The “planets are aligning” for the Government to release funding to extend the Bakerloo line into south-east London, possibly as early as the spring of next year, business leaders have been told.
Speaking at the launch of a new business-led campaign to get the line extended to Hayes via Lewisham, a senior Transport for London official said the Government’s focus on getting more homes built has boosted the project’s prospects.
The ‘Biz4Bakerloo’ launch on Tuesday night was also attended by Sadiq Khan’s transport deputy, Seb Dance, who stressed the importance of replacing the line’s 52-year-old trains - saying it was “quite astonishing” that they were even still working.
The project would involve building a new tunnel south from the line’s current terminus at Elephant and Castle, with new stations built at Burgess Park and on the Old Kent Road.
The line would then call in at New Cross Gate and at Lewisham, with a further extension made possible using existing rail links down to Hayes and Beckenham Junction.
The bulk of the project will require funding from the Government, TfL has said. Two years ago, the cost of the extension as far as Lewisham was estimated at between £5.2bn and £8.7bn at 2021 prices. Going beyond Lewisham was thought to require a further £800m to £1.9bn.
Alex Williams, TfL’s chief customer and strategy officer, told the event there are “peaks and troughs” when it comes to planning any major rail project, as the certainty of whether it will be built rises and falls.
“It feels to me, in that peaks and troughs thing, that it’s on the way up, that there’s some good planets aligning to make sure that we are going to proceed with the scheme,” he said.
Plans for the project are already “very clearly defined”, Mr Williams pointed out, adding that the case for replacing the “ancient” trains is “compelling”.
The tunnel route from Elephant and Castle down to Lewisham has been “safeguarded”, he said, and there is “very strong support” for the project both from local borough councils and from the private sector.
As well as the scheme creating jobs, he pointed out that the Labour Government has made house-building a central focus, and has given London a mandatory target of constructing 81,000 new homes per year.
“You aren’t going to get anywhere near that [target], unless you invest in infrastructure - and this is a great project for that,” Mr Williams said.
He revealed that ahead of the Chancellor’s ‘comprehensive spending review’ in the spring of next year, which is expected to outline Government spending over the next few years, TfL will be submitting a specific request for money to pay for the Bakerloo line extension and upgrade.
“But to get it over the line, we absolutely do need business support for that, and that coalition of the private and public sector,” he said, pointing out that the development of the Elizabeth line, formerly known as Crossrail, “went through some really difficult times”.
He added: “But it got to a stage, in the early 2000s, where it became kind of unstoppable. It was unstoppable because the business community was so much behind it, and I think in some ways what we need to do for the Bakerloo is make it unstoppable…
“So I’m much more optimistic about the scheme now. There’s a lot of hurdles to overcome, but if the money is made available, we can absolutely deliver this.”
Mr Dance, the deputy mayor for transport, said the project is “imperative” and stressed the urgency of securing modern trains to replace the current fleet, which dates from 1972.
“It’s quite astonishing, frankly, that they still run. They’re very built,” he said.
“But there are increasingly fewer people who know how to fix them. Unfortunately, the number of people we are relying upon to fix these trains, as and when they fall out of service, is reducing.
“We cannot go on in a situation running the oldest trains in western Europe on our network. We have to upgrade it.”
He added that in terms of seeking funding from the Government, it was not simply a case of “putting a begging bowl out”, as the scheme will deliver substantial economic rewards. He concluded: “This project is a no-brainer - back it.”
