After winning the 2019 general election Boris Johnson thanked voters behind the so-called “red wall” who had voted Conservative for the first time and helped his party storm to an emphatic victory. “You may only have lent us your vote, you may not see yourself as a natural Tory,” Johnson said.
The then prime minister insisted that the Conservative government’s challenge over the coming years would be to earn their trust and repay their faith. By that he meant keep their vote for next time.
Almost four years later, a special Opinium poll for the Observer of more than 3,000 voters – including over 900 people who voted Tory in 2019 – suggests the Conservative party is struggling in that endeavour.
The poll contains evidence that the 2019 Conservative-backing coalition of traditional Tories and Labour deserters is fracturing, in a way that spells real danger for Rishi Sunak’s party. Overall, 34% of 2019 Tory voters said they were currently intending to vote for other parties at the next general election.
Of these 12% were intending to switch to Labour, 13% to the pro-Brexit Reform party (one of Reform’s key messages is that it will “do Brexit properly” where it says the current government has failed), 5% to the Liberal Democrats, and 3% to the Greens. In the south of England only 60% of 2019 Tory voters said they intended to stick with the party. One in five is planning to switch to either Labour (13%) or the Lib Dems (7%) while another 13% intend to vote for Reform and 6% for the Greens.
In the Midlands, behind the “red wall”, 61% of 2019 Tory voters intend to vote Tory again. In this pro-Brexit area, 11% say they would peel off to Labour, 6% to the Lib Dems, and 18% to Reform. An obvious danger to the Conservatives in such areas is that the rightwing vote splits, and lets Labour back in.
In the north of England, 72% of 2019 Tory voters say they would vote for the party again, with 12% saying they would move to Labour, 3% to the Lib Dems and 12% to Reform.
London is the area with the highest proportion of 2019 Tory voters (81%) saying they would stick by Rishi Sunak’s party. Some 14% would go to Labour and 5% to Reform.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium said: “The Conservatives have alienated a lot of the 2019 voter coalition in key battleground areas.
“Whether it is their pro-Brexit voters in the Midlands, or their traditional leafy suburbs in the South, the Conservatives are facing the prospect of considerable seat losses in both the red wall and blue wall unless they can turn things around.”
Also alarmingly for Sunak and the Tories, the issues that 2019 Conservative voters view as the most important are also the same as those they believe the Conservative government has performed worst on.
The three most important issues they cite are health and the NHS, immigration and the economy. When asked to list the three biggest failures of 13 years under the Conservative from a range of policy areas these are the top three: 57% listed the NHS, 53% the handling of immigration and 28% the management of the economy.
When 2019 Tory voters were asked who had been the best and worst Conservative prime ministers of the last 13 years, Boris Johnson does best and Liz Truss worst. Some 42% said Johnson was the best PM, with David Cameron second (19%), followed by Theresa May and Rishi Sunak on 10% each, and Liz Truss on 4%.
In the worst PM stakes, Truss wins by a mile (57%) with the rest closely bunched. Theresa May is second worst (14%), then Boris Johnson (10%) and both David Cameron and Rishi Sunak on 6%.
