Nottingham Forest have a big few weeks ahead in their battle to retain Premier League status.
After collapsing in the capital, with a dismal 4-0 thumping at West Ham United, Steve Cooper’s side will be eager to bounce back against Everton on Sunday. Given their struggles on the road, picking up results at the City Ground has only taken on added importance for the Reds.
It remains incredibly tight at the bottom end of the table. The gap between Forest and their next opponents, who are currently 18th, has been closed to four points - although the Toffees can change that if they pull off a shock result away to Arsenal on Wednesday night.
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The Reds are 13th in the table, on 25 points with 14 games remaining. But how many more points do they need to notch up to stay up?
The magic mark for survival has long been classed as 40 points. That hasn’t always been enough, but more often than not, teams with that tally have finished above the dotted line - and the total required to avoid going down has generally been lower than that.
Since the 1995/96 campaign, when the league was cut to 20 teams, the 18th-placed team has averaged 35.2 points. Banking 36 points would have been enough to survive on at least 15 occasions - with five instances where 36 and a better goal difference than the nearest rival would have done the trick. In 20 of the past 27 seasons, 37 points would have ensured survival.
West Bromwich Albion escaped the drop in 2005 with 34 points, making them the team with the lowest total to remain in the top-flight. By contrast, West Ham United went down with 42 points in 2003 - the highest for a relegated side. Sunderland (1997) and Bolton Wanderers (1998) are the only other clubs to have finished in the bottom three with at least 40 points.
What does that all mean for Forest? They have 42 more points available; seven home games and seven away. Maintaining their City Ground form looks like being vital.
It threatens to be a very close-run race, however - and incredibly difficult to predict. The Reds certainly have no need to panic after last weekend’s defeat.
Forest’s remaining league games
Everton (H) - Sunday, March 5
Tottenham Hotspur (A) - Saturday, March 11
Newcastle United (H) - Friday, March 17
Wolverhampton Wanderers (H) - Saturday, April 1
Leeds United (A) - Tuesday, April 4
Aston Villa (A) - Saturday, April 8
Manchester United (H) - Saturday, April 15
Liverpool (A) - Tuesday, April 22
Brighton and Hove Albion (H) - Wednesday, April 26
Brentford (A) - Saturday, April 29
Southampton (H) - Saturday, May 6
Chelsea (A) - Saturday, May 13
Arsenal (H) - Saturday, May 20
Crystal Palace (A) - Sunday, May 28
Points tally for beating the drop in the past 10 seasons
2021/22: 17th - Leeds United, 38 points; 18th - Burnley, 35 points
2020/21: 17th - Burnley, 39 points; 18th - Fulham, 28 points
2019/20: 17th - Aston Villa, 35 points; 18th - Bournemouth, 34 points
2018/19: 17th - Brighton and Hove Albion, 36 points; 18th - Cardiff City, 34 points
2017/18: 17th - Southampton, 36 points; 18th - Swansea City, 33 points
2016/17: 17th - Watford, 40 points; 18th - Hull City, 34 points
2015/16: 17th - Sunderland, 39 points; 18th - Newcastle United, 37 points
2014/15: 17th - Aston Villa, 38 points; 18th - Hull City, 35 points
2013/14: 17th - West Bromwich Albion, 36 points; 18th - Norwich City, 33 points
2012/13: 17th - Sunderland, 39 points; 18th - Wigan Athletic, 36 points
Where will Forest finish in the table? Have your say in the comments below
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