DETROIT — With about a month until Election Day, a new poll shows Republican John James leading Democrat Carl Marlinga by nearly 8 percentage points in the race for Congress in Michigan's new 10th District covering parts of Macomb and Oakland counties.
The poll of 400 likely general election voters found that 44% would vote for James, 36% would vote for Marlinga, 5.4% would support a third-party candidate and 14.5% were undecided or refused to answer.
The poll commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV (Channel 4) also found James did better when compared with Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon, who trailed Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer by 13 percentage points in the Republican-leaning 10th District.
The survey, commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV (Channel 4), was conducted Oct. 4-6 and had a margin of error of plus-minus 4.9 percentage points. The poll had a partisan breakdown of 42% of voters who identify as Republicans, 37% who vote Democratic and 21% who consider themselves political independents.
The 10th District race is the only competitive congressional race in Metro Detroit on the Nov. 8 ballot, with the district covering southern Macomb County communities such as Warren, Sterling Heights, St. Clair Shores and Shelby Township, as well as Rochester and Rochester Hills in Oakland County.
James has enjoyed a significant advantage in fundraising and millions of dollars spent by GOP-aligned groups on attacks against Marlinga, while Marlinga has struggled to raise cash and hasn't had similar support from outside Democratic groups. Former President Donald Trump, who has endorsed James, spoke at a rally in the district earlier this month.
The survey found James has strong support with the GOP base, over 86%, while Marlinga was winning over only 58% of voters who "lean" Democratic and 83% of "strong" Democrats. Marlinga was leading among independent voters with 33%, compared with 26% for James, according to the poll.
"John James is doing everything he needs to do to win this race right now. What really catches my attention is especially the strong percentages he's taking from ‘strong’ and ‘lean’ Republican voters," said pollster Richard Czuba of the Glengariff Group.
"Carl Marlinga has an inordinate amount of work to do on the Democratic base. They are likely to come home — likely — but you can't guarantee it. But I was surprised how many people under 50 had never heard of him."
How Marlinga and James compare
The poll found James leading among men, non-college educated voters, White voters and those age 40 and older.
Marlinga is leading among college-educated voters, African Americans and voters under age 30, as well as having a slight edge with women voters, according to the poll.
The survey found Marlinga holds a slight lead in Warren, Michigan's third most populous city, while James was ahead in Sterling Heights, Shelby Township and Macomb Township and the southeast portion of the district that includes Eastpointe, Roseville and St. Clair Shores. Rochester Hills looks to be competitive, Czuba noted.
In terms of name identification, James holds an edge over Marlinga, a retired judge and county prosecutor, according to the poll. Nearly 89% of likely voters had heard of James, a two-time U.S. Senate candidate, including 44% viewing him favorably and 31% unfavorably. By comparison, 69% had heard of Marlinga, including 19% who viewed him favorably and 22% unfavorably.
"Michigan families are being pushed to the brink by the rising price of everything, so it’s no surprise they are looking to elect someone like John James who has created jobs, solved supply chain problems, brought people together to solve problems," James spokeswoman Abby Mitch said in a statement.
"They know they can’t trust Carl Marlinga, and they certainly can’t trust him to have their best interests at heart when he’s repeatedly been on the record showing sympathy to pedophiles and drug dealers."
Nearly 89% of likely voters had heard of Republican John James, with 44% viewing him favorably and 31% unfavorably, according to an Oct. 4-6 Detroit News-WDIV-TV (Channel 4) poll. By comparison, 69% had heard of Marlinga, including 19% who viewed him favorably and 22% unfavorably.
Marlinga said he expects the race will tighten in the coming weeks, blaming the poll results in part on a GOP attack ad released in early September that he's denounced as untrue in its claim that he made a "career" out of defending sexual predators. He has said he defended only two cases where sexual misconduct was charged.
"When people aren't necessarily focusing, the person with the higher name recognition is going to do better, and the person who is subject of negative ads is going to slip" in the polls, Marlinga said. "With the big Democratic lead that the governor has, the vast majority of these votes are going to be coming back."
The silver lining in the poll, Marlinga said, is James is "a long way from 50%," with his numbers not having moved much since polling began in January.
Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel, a Democrat, said he suspects most voters in the 10th District aren't paying attention to the race yet.
"It’s still very early and, based on what we’ve seen in the past in Macomb County, polls are one thing but the election is completely different," said Hackel, who has endorsed Marlinga. "The general sense is that a lot of folks aren’t interested in the race right now, or the politics right now."
He said Marlinga has been supportive of law enforcement, is from Macomb County and a "known commodity."
Democrat Carl Marlinga said he expects his US House race with Republican John James to tighten even though he is behind in an Oct. 4-6 Detroit News-WDIV-TV poll.
James, who ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and 2020, lives in Farmington Hills, outside of the new 10th District. His campaign has said the businessman plans to move his family into the district if he wins the race.
Former U.S. Rep. Candice Miller, a Republican from Harrison Township, said the survey results sounded about right, based on what she's hearing around Macomb County, where she is now the public works commissioner.
"The voters are obviously very familiar with Carl Marlinga, and here they are here embracing the change in a very big way — 8 points at this stage of the game is a pretty good lead," said Miller, who is a co-chair of James' campaign.
"You can feel it sort of going around the county. People do discuss this race, and I've just had a sense all the way through that John is connecting in a very big way."
Poll respondents in the 10th District said the issue most motivating them to vote in November is abortion and women's rights (35%), followed by inflation and cost of living (25%), and jobs and the economy (12%). Three out of four respondents said the nation is on the wrong track — a belief held across every demographic group including Democrats.
How James, Dixon compare in district
In the 10th District, The News-WDIV poll found that Whitmer is leading Dixon, the Republican challenger, by a margin of 54% to 31% — a strong lead in a district viewed as leaning to the GOP. About 4% of poll respondents said they would support a third-party candidate for governor, and another 9% said they were undecided.
The survey shows Whitmer winning the support of 29% of voters who "lean" Republican and 12% of "strong" Republicans over Dixon. The Democratic incumbent is also leading among independent voters, 57% to 10%, according to the poll, with third-party candidates garnering a larger percentage of the vote (14%) than Dixon.
Whitmer had a 17-point lead over Dixon in The News and WDIV's Sept. 26-29 statewide poll of likely voters.
"It's what we saw in the statewide survey, also: Dixon's name ID, her favorable and unfavorable, is just atrocious amongst independents. This is a huge problem for her," Czuba said. "She's got to give these voters a reason to support her because all they've heard for the last two months is the reason to oppose her. There has been no positive message going to these voters."
Czuba was talking about the millions of dollars spent on negative ads by pro-Whitmer groups — many of which have criticized Dixon's opposition to abortion, including in cases involving rape and incest.
Dixon's campaign has not had the money to finance its own commercials to respond to the attacks or boost her name among voters, though she said Friday that TV ads promoting her are coming soon.
"That’s a complete reflection on Dixon as a nominee," said Democrat Joe DiSano, a political consultant and Macomb County native. "This should be a dead heat (in the 10th). Dixon’s numbers should be reflective of James.'"
Dixon is leading among James voters, 66% to 23%, but Whitmer is getting support from 23% of James voters, according to the poll.
Czuba suggested that's in part because abortion has been the central issue in the governor's race, whereas it has not been so in the James-Marlinga congressional race. James has focused his ads on jobs and inflation, while Marlinga hasn't had the resources to draw much attention to James' anti-abortion stance.
"Macomb County has always been the home of ticket splitters," Czuba said. "I don't think that I've seen a more drastic case than what's in front of us right now."
Marlinga contended that James ultimately can't escape the abortion issue, referencing Proposal 3, the ballot proposal that would enshrine the right to an abortion in the Michigan Constitution if approved by voters.
"When push comes to shove, I think the voters voting for Proposal 3 and for Gretchen Whitmer are going to find it hard to vote for somebody who basically cancels out what their vote would mean on those other two things on the ballot," Marlinga said.
The poll found that 56% of likely voters in the 10th District support Proposal 3, while 35% are opposed and 8% remain undecided. About 46% are a definite "yes," while 28% are a definite "no."
About 59% of independent voters in the poll said they support the proposal, as do 45% of "lean" GOP voters and 27% of "strong" Republican voters.
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