Labour’s controversial “attack ad” accusing Rishi Sunak of failing to put paedophiles in prison has caused more voters to think negatively of Keir Starmer’s party than a Conservative poster that accused the Labour leader of being soft on crime, according to an Opinium poll for the Observer.
The striking result, when people were asked to react to the two posters, comes after 10 days of internal Labour ructions over its sudden switch to hyper-aggressive and personalised online campaigning.
The row led some in the shadow cabinet to distance themselves from the poster, only for Starmer to double down with less than three weeks to go before the 4 May local elections.
The Labour advert about Sunak made 17% of those polled feel less favourable about the Conservatives, but also 12% feel less favourable to Labour. The Conservative ad about Starmer made 9% feel less favourable about Labour and 2% less positive about the Conservatives.
Overall, however, the advert and the row it triggered seem not to have harmed Labour, which still retains a healthy six-point lead over the Tories on the issue of crime, down just one point a fortnight ago.
Labour’s lead is also back up to 14 points, having dipped to a recent low of 11 points last week, with Starmer’s party standing on 42% (up one point on the week) and the Tories on 28% (down two points).
Opinium tends to record lower Labour leads than many other pollsters because of its methodology, which assumes some “don’t know” voters who were Tories will return to the Conservatives.
In 12 out of 14 policy areas, Labour is now more trusted than the Conservatives, with defence and the fight against terrorism being the only two exceptions.
This week, as MPs return to Westminster after the Easter break, and with the NHS facing more strikes by nurses and junior doctors, Labour will attack on the NHS and healthcare – on which it holds a 20-point lead.
Behind the scenes, however, the release of the crime attack ad has caused tensions and dented confidence within Labour, with senior figures and officials at odds over the party’s campaigning style.
Last Wednesday, Starmer’s political director, Luke Sullivan, gave senior advisers a dressing down after stinging unattributable briefings against the shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, appeared in the media.
The briefings, including suggestions that Cooper still had leadership ambitions and was disloyal, followed a report in the Observer last weekend saying that she had nothing to do with the ad and that several shadow cabinet ministers were blindsided by its release.
One Labour insider said there was a lot of “nervousness” about whether the party had lurched too suddenly from a relatively sober approach under Starmer into “dirty politics”.
“It was quite painful. There was no laying of the ground. It is not where we have pitched before,” said one senior adviser.
Some see the change of style, which officials say was approved by a combination of Morgan McSweeney, the party’s campaign director, Shabana Mahmood, the national campaign coordinator, David Evans, the general secretary, and shadow justice secretary Steve Reed, as a panicked reaction to Sunak’s re-establishment of some semblance of competence to government after the chaos under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, during which Labour had to do little but sit and watch its poll lead soar.
“We expected this with Sunak,” said a party source. “He was always going to be different because he is not as crazy as Boris Johnson and not as mad as Liz Truss. But there remain questions about whether we lose more than we gain by coming off the moral high ground.”
A shadow cabinet source added: “We all had loads of emails. Our people didn’t like it. They thought it crossed the line.” Some of those who complained believed the ad had racist undertones.
While much of the criticism has come from supporters of Jeremy Corbyn, including the former shadow chancellor John McDonnell, it is by no means confined to that wing of the party.
Another frontbencher said the ad was a product of Starmer’s lack of clear political vision, combined with frustration at having to limit spending commitments to a bare minimum in the belief that doing so bolsters Labour’s economic credibility. “If we can’t say much on policy, the view is that we have to attack them more. That is the thinking.
“But do people believe it when we tear into Sunak personally, when he has only been there five minutes? It’s not the greatest look.”
Inside the shadow cabinet itself, differences of approach are clear. Some point to Cooper and Reed. “She [Cooper] is very cautious, very risk-averse and always has been, whereas Steve is very gung ho, says let’s lean into everything, which can be a problem,” said a well-informed source.
Aides to Starmer point out that he sowed the seeds of a robust campaign on crime a little over three weeks ago in a keynote speech saying that Labour “won’t pull any punches”, adding “the Tories are soft on it. Soft on antisocial behaviour, soft on the crime that most affects working-class communities.”
Starmer also said then: “If you want to commit vandalism or dump your rubbish on our streets, then you’d better be prepared to clean up your own mess. Because – with Labour in power – that is exactly what you will be doing.”
But the speech failed to get major media coverage. “Now, after one online poster, we have wall-to-wall coverage. So what worked better?” asked once Starmer loyalist.
A frontbencher said Labour was right to take the fight to the Tories on everything from crime to the NHS, the economy and immigration.
“It is a change of gear. We have come back from Easter ready for a scrap. Yes, this is a reset and we are ready to take a few swings. This was all prepared.”
Even if it may have offended plenty of the party’s supporters, the attack ad was widely viewed, as a consequence, no doubt, of the controversy it stirred. Opinium found that 36% of those it polled had seen it, against 9% who had seen (or recalled seeing) the Conservative one.
This week, Starmer and shadow health secretary Wes Streeting will highlight figures showing a postcode lottery for GP appointments, with as many as three in four people unable to see the doctor of their choice, though it is not clear if they will be backed by personalised attack ads.
In some parts of England, they will say, data shows people have only a 50/50 chance of getting a face-to-face appointment, while up to one in nine have to wait a month to see a GP.
Adam Drummond of Opinium said the attack ad row was less significant than the broader message that the Tories were failing to make real headway in terms of being trusted across the range of policies. In that sense, Starmer can be encouraged, despite an uncomfortable Easter.
“Labour leads on all of the most important issues, including the economy,” he said. “For every bit of progress Rishi Sunak makes, it seems to be undone a week or two later.”
• The headline of this article was amended on 16 April 2023. An early version said, “Poll reveals Sunak attack ad damaged Labour’s image among voters”. As the article explains, the advert did make some voters feel less favourable towards Labour, but the poll found little harm to the party’s standing overall.
