In this edition we focus on Poland, where opposition parties have won enough seats in the parliamentary election to oust the ruling conservative Law and Justice party after eight years in power. To analyse this major shift and what it means for Poland's place in the EU, we speak to Danuta Hübner, a member of the main opposition Civic Platform party. She's a former Europe minister for Poland and a former European commissioner who's now an MEP in the European Parliament.
We ask Hübner why Poland's governing PiS party has not thrown in the towel, despite having no path towards forming the next government. "I think they are in a deep shock and are trying to fix the internal situation in their party, and digesting what happened," she says. "But the decision of the Poles is very clear. The opposition got the majority and it should form the government. And I trust that the president of Poland, who has so far been practically always with the ruling party, that he will understand that he cannot go against the sovereign will of a majority of Poles who want to go back to living in normality, and who want the new government as soon as possible."
So if an opposition coalition does take power, what would that mean for Poland and for the EU? Hübner responds: "You remember when President Joe Biden said 'America is back'? So Poland is back in the European Union, and in the world. And the real Poland, democratic Poland, is also back. The idea of Polexit is gone. The links with Madame Le Pen and far right parties – that is over. We will rebuild trust, and be active at the (European table)."
Asked about priorities, Hübner says: "We don't have the luxury of sequencing things – doing the rule of law first, then doing a budget. Then looking at Europe and Ukraine and then the world. I think we have to do everything at the same time.”
Does she see a split in the Visegrad 4 group, potentially with Poland and the Czech Republic on one side, and Slovakia and Hungary on the other side? "Yes, you are right in seeing this new polarisation in the future," she replies. "But actually, Visegrad wasn't working very well recently anyway. There wasn't the same line on everything. And Mr. Fico (who recently won the Slovak election) has some differences with Hungary too. So the overall interests are not the same. But certainly, Poland is clear: if other colleagues from the Visegrad group go down the path of Mr. Orban, we are not going to do that."
On relations with western European partners, Hübner is upbeat about the prospects for reviving the "Weimar Triangle" – a former forum consisting of France, Germany and Poland. "We have to rebuild relations with France and with Germany in particular. Of course we still talk to the Germans and the French, so we still have something of the Weimar Triangle tradition. I don't think it will cost much time or effort to get this Triangle back."
Asked about Poland's current strained relationship with Ukraine, Hübner asserts: "The support for Ukrainian refugees, for Ukrainian women and kids, that was civil society organising that, rather than the government. And then the way the whole grain issue was handled was unnecessarily damaging to our relations. But let's leave that to history. Now, with Poland's reputation in Europe back, and with trust in Poland back, we can be a good supporter for Ukraine in their process of joining the European Union. And Poland has no option but to be very close to Ukraine."
Produced by Sophie Samaille, Perrine Desplats and Isabelle Romero
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