The Prime Minister says she can’t and won’t give dates on when vaccine mandates might start to lift, but she’s unintentionally done just that, writes political editor Jo Moir
Opinion: Most people consume news in soundbites and with the fatigue of endless years of hearing about Covid many skip over the details.
That means a decent chunk of the country will have picked up two things from the Prime Minister’s comments on Monday – vaccine mandates lifting, and three to six weeks.
Both got plenty of mentions and are connected, but expecting mandates to be gone by the start of April, no ifs no buts, could be a big ask.
The pivotal part of Jacinda Ardern’s rationale for when vaccine mandates can start to lift is two-pronged.
Omicron cases must peak, and hospitalisations must normalise in a way that the health system is coping.
Buried further down in her speech on Monday was the explainer: “There can be no specific date given at this point, but what I can tell you is that we will be looking to make sure that we are well beyond the peak, and that the pressure on our health system is manageable’.’
Not only are Cabinet and health officials wanting cases to peak, but they also want to be “well beyond it’’.
International evidence and modelling have Omicron cases peaking within three to six weeks.
But countries have had varying experiences when it comes to cases dropping back down the other side of the peak – some have seen cases sustain at high levels over a long period of time.
A worst-case scenario could see cases take as long to drop off as they did to rise, potentially 12 weeks from start to finish.
It was an unnecessary attempt to enter National into the debate, at a time when the Opposition has the luxury of sitting back and watching the public mount pressure on the Government all by itself.
The longer the health system is under pressure from Omicron the closer it gets to winter and the inevitable flu season too.
New Zealand has escaped two flu seasons due to the borders being shut, but Ardern is committed to the easing at the border for Kiwis in Australia from next week and the rest of the world just two weeks later.
That exposes the country to a bunch of bugs it hasn’t had circulating since the winter of 2019.
If the Government is not only waiting for the peak to drop off but for the health system to also be coping, it could be the end of winter before that truly happens.
Asked for a more realistic assessment of when mandates might lift given the potential overwhelming of the hospital system for some months, Ardern changed tack.
She told Newsroom the health system’s ability to cope was “more relevant for the movements through the traffic light system than it is necessarily for changes like vaccination passes’’.
“Because remember the reason our experts are saying we’ll be in a position once we come through the other side to move away from vaccine passes, is actually because of the level of exposure everyone would have had.’’
In the space of half an hour Ardern altered the conditions for when vaccine mandates might disappear by shifting the emphasis off the state of the health system.
It’s returned the timeline to a much vaguer point in time, which is exactly what the Government is in need of when Omicron hasn’t even properly hit yet and it’s unclear what other variants might be down the line.
At the same time, for those who revel in the details, it has muddied the waters.
National’s leader Christopher Luxon did his best to get the jump on Ardern’s roadmap by heading to a studio to livestream a speech to New Zealanders, who he says are increasingly sympathising with aspects of the protest at Parliament.
His solution was to progressively end mandates once the country is through the peak of Omicron – not exactly distinctive from what the Government has been saying it will do.
It was an unnecessary attempt to enter National into the debate, at a time when the Opposition has the luxury of sitting back and watching the public mount pressure on the Government all by itself.
That same pressure meant Ardern had no choice but to provide a taste of what is to come over the next few months.
While it’s likely she would have outlined some of this around about now, regardless of the protests going on outside the Beehive, the pressure of that group would have played at least some minor role in the level of detail that’s been shared.
Ardern started laying out the narrative in her media appearances last week when she explained cases would need to have peaked and hospitalisations normalise.
She’s now added the guts of a timeline for mandates ending and the traffic light system easing, whilst also giving Cabinet wiggle room by saying the health system’s ability to cope only factors into some of those decisions.
Much like the border reopening it’s a minefield trying to predict what might be coming down the pipeline.
Late last year there were only 10 days between the deputy prime minister telling Kiwis in Australia to push on with plans for coming home and self-isolating and Ardern warning the reopening was on thin ice.
It’s unlikely many of those camped outside on Parliament’s lawn and surrounding streets put much weight on Ardern’s latest Omicron roadmap.
Much like the protesters, who seem to have no set end date, when exactly mandates might lift are in the same camp.