ALMOST half of Scots would back the Scottish Government declaring independence without a referendum or Westminster's permission, The National can reveal.
Research has found that, when don’t knows were excluded, 45% of voters said they would either strongly or somewhat support the Scottish Government "unilaterally declaring independence from the UK”, while 55% would oppose the move.
Including don’t knows, the figures fall to 35% in support of a unilateral declaration of independence – still over a third of Scots – while 42% were against, the polling for The National has found.
Support is higher among those who backed the pro-independence parties at the last General Election, pollsters at Find Out Now discovered.
Among SNP voters, 69% said they would strongly support a unilateral declaration of independence and 13% said they would somewhat support such a move, with a total of just 9% opposed.
Some 44% of Green voters said they would strongly back the Scottish Government declaring independence without a referendum, with 10% saying they would “somewhat” support a unilateral independence declaration. Just 20% of Green voters were against the proposal.
Among the Unionist parties, support reached as high as one in four voters.
LibDem voters were the most supportive with 25% backing the idea, while Tory voters were most opposed with 88% strongly against.
Some 19% of Labour voters said they would back a unilateral declaration of independence, while 21% of Reform voters were supportive.
The idea of a unilateral declaration of independence has long held sway with sections of the independence movement, but has often been painted as a fringe idea by the movement’s leadership.
However this new polling will challenge that perception, according to former diplomat and campaigner Craig Murray, who recently unveiled a blueprint for Scotland to become independent without Westminster’s permission.
He told The National that the efficacy of a unilateral declaration of independence – which he believes could force Westminster to agree to a referendum – lay in its credibility.
“With these figures, we could have a credible threat,” said Murray.
“The overwhelming majority of independence supporters support a unilateral declaration of independence and the overwhelming majority of SNP supporters the unilateral declaration of independence," he added.
“The issue is that it’s the SNP leadership which is the roadblock to progress on independence and that the SNP leadership is utterly unrepresentative on this issue of its own members and its own voters.
“It also shows that there’s the real possibility of the Yes movement reviving and devising a strategy which will deliver independence.”
Scotland’s oldest cohort of voters were the most against the policy, with 66% saying they opposed it and just 20% in favour. Most in favour were 16-29-year-olds, of which 46% backed a unilateral declaration of independence, with 30% against.
Murray’s plan would see the Scottish Government declare independence as a bargaining chip to force Westminster to grant a second referendum, his preferred option.
The former ambassador to Uzbekistan also said it would necessitate a “peaceful and friendly civilian blockade” of military bases in Scotland.
Lobbying – either on the part of the state or by the independence movement more broadly – would also be undertaken with the international community to secure recognition for the nascent Scottish state, under Murray’s plan.
Unilateral declarations of independence have been deployed throughout history to varying degrees of success. Countries such as the USA, Belgium, Egypt, and Greece all gained their independence through such declarations.
More recently, the Catalonian parliament passed a declaration of independence in 2017 after a referendum boycotted by Spanish nationalists.
The Spanish state instituted a crackdown on the Catalan independence movement but its parties remained strong in the aftermath.
Find Out Now polled 1020 Scottish voters aged 16+ between August 4-10, 2026. It also found that Scotland would vote to become independent by 52% to 48% if a second referendum were held tomorrow.
