Congratulations, your favorite football team just selected a rookie quarterback in the first round of the NFL Draft!
After years of mediocre quarterback play, your team finally has its savior and prodigal son. The man to lift a trophy that removes every single problem from the past.
The expectations for this 20-something-year-old quarterback couldn’t be higher. This rookie quarterback is expected to compete immediately, no questions asked. If he doesn’t perform? Tough luck. He’ll be replaced as quickly as he was selected.
Rookie signal-callers paint the unfortunate reality of football.
People place lofty expectations on rookie quarterbacks because they have to. Coaches and general managers have to win to keep their jobs, so the young arm they’ve attached themselves to has to save them.
When you buy into a young quarterback without a minute of professional experience, the expectations will be high, and fans will follow suit.
Few rookie quarterbacks find immediate success, though. And fewer see individual success translate to team success.
Since the NFL’s inception, 14 rookies have started a playoff game, and only ten have won a single game. Last season, Brock Purdy became one of the few to win two games (leading the 49ers to the NFC Conference Championship) and the first rookie quarterback to win a playoff game since Russell Wilson in 2012.
If the Vikings are going to select a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, they need to place realistic expectations on that first year. What will those expectations be, though, and can past top draft picks prove anything?
Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence entered the NFL with lofty expectations. He was labeled the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck by a former NFL general manager, and a fair share of people in the media gave him the “generational” tag. Lawrence was not just a quarterback prospect; he was the quarterback prospect.
And yet, Lawrence struggled as a rookie. He wasn’t bad — he showed flashes that made teams willing to blow it up and become tank commanders — but he also wasn’t good. Lawrence threw more interceptions (17) than touchdowns (12) and a completion percentage under 60%, as the Jaguars finished with three wins and the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
The reasons behind Lawrence’s struggles weren’t hard to pinpoint. The former Clemson Tiger was sentenced to a season under head coach Urban Meyer — whose time in professional football was a cataclysmic failure — and his receiver room was a confusing mess of Marvin Jones, Jr, Laviska Shenault, and Laquon Treadwell.
A year ago, the Jaguars took a different approach to their problems. Doug Pederson was hired as their head coach, and Jaguars signed wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones and tight end Evan Engram to revitalize the offense.
The commitment to Lawrence paid off. After four years of under .500 records, Lawrence led the Jaguars to a 9-8 record and an AFC Wild Card victory against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Josh Allen
With the No. 7 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills took an unproven Josh Allen as their quarterback.
At the time, Allen was a tall and lengthy quarterback with an unpolished skillset. The former Wyoming quarterback was hailed for his physical tools and rocket of an arm but criticized for his lack of consistency.
Pre-draft scouting reports were littered with phrases like ‘his ceiling is incredible but so too is his bust potential,‘ far too often, with many thinking the situation he was drafted into would hold the ultimate key.
The Bills chose Allen but decided to have him sit on the bench to begin the season. Starting in front of Allen was Nathan Peterman, who lasted just four games as the starter.
Allen started the final 11 games at quarterback for the Bills but looked rather pedestrian. He threw two more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (10) and had a completion percentage hovering around 52%.
However, it’s hard to blame Allen for the poor start. Zay Jones and Robert Foster headlined the Bills’ wide receiver room, and 30-year-old LeSean McCoy was their most productive running back.
Just two years later, though, the Bills built a formidable squad around Allen. Running back Devin Singletary posted two 600-yard seasons, and the Bills chose to trade for wide receiver Steffon Digs, who immediately posted a 1,500-yard season.
The Bills have not posted a losing season since Allen’s rookie year, and have since become one of the NFL’s best teams. Allen has also become one of the league’s best quarterbacks, finishing in the top three of MVP voting in two different seasons.
Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert is an interesting case.
Herbert put together one of the better rookie seasons, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns. In 15 starts, the gunslinger from Oregon proved to be one of the better quarterbacks in a draft class that included Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa.
Still, the Los Angeles Chargers were fairly disappointing, winning just seven games, a figure that was one less than the preseason odds.
Casting blame on Herbert is difficult, but it is important to note that the Chargers did provide him with a solid core. Running back Austin Ekeler had proven to be serviceable, while wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were coming off 1,000-yard seasons in 2019.
And yet, despite this relatively solid core, the Chargers were in the bottom half for points per game.
Since then, the Chargers have not found the secret sauce to propel themselves into contender status. A mixture of injuries (including one to Herbert) and poor coaching has played a role, but Herbert’s rookie season is a reason for buyer beware.
Winning games with a rookie quarterback isn’t easy, and placing lofty expectations on said rookie is probably not a healthy way to team build. Patience should not only be preached but practiced with the young arm.
What about the Vikings?
The Minnesota Vikings are in a unique position for a rookie quarterback.
If the Vikings choose to select one during the 2024 NFL Draft class, they’ll enter a situation headlined by arguably the best wide receiver in football (Justin Jefferson). The offense would also include an established tight end (T.J. Hockenson), a nailed-down starter at left tackle (Christian Darrisaw), and an up-and-coming wide receiver (Jordan Addison).
Still, there will be plenty of holes that need to be addressed. The Vikings lack a reliable running game, their offensive line might be an incomplete product, and the defense is in the middle of a rebuild.
This isn’t to say a rookie quarterback can’t see immediate success but rather to say that realistic expectations should be placed.
Depending on the quarterback, the rookie season should be defined less on team results and more on individual growth. Weeks should be defined by what the quarterback improves on, and team record should take a backseat for the most part.
Regardless, there still needs to be a baseline for the results. The Vikings can’t select a young quarterback and win 4 games, but finishing with a near .500 record shouldn’t be viewed as a major disappointment.
