxton can squeeze out a majority in the first round of voting is the fact he’s under FBI investigation after eight former top staffers accused him of abusing his office to help a wealthy campaign donor who was already in the FBI’s crosshairs. Some fence-sitters may view Paxton negatively. However, voter awareness of Paxton’s legal difficulties, which include a six-year-old indictment for securities fraud, is not high, previous polls have suggested.
On the Democratic side, between January and the start of early voting, Rochelle Garza, a former ACLU attorney from South Texas, broke away from a crowded field. This month, Garza leads, with 22%; Joe Jaworski, a mediator and former Galveston mayor, has 13%; Mike Fields, a former Republican judge in Harris County, and Lee Merritt, a civil rights lawyer in North Texas, are tied for third, with 9% each. Stephen “T-Bone” Raynor of Richardson draws 6%. 38% say they don’t know for whom they’ll vote.
One late development: Amid early voting, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed Merritt.
Lieutenant governor
Patrick, the former Houston conservative talk radio host, has the support of 54% of GOP voters for renomination to a third term. His closest competition is Daniel Miller, president of the Texas Nationalist Movement, who supports secession from the union, with 4%. 31% say they don’t know for whom they’ll vote.
Among Democrats seeking to become lieutenant governor, Houston businessman and accountant Mike Collier leads with 21%, followed by Carrollton state Rep. Michelle Beckley (18%) and state Democratic Party Vice Chairwoman Carla Brailey (15%).
Though Collier jumped 8 percentage points from his January showing, Beckley and Brailey “have held steady, which makes this a close race headed for a runoff,” Owens said.
Methodology
The Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler Poll is a statewide random sample of 1,118 registered voters conducted between February 8-15. The mixed-mode sample includes 276 registered voters surveyed over the phone by the University of Texas at Tyler with support from ReconMR and 912 registered voters randomly selected from Dynata’s panel of online respondents. The margin of error for a sample of 1,118 registered voters in Texas is +/- 2.8 percentage points, and the more conservative margin of sampling error that includes design effects from this poll is +/- 3.1 percentage points for a 95% confidence interval. The online and phone surveys were conducted in English and Spanish. Using information from the 2020 Current Population Survey and office of the Texas Secretary of State. The sample’s gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, metropolitan density and vote choice were matched to the population of registered voters in Texas.
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