Early evening summary
Labour has called for an inquiry into whether Nadhim Zahawi broke the ministerial code or misled the public over his tax affairs during his time as chancellor. But No 10 has defended Zahawi, the Conservative chair. (See 3.13pm.)
MPs have just started voting on a Labour amendment to the retained EU law (revocation and reform) bill that would change the date by which all remaining EU rules lapse, if a decision has not been made to reform or keep them, from the end of 2023 to 2026. The government is expected to win the vote comfortably.
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Voters think Labour would do better job at delivering on Sunak's promises than Tories - even on removing illegal arrivals
The polling company Ipsos has released some interesting polling about Rishi Sunak’s five pledges. For each of the five pledges, Ipsos divided them into an “action” part (eg, halving inflation) and an “outcome” part (eg, easing the cost of living), and for all 10 it asked people if they thought a Conservative government led by Rishi Sunak, and a Labour government led by Keir Starmer, would do a good job or a bad job at delivering on them.
This chart shows the net results for each (good job minus bad job). There are more details in the Ipsos report.
There are three points that are particularly worth noting about these figures.
1) Labour are ahead on nine of the 10 points. The only area where people think the Tories will go a better job is at getting national debt falling. In its analysis, Ipsos says:
On most ‘action’ parts of the pledges, eg halving inflation, growing the economy, reducing the national debt, passing a law to stop small boats, there is little to choose in expected net performance between the Conservatives and Labour. The exception is on the NHS.
However, on several of the ‘consequences’ part of the pledges eg easing the cost of living, creating better paid jobs / opportunities across the country or securing the future of Britain’s public services, the public tend to be divided on whether Labour can deliver but on balance think the Conservatives cannot.
2) The Tories fare worse on the NHS, where people generally have little confidence they will cut waiting times. By contrast, Labour does best on this measure.
3) The poll suggests Labour is seen as more likely to legislate to stop small boat crossing, and to swiftly remove people who arrive in the UK illegally, than the Conservative party. Voters think both parties are more likely to do a bad job than a good job on these goals, but the net scores for the Tories are lower. What is extraordinary about this is that Labour has not promised small boats legislation, whereas Sunak has, and Labour is not even in favour of swiftly deporting all people who arrive in the UK illegally, whereas Sunak is. You could read this as evidence that polling is pointless, because people do not know what they are talking about. But a better interpretation might be that, when a party has lost the trust of the public, it does not get credit for anything, even when it might deserve it.
If this is correct, then there is probably no hope of a Tory recovery.
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