Who’s going to the World Cup? You can find out here:
All eyes will turn to Leipzig on Monday when Germany host Slovakia with top spot in Group A on the line.
As stated below, Northern Ireland cannot finish in the top two, but will get a playoff spot by virtue of their Nations League showing.
And Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands side are all but through as Group G winners, too.
That’s your lot, thanks a lot for reading and emailing in.
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Tomas Bobcek’s stoppage-time goal ended Northern Ireland’s hopes of making it out of World Cup qualifying Group A but they came away from a 1-0 loss in Slovakia assured of a playoff place regardless.
Debutant Bobcek had been on the pitch for three minutes in when he fired in from Laszlo Benes’s corner in the first of eight added minutes, and the goal stood despite Northern Ireland appeals for a foul after Daniel Ballard had gone down in the build-up.
Slovakia had second-half strikes from Lukas Haraslin and David Strelec chalked off but this time it stood to spark wild celebrations as the home bench emptied. Northern Ireland, missing four of the players who started last month against Germany, battled for 90 minutes but Slovakia held the edge and will go to Leipzig on Monday with a chance to top the group if they can beat Germany.
Northern Ireland’s misery was completed by a second yellow card for Ballard in the dying moments, but Croatia’s 3-1 win over the Faroe Islands means they will be in the playoffs in March having won their Nations League group.
With Shea Charles, Ali McCann, Brodie Spencer and Ethan Galbraith missing through injury and suspension, Michael O’Neill brought in Brad Lyons, Ruairi McConville, George Saville and the returning Conor Bradley, while Dion Charles started up front.
Slovakia, boosted by the returns of Stanislav Lobotka and David Hancko, immediately tried to get at this weakened Northern Ireland side in a reverse of their 2-0 defeat in Belfast last month, but after a shaky start the visitors grew into the game.
Northern Ireland should have led 17 minutes in when Ballard beat three defenders to get his head to Justin Devenny’s free-kick, only to see his chance go a whisker wide.
Slovakia responded with their best chance of the half as Middlesbrough’s Strelec appeared to beat the offside trap to go one-on-one with Bailey Peacock-Farrell only to hit the post. The ball spun out to David Duris but he had no time to adjust as his header went over.
It was a tense, scrappy match, indicative of what was riding on it for both teams, and Northern Ireland were relying on set-pieces, but only half-chances fell to Charles, who was then replaced by Jamie Reid at the break.
Slovakia thought they had taken the lead eight minutes into the second half when Haraslin’s drilled low free-kick from a tight angle went all the way through, but Milan Skriniar was offside.
That raised the volume levels inside the Kosicka Futbalova Arena and they were even louder 10 minutes later when the hosts had another one ruled out. Again it was a free-kick wide on the left, fired in by Haraslin, but Strelec used a hand to turn it beyond Peacock-Farrell.
O’Neill tried changes of personnel and shape but Slovakia kept on coming and the resistance broke at the death as Peacock-Farrell was unable to deal with the corner and Bobcek had his moment of glory.
Ballard was then shown a harsh yellow for a push on Lobotka to earn his marching orders and, as the night unravelled for Northern Ireland, O’Neill was also booked by referee Istvan Kovacs after the final whistle. (PA Media)
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If the Netherlands lose to Lithuania, let’s say 1-0, and Poland beat Malta 12-0, Poland win the group on goals scored! I think.
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Croatia win Group L. Second-placed Czech Republic are six points behind and can’t catch the table-toppers.
Today's final scores
Finland 0-1 Malta
Croatia 3-1 Faroe Islands
Gibraltar 1-2 Montenegro
Luxembourg 0-2 Germany
Poland 1-1 Netherlands
Slovakia 1-0 Northern Ireland
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Full-time: Slovakia 1-0 Northern Ireland
Slovakia and Germany will play out a winner-takes-all clash in Group A on Monday. They are both on 12pts, with four wins out of five. Germany have a better goal difference, by three, but another win for Slovakia and they’ll top the group. They will fancy their chances.
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Full-time: Poland 1-1 Netherlands
Ronald Koeman and co. are heading to the USA. Mathematically they could still be pipped by Poland, but that isn’t going to happen. It was a 1-1 draw in Rotterdam in the return match, too, when Cash scored a screamer.
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Full-time: Luxembourg 0-2 Germany
They made hard work of it but a Woltemade double gets it done.
Full-time: Croatia 3-1 Faroe Islands
Croatia qualify.
90 min +3: Poland are continuing to press but aren’t really causing any damage. A point for Koeman’s side means they are all but home and hosed as group winners.
90 min: Poland win a corner … We’ll have a minimum of six minutes of stoppage time.
Lewandowski heads at goal but Verbruggen claims.
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Goal! Slovakia 1-0 Northern Ireland (Bobcek 90)
Aaaaaand it appears that Slovakia have won it at the death, via Tomas Bobcek.
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85 min: Into the final five minutes. Can Poland find something? Can the Netherlands? Gravenberch thumps a powerful shot at Grabara, who beats it out.
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Note: That Slovakia goal was disallowed, it turns out, so it’s Slovakia 0-0 Northern Ireland.
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83 min: A sniff of a chance for Poland. But Verbruggen stands tall as Skoras tries a shot from an angle, after the ball cannoned off Van de Ven.
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81 min: Cash and Zalewski off, Grosicki and Wszolek on.
77 min: A goal for Ronald Koeman’s side would book their place at the World Cup with a game to spare. How am I going to get through the next 15 min without a reference to Rotterdam 1993?
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75 min: Van Hecke and Reijnders come on for the Dutch. Geertruida and Kluivert off. No other changes for Poland other than the early enforced departure of Szymanski.
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73 min: Lewandowski seems to have taken an accidental knock in the crown jewels.
Luxembourg 0-2 Germany (Woltemade 69)
A Magpie double.
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Croatia 3-1 Faroe Islands (Vlasic 70)
It’s 3-1!
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As it stands Poland would still trail the Netherlands by three points going into the final round.
Malta v Poland and Netherlands v Lithuania are the closing fixtures but what really matters is that Poland would need to somehow overturn a chunky deficit in goal difference of 13.
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There was widespread approval from Sweden’s well-wishers when, during a training camp in Marbella this week, Graham Potter announced his new charges would play a variation of 4-4-2. A national team once tipped for greatness had been frayed, disconnected and muddled for too long. If their new manager had arrived with an unusually high profile, at least he had wasted no time in throwing on a familiar comfort blanket.
Disallowed goal for Slovakia v Northern Ireland
Strelec has the ball in the net. But it’s no goal.
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“In answer to Tony’s question, I’m on a whisky diet. I’ve lost three days already. What was the Scotland score?”
That was Simon, obviously. Other beverages are available.
Slovakia 0-0 Northern Ireland is a latest score. That would keep the visitors in with a shout of a playoff spot: they are three points behind tonight’s opponents, but Northern Ireland finish at home to Luxembourg on Monday, while Slovakia have to go to Germany. So they could still progress on goal difference with a draw tonight.
56 min: Poland still fancy this. Zalewski warms Verbruggen’s hands with a rasping drive. But straight at him.
Goal! Croatia 2-1 Faroe Islands (Musa 57)
Booooo! Unless you’re a Croatia fan. In which case. Yes!
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“Just woke up and rolled over to the sight of the first posts on the MBM, saw the referee’s name on the line-up for Gibraltar v Montenegro, and immediately thought of Mozart’s Magic Flute,” emails Russell. “Surely I can’t have been the only one?”
Hate to say this, but I think you probably can have been.
“Anyway, really, really hoping one of Gibraltar, the Faroes or Luxembourg (especially the Faroes) pull it off this evening,” continues Russell. “We’ve always craved increased jeopardy in football but, as the game’s stratification grows ever more pronounced, it’s arguable it’s practically a social necessity now.”
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Goal! Luxembourg 0-1 Germany (Woltemade 49)
At last!
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50 min: Lewandowski has a chance, immediately, at the other end but Verbruggen tips it over.
Goal! Poland 1-1 Netherlands (Depay 47)
Gakpo ghosts down the left and hangs a cross up, over the keeper, to the back stick. Malen dives in to head it, and Grabara saves, but Depay pounces on the rebound, and the Warsaw faithful are silent. That is Depay’s eighth goal of the qualifying campaign.
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Julian Nagelsmann, the Germany head coach, surely got the hairdryer out at half-time.
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Second-half kick-off
Let’s get ready to rumble.
“Why are entries in the MBM a mixture of GMT and EST?” asks Tony. “Is it to confuse whisky drinking Simon into believing it is time to look up the Scotland score?”
They’re all displaying GMT here, but I’ll say yes, that’s exactly why.
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Half-time reading:
Half-time scores
Croatia 1-1 Faroe Islands
Gibraltar 1-2 Montenegro
Luxembourg 0-0 Germany
Poland 1-0 Netherlands
Slovakia 0-0 Northern Ireland
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Poland are on the back foot, but they win it back, and Jakub Kaminski bursts upfield on a pacy run. He finds Lewandowski in the centre circle with a progressive pass, and the Barcelona forward proves his class by taking a touch, waiting for Kaminski to power past him into space, and hitting an instant return ball, perfectly weighted, into the path of his teammate. Kaminski’s pace tears the Dutch defence to shreds. He takes it to the edge and tucks a calm, classy finish through the legs of the advancing Verbruggen and into the empty net!
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Goal! Poland 1-0 Netherlands (Kaminski 43)
What a lovely goal.
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Luxembourg 0-0 Germany remains a latest score as we approach half time. A tremendous effort from the Luxembourgeois lads.
Goal! Gibraltar 1 Montenegro 2 (Krstovic 42 pen)
The minnows trail.
40 min: Van Dijk and Lewandowski are having a bit of argy-bargy. We won’t see fistifcuffs though. Will we?
Sounds more like a 40% proof plan, actually.
“I’m whiling away the hours before Scotland kick off in Greece tomorrow by following tonight’s matches and drinking whisky,” writes Simon. “Thus ensuring I sleep right through the game and wake up on Sunday morning not knowing the result, or indeed caring. It’s a foolproof plan, right?”
Yes. But drink responsibly.
37 min: Poland on the front foot. Cash cuts in, and decides to shoot from distance. It’s a naff effort that flies high and wide.
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37 min: “The Warsaw faithful” are getting restless, says the commentator, which is technically accurate. The Dutch are proving themselves as worthy group winners if it continues like this.
“As one of my sisters married a very nice Faroese man (quite) a while ago, and two of his nephews (the Vatnhamar brothers) have been regulars in the national side, and one of my plucky youngsters (U16 coach in Denmark here) hails from the islands, I suppose I am a *bit* biased,” opens Erik on email “... but it’s very nice to see the minnows getting their elbows in early. Gibraltar, Malta, Faroe Islands ... I just hope it will last longer than a VAR review. Giving the slack in the channel, I suppose by the time you get to my mail, order will be restored all over ...”
Well, it is 1-1 in Gibraltar, indeed. And 1-1 in Rijeka too. But I enjoyed your email and that’s the main thing.
Goal! Gibraltar 1-1 Montenegro 1 (Adzic 33)
Pick that one out!
Flint Town are staring down the barrel now, 2-0 behind at home against New Saints. Dancing in the streets of Total Network Solutions tonight.
30 min: If any team is having the best of it in Warsaw, it’s the visitors. Poland are struggling to make inroads, and Zielinski is threatening to do something good but never quite managing it, as per.
Kylian Mbappé has left his France squad and returned to Madrid to receive treatment for an ankle injury, the French Football Federation said. Mbappé, 26, scored two goals in a 4-0 win over Ukraine in Paris on Thursday to help France secure a spot in next year’s World Cup. However, he has been dealing with lingering inflammation in his ankle, leading France manager Didier Deschamps and the Real Madrid medical staff to call him back to the team.
Mbappé now has 400 career goals, including 55 for France - just two shy of Olivier Giroud’s all-time national scoring record. He was scheduled to have scans on Friday, according to ESPN, and will miss France’s game in Azerbaijan on Sunday. (Reuters)
24 min: Donyell Malen of Aston Villa, in the style of Arjen Robben, cuts in from the right and smacks a shot goalwards. It’s over the bar.
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“At the moment Luxembourg, a country the size of Luxembourg, is giving Germany the runaround,” chips in Charles Antaki. That raised a good chuckle.
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Goal! Croatia 1-1 Faroe Islands (Gvardiol 23)
Order restored.
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“I would like to point out it isn’t 0-0 everywhere,” emails David. “The New Saints are 1-0 up away against Flint. My mate has gone to watch – in the rain – but he’s a West Ham supporter so he likes suffering!”
Added to which, the mighty Gibraltar and the even mightier Faroe Islands have also hit the onion bag.
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Goal! Gibraltar 1-0 Montenegro (Jessop 20)
There you have it.
17 min: Van de Ven storms down the Dutch left. Zielinkski fouls him. Memphis Depay bends in a free-kick and Grabara punches clear.
Goal! Croatia 0-1 Faroe Islands (Turi)
Remarkable! Geza Turi, who plays for Grimsby Town, has got the goal!
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It is nil-nil everywhere. And I mean everywhere.
12 min: Szymanski is being forced off on the occasion of his 50th cap. Looks like a groin strain. Bartosz Kapustka on in his place. Early tweaks required for Poland.
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10 min: Szymanski is down with what looks like a groin issue. Cash also seemed to take a little knock.
I guess if Poland win 8-0, and Van Dijk and Lewandowski are both sent off for fighting, this might approach the levels of drama we saw for Ireland v Portugal last night.
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7 min: Kaminski darts down the Poland left and shoots low, but straight at Verbruggen.
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“One element of qualification that doesn’t seem to have got much attention yet is the (in my humble one) lunacy of the Nations League route to a playoff,” emails Tom.
“Sweden have had about as bad a qualifying campaign as you could imagine, yet throughout they’ve been all but guaranteed a playoff spot. I get that Uefa wants to make its new(ish) tournament attractive, but undermining their World Cup qualification groups seems an odd way of going about that.
“The thought also occurs that, if you were a weaker side playing smart, it might be a good idea to tank a Nations League campaign, get into a lower division then win that and sneak a route into a World Cup?”
All sounds extremely sensible Tom. Thanks for your message.
2 min: What a start for Poland! But what a miss too. Matty Cash is in space on the right, and crosses for Nicola Zalewski, who is six yards out with only the keeper to beat. The bouncing ball gets a bit big on him, and he shins a clumsy effort over the bar and wide. What a chance for Poland. And what a miss by Zalewski. Cash looks a bit miffed.
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First half kick-off
Allez!
We’ve had the anthems in Warsaw. Now it’s time for some football. I’ll be keeping an eye on goals elsewhere too.
I make no apology for also posting Zielinski’s recent work of art:
Here’s that Micky van de Ven belter from the other week:
I can’t see the name Micky van de Ven without thinking of Peep Show and “Men with Ven”. How about you?
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Poland’s recent record in major tournaments is woeful. The players’ relationship with the fans can be a complicated one. And much like England, they have an ageing and overrated striker leading the line.
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Malta’s earlier win in Finland meant that Poland’s playoff place is secure.
Surely, though, Poland are too far behind on goal difference to win the group, even if they win tonight?
Stranger things have happened I suppose. Let’s pretend this is a winner-takes-all clash just for a bit of fun.
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Looking forward to seeing Zielinski for Poland. As readers of today’s earlier blog will know, he scored a belting side-footed volley for Inter the other week.
I also saw him score a cracker for Napoli with my own eyes a few years back.
Which countries have qualified, and how did they do it?
This article by Andy Martin does exactly what it says on the tin:
Croatia v Faroe Islands teams
Croatia: Livakovic, Stanisic, Vuskovic, Gvardiol, Marco Pasalic, Modric, Mario Pasalic, Perisic, Petar Sucic, Kramaric, Musa. Substitutes: Pongracic, Caleta-Car, Sutalo, Moro, Orsic, Vlasic, Jakic, Fruk, Ivanovic, Matanovic, Ivusic, Pandur.
Faroe Islands: Lamhauge, Faero, Gunnar Vatnhamar, Andrias Edmundsson, Rene Shaki Joensen, Turi, Andreasen, Davidsen, Frederiksberg, Hanus Sorensen, Meinhard Olsen. Substitutes: Dam, Svensson, Bjartalid, Oregaard, Klettskard, Mork, Martin Agnarsson, Justinussen, Joan Edmundsson, Knudsen, Benjaminsen, Reynatrod.
Referee: Aliyar Aghayev (Azerbaijan)
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Slovakia v Northern Ireland teams
Slovakia: Dubravka, Gyomber, Skriniar, Obert, Hancko, Bero, Lobotka, Rigo, Duris, Strelec, Haraslin. Substitutes: Rodak, Takac, Pekarik, Vavro, Mesik, Leo Sauer, Bobcek, Bozenik, Benes, Tupta, Hrosovsky, Schranz.
Northern Ireland: Peacock-Farrell, McConville, Ballard, McNair, Hume, Bradley, Saville, Devenny, Lyons, Price, Charles. Substitutes: Hazard, Southwood, Lewis, Devlin, Marshall, Donley, Smyth, Reid, Kelly, McDonnell, Magennis, Brown.
Referee: Istvan Kovacs (Romania)
Thomas Tuchel wants his England substitutes to channel any anger they feel at not starting into making the difference when they can because the team that win the World Cup will be defined by productivity off the bench.
The head coach will prepare a heat-proof gameplan for the finals next summer when temperatures at many of the venues in the United States, Mexico and Canada are expected to be stifling and a major part will involve how best to use his substitutes.
Poland v Netherlands teams
Poland (4-4-1-1): Grabara; Kedziora, Ziolkowski, Kiwior, Cash; Szymanski, Zielinski, Skoras, Zalewski; Kaminski; Lewandowski. Substitutes: Kochalski, Szczesniak, Rozga, Swiderski, Kapustka, Grosicki, Wszolek, Buksa, Kozlowski, Bereszynski, Dragowski.
Netherlands (4-3-3): Verbruggen; Geertruida, Timber, Van Dijk, Van de Ven; Gravenberch, De Jong, Malen; Kluivert, Gakpo, Depay. Substitutes: Flekken, Valente, Quinten Timber, Lang, Reijnders, Schouten, Roefs, Van Hecke, Emegha, Simons, Ake, De Ligt.
Referee: Maurizio Mariani (Italy)
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Teemu Pukki came off the bench for Finland on 78mins – plenty of the Malta players would have seen him play many times on the telly. But Malta held on for their win.
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“The Maltese are celebrating, as they should, while the Finns look shell-shocked,” writes Kári Tulinius, watching events unfold in Helsinki.
“I’d say the post-match commentary on Finnish TV was funereal, but it was more like a group of people discussing whether they should stage an intervention. At one point, there was discussion whether this was rock bottom or not.”
Things can always get worse, that’s my motto. Thanks for the update as always, Kári.
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Malta are ranked 166th in the world, Finland are 72nd. That’s a bona fide giant-killing.
Finland have just lost 1-0 at home to Malta, which is a turn-up for the books in Group G. Jake Grech’s goal on 81min won it for the visitors. That’s Malta’s first win in seven games in this campaign, to go with two draws. Dancing in the streets of Valletta tonight?
Luxembourg v Germany teams
Luxembourg: Moris, Jans, Korac, Carlson, Bohnert, Olivier Thill, Martins Pereira, Olesen, Barreiro, Sinani, Dardari. Substitutes: Djabi Embalo, Curci, Avdusinovic, Muratovic, Pereira Cardoso, Veiga, Selimovic, Dzogovic, Sebastien Thill, Martins, Fox, Moreira.
Germany: Baumann, Baku, Anton, Tah, Raum, Pavlovic, Goretzka, Sane, Wirtz, Gnabry, Woltemade. Substitutes: Thiaw, Kimmich, Leweling, Ouedraogo, Burkardt, Nubel, Nmecha, El Mala, Schlotterbeck, Schade, Brown, Dahmen.
Referee: John Brooks (England)
Gibraltar v Montenegro teams
Gibraltar: Hankins, Jolley, Ronan, Lopes, Jessop, Torrilla, Annesley, Mauro, Pozo, Borge, James Scanlon. Substitutes: Banda, Del Rio, Morgan, Richards, Lopez, Bent, Perera, Olivero, McCafferty, Vinet, Mouelhi, Bartolo.
Montenegro: Nikic, Marusic, Tuci, Sipcic, Radunovic, Jankovic, Adzic, Bulatovic, Milan Vukotic, Osmajic, Krstovic. Substitutes: Popovic, Petkovic, Milic, Simun, Rubezic, Vesovic, Brnovic, Perovic, Djukanovic, Kostic, Loncar, Camaj.
Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou (Greece)
Can the Netherlands do it on a cold night in Warsaw? We’ll be focusing mostly on the match at the top of Group G. If Poland can win, they’d draw level on points with their opponents at the top of the group, although the Dutch goal difference is vastly superior: before kick-off it’s +19 to Poland’s +6. On Monday Poland are away in Malta while the Netherlands host Lithuania. Barring a shock the Netherlands will win the group regardless.
Preamble
Netherlands v Poland, Luxembourg v Germany, Slovakia v Northern Ireland and Croatia v Faroe Islands are just some of the top football matches occurring this evening on the road to the 2026 Fifa World Cup. Gibraltar v Montenegro is also a football match, whether it counts as top, I will leave others to decide.
Germany need to tread carefully in Group A after losing their opener to Slovakia, while the Dutch and the Poles are duking it out for top spot in Group G. Northern Ireland are also in with a shot in Group A, but an away assignment in Slovakia won’t be easy.
For all your permutations, consult Ed Aarons’ definitive group-by-group breakdown below. I’ll also bring you some permutations musings shortly, plus team news and other stuff. You can always send me an email with your thoughts, too. Let’s get it on.
Kick-offs: 7.45pm UK time
