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The vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance was a complete switch in tone from the Harris-Trump matchup in early October — and appears to have given Vance an unexpected advantage.
Exclusive polling for The Independent by Prolific shows that Vance has become substantially more likeable than Donald Trump, according to all voters.
Most strikingly, the poll shows that Republicans are twice as likely to consider Vance more professional than Trump.
Vance was plucked out of relative political obscurity when he was chosen as Trump’s right hand man for the 2024 election. He has just two years of political experience, being elected Ohio senator in 2022. By contrast, Trump — who has fielded criticisms of his own inexperience — served four years as president, and is running his third campaign.
Both candidates come from the world of business, not politics. Yet in spite of this, our exclusive polling reveals that Vance is seen as substantially more professional than his boss.
Republican voters themselves are twice as likely to say that Vance is more professional (55 percent) than Trump (27 percent).
For other voters, the difference is over fivefold (among Independents), and nearly twenty times in favor of Vance (Democrats).
When it comes to who is more likeable out of the two, Vance wins overall (by 13 points), but Republicans are more evenly split between the potential VP and former president. Women in particular are most likely to say they can’t choose between either candidate being more likeable (46 percent).
Both Trump and Vance have a checkered history with female voters, both from a policy standpoint or through making disparaging comments about women as a group (from “childless cat ladies” to “dumb women”).
Nonetheless, women are five times more likely to view Vance (54 percent) as the professional over Trump (9 percent).
By contrast, Tim Walz is considered just marginally more likeable (34 percent) than his predecessor Kamala Harris (31 percent).
Though Democrats firmly rally behind Harris, independent voters and Republicans lean more towards Walz. Yet in terms of professionalism, most voters back the current presidential candidate, with 44 percent overall saying Harris is more professional than Walz.
When it comes to the vice presidential debate itself, our polling confirms previous reports that Vance “won” the debate overall, 7 points ahead of Walz.
But that fact hasn’t succeeded in bolstering Vance over Walz.
Despite Walz’s mediocre performance, voters say that he was more honest (36 percent) than Vance (29 percent) during the debate.
Traditionally, the VP is considered the proxy for the number one job, and a possible frontrunner for future presidential elections.
When it comes down to who is more “presidential”, Walz is the favorite (53 percent). But Vance is not far behind, at 47 percent. Clearly, Americans don’t struggle to envision either in the top job.
