DALLAS — The revelation that U.S. Rep. Colin Allred is considering challenging Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz is creating a political domino effect.
Most elected officials are ambitious and will leap at the chance to reach higher office.
Even before Allred’s deliberations were broadly discussed, some politicians were eying the congressional seat he’s held since 2019.
It all may be for nothing because there’s a good chance that Allred won’t run against Cruz next year and instead will remain in his House seat.
“It’s way early. There’s no vacancy, and there may not be one,” said Matt Angle, director of the the Lone Star Project, a Democratic Party research group. “It doesn’t make sense to count chickens before anyone hears a cluck.”
Cluck or not, there are politicians getting ready to run in the 32nd Congressional District.
State Rep. Julie Johnson, D-Farmers Branch, is contemplating a congressional campaign. She has represented Texas House District 115 since 2018. She was part of the group of 12 Democrats who flipped seats from red to blue in 2018. Ten of those Democrats won North Texas seats.
Johnson wouldn’t be alone in trying to replace Allred. An open congressional seat will draw numerous candidates from both parties. And District 32 has always been an attractive landing spot for politicians because of its diversity.
Before Allred established himself in the district, the seat was highly sought after by Democrats who predicted a political shift.
In 2018, seven Democrats mounted primary bids to face Republican incumbent Pete Sessions. The area’s demographic changes, with the minority population growing, gave Democrats a better chance to pick up the seat. Allred emerged from the pack and went on to beat Sessions.
In 2021, the Legislature redrew the boundaries of District 32, giving Democratic Party voters even more influence.
District 32 has a majority-minority makeup, so a candidate has to appeal to Black and Latino voters, as well as Asian and white residents. That will be the challenge for Johnson and any other candidates who emerge.
One more note about an Allred domino effect: Despite her strong credentials, state Rep. Victoria Neave Criado, D-Dallas, says she’d rather keep serving her constituents in the Legislature than run for Congress. Sticking with that stance would remove a strong contender with crossover appeal from the mix.
Since news of Allred’s potential interest in challenging Cruz was reported, the congressman has continued to weigh his options. He’s trying to decide whether it’s possible to beat Cruz in 2024. If he decides he has a chance, he’ll have to figure out the mechanics of a campaign and whether a statewide run makes sense for his young family.
Most Democrats want Allred to run.
“He would be a great candidate,” Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said. “He’s been a great congressman. He’s very well liked, very respected and can raise a lot of money.”
Hinojosa noted that other, including Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, also are considering taking on Cruz.
He said Democrats aren’t afraid to run statewide next year because their 2022 nominee for governor, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, lost his challenge to Gov. Greg Abbott.
He said Gov. Greg Abbott’s defeat of Democrats’ 2022 gubernatorial nominee, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso, doesn’t frighten potential candidates.
“They are not scared because Beto lost,” he said. “They feel that Cruz is vulnerable. Nobody likes him.”
But Sen. John Cornyn told The Dallas Morning News in a statement that Texans would back Cruz, not a Democrat.
“With record inflation, a crisis at our southern border, and Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, Chuck Schumer and the Democrats are dreaming if they think they’re going to beat Ted Cruz in Texas in 2024,” Cornyn said. “I have confidence Texans will join me in choosing Senator Cruz’s proven record of conservative leadership and commitment to preserving individual liberties over a Democrat who kowtows to Chuck Schumer’s liberal values for national fundraising dollars.”
It sounds like many politicos and observers want a Cruz-Allred showdown.
Despite the buzz, Allred is currently running for reelection.
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