Now that college football is over, it’s time to fully turn our attention to the hardwood. There’s a big ACC matchup on tap Tuesday night as the No. 13 Virginia Cavaliers host unranked — but receiving votes — North Carolina. The Tar Heels have had a bit of a rollercoaster of a season as they started out the season at No. 1 and then fell out of the rankings after losing four straight games in late November/early December. Since then, however, Hubert Davis’s squad has won six of the last seven.
Virginia has three losses on the season — all Quad 1 games — but is 7-1 at home. The Cavaliers have looked unbeatable at times during the last two games against Pitt and Syracuse, but also squandered big leads in the second half of both contests. Bennett is winless against Davis in two attempts — both last season — but the Wahoos are a much better shooting team this year.
The Cavaliers are favorites by a slim margin, and the oddsmakers expect the game to be played in the 60s.
So what happens when the two meet in Charlottesville? Let’s take a look at some of the best bets for the game. All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Armando Bacot, UNC: Over 10.5 total rebounds
This feels as close to a lock as you can possibly get. Bacot is averaging 11.2 rebounds per game and is in the top-10 in the ACC in both offensive (15.9%, 1st) and defensive (20.8%, 9th) rebounding percentage percentage. In two meetings last season, Bacot grabbed 11 offensive and 22 defensive boards. Virginia is a much better shooting team this season (meaning fewer misses to rebound, you’d think), but count on Bacot to get his in this one.
Kihei Clark, UVA: Over 6.5 assists
If it feels like Clark has been at Virginia for a long time, well, you’re kind of right. He returned for his fifth and final year, and is the lone player on the roster that saw playing time in the Hoos’ 2019 national championship run. You might remember this assist on Mamadi Diakite’s game-tying bucket in the Elite Eight against Purdue:
Clark’s ability to dish the ball has improved over time (maybe not in dramatics), and he currently leads the ACC in assists per game (6.29) and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.84). While this assist mark against UNC is set just over his season average, Clark has dished out eight or more assists in four straight games (including games of 10 and 11).
Virginia this season is second nationally in assists per made field goal, assisting 69.6% of their made buckets.
Armaan Franklin, UVA: Over 13.5 points
Franklin can be a streaky shooter at times, but he’s played well in the last few games. In the last four games, Franklin has hit 14 points in three of them, including 20 against Albany and 16 in the last outing against Syracuse. More importantly for Virginia, if they want to pick up a pivotal conference win, it feels like they will need Franklin to score over 13.5 points.
Caleb Love, UNC: Under 13.5 points
Love has gone 10-for-34 (29%) from three over the last five games, which is about the same as his season average from deep. He has seemingly been feast or famine with either 18+ points or 7 in the last four. Which Caleb Love will we see? If it wasn’t likely that he’d match up with Clark, Franklin or Reece Beekman guarding him, I’d lean the over. Instead, I think they frustrate him enough to keep his output under 14 points.
