The Boeing Company (BA) is one of two major jet producers worldwide, effectively forming a duopoly with Airbus (AIR.FP) - but after another string of incidents involving Boeing's 737 Max fleet, previously grounded for two years over safety concerns due to fatal crashes, investors seem to be losing confidence in this industry titan. While analysts continue to back their bullish ratings on BA stock, here's a closer look at the latest troubles for Boeing, and the politicians who are dumping the blue chip stock.
What's Going On with Boeing Stock?
In early January, Boeing made headlines for all the wrong reasons when the panel blew out of one of its jets mid-flight - an issue that has since been traced back to missing bolts on a door plug. The Department of Justice (DoJ) has now opened a criminal probe into the Alaska Air Group (ALK) flight, in part to determine whether Boeing complied with the settlement of a prior investigation into its 737 Max fleet. Previously, the fleet was grounded for two years after a pair of deadly crashes in 2018 and 2019 that left 346 people dead.
Against this backdrop, BA is one of the worst-performing stocks of 2024 among S&P 500 Index ($SPX) components, down more than 31% since the start of the year.
Following the decline, BA is now valued at 1.25x forward sales - a discount to the industrial sector median of 1.46, as well as its own five-year average of 1.67. However, value-minded investors may want to proceed with caution before scooping up the beleaguered blue-chip stock on the current pullback.
Bipartisan Boeing Stock Sales in Congress
Amid news of the DoJ probe into Boeing, it's worth noting that members of Congress have been dumping shares of Boeing, according to recent disclosures - and the selling has been bipartisan in nature.
On Jan. 9, just days after the Alaska Air flight, Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah) sold BA shares worth up to $15,000, according to Quiver Quantitative data. The Republican sits on the House Budget and Ways & Means Committees.
More recently, on Feb. 28, Rep. Bill Keating (D-Mass.) sold Boeing shares worth up to $15,000. The blue-state representative is a member of the Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees.
Inside Boeing's Financials
Along with the new crop of 737 Max safety concerns, Boeing's lack of profitability is another point of concern. Over the past 16 quarters, Boeing has reported profits only once (Q2 2021). Revenues have declined significantly, too, falling from $101 billion in fiscal year 2018 to $77.8 billion in fiscal 2023.
Results for the recently completed Q4 of fiscal 2023, however, surpassed Wall Street's expectations. Boeing reported a Q4 loss of $0.47 per share, which was much improved from the previous year's loss of $1.75 per share, and topped the consensus estimate for a loss of $0.72 per share. Likewise, revenues climbed by 10% to a stronger-than-forecast $22.2 billion.
Free cash flow of $2.95 billion also exceeded the consensus estimate, and 2023 free cash flow of $4.43 billion landed toward the high end of the company's targeted range. Boeing expects to reach free cash flow of $10 billion by 2025-26 - but declined to offer a financial forecast for 2024, with CEO Dave Calhoun asserting that quality is the focus right now.
What Do Analysts Expect for BA Stock?
Despite the serious issues at Boeing, analysts have yet to abandon the stock - perhaps because, along with Airbus, Boeing accounts for roughly 99% of all orders for large aircraft. Moreover, according to market research firm Statista, the global aerospace services market is expected to reach more than $3.6 trillion by 2041.
While the consensus rating on Boeing has dropped from a “Strong Buy” to a “Moderate Buy” over the past month, Goldman Sachs is one of the more prominent firms to back its bullish view on BA. In late January, analyst Noah Poponak upped his price target on the aerospace giant to $268, which implies expected upside of 48.9% to current levels.
Overall, analysts are cautiously optimistic about Boeing stock. Out of 21 analysts covering the shares, 14 have a “Strong Buy” rating, 1 has a “Moderate Buy” rating, and 6 have a “Hold” rating.” The mean target price is $266.22, which denotes an upside potential of about 48% from current levels.
