There have been some gripping contests at this Rugby World Cup already but the pièce de résistance is still to come. The two top-ranked teams in the world, two traditional old rivals, only one winner. Even in France, where interest in this tournament has sagged appreciably since the host nation bowed out, there are widespread expectations of a high-quality final.
To some degree the competition needs a suitably grand finale after a week of dispiriting off-field distractions and a distinct lack of promotional hoopla. South Africa have been holding their press conferences in a distant village hall while the majority of the All Blacks have been their usual dry, watchful selves. The opposing captains nose to nose beneath the Eiffel Tower? Dream on.
It is a far cry from the last time these two sides met in a World Cup final back in 1995. President Nelson Mandela, an expectant Rainbow Nation, the great Jonah Lomu, that never-to-be-forgotten jumbo jet roaring over Ellis Park before kick-off. Little wonder they subsequently made a movie about it: to this day there has not been a more seismic rugby occasion.
For most of the players, though, it is all sepia-tinged history. South Africa’s 34-year-old replacement, Willie le Roux, was six at the time and can just about recall his parents jumping up and down in the next room. Will Jordan, the All Black wing sensation who has scored 31 tries in his 30 Tests and is one more five-pointer away from claiming the RWC record for a single tournament, was not even born.
Which is why both nations are more intently focused on the opportunity now directly in front of them. One of these old adversaries is about to become the first team to win the Webb Ellis Cup four times and matches between the two are never, ever dull. South Africa are also seeking to be only the second team in RWC history to defend their world title successfully. The first? The All Blacks, of course, in 2015.
The Springboks, furthermore, have never lost a World Cup final and have no intention of starting now. Their journey to this point has been tough and eventful, not least their 13-8 pool loss to Ireland, and one-point knockout wins over France and England have left them suitably battle-hardened. Slightly less certain is exactly how much gas they have left in the tank and whether the biggest gamble of Rassie Erasmus’s and Jacques Nienaber’s coaching careers will pay off.
In terms of energy levels, their iconic captain Siya Kolisi believes the Boks should be fine. “Rassie and Jacques had a meeting on Monday where they announced who was playing. They said it was going to come down to the forwards and the way we pitch up, giving a platform to the backs to show their magic and X-factor. We all know how dynamic the All Blacks can be but for us it’s about our work rate, physicality, lineout and maul. It’s about absolutely emptying the tank and making sure you leave nothing out there.”
Even so, it is still a massive punt to select a 7-1 forward-dominated bench, particularly given what happened when these two sides played each other in Nelspruit last year. That day their scrum-half Faf de Klerk lasted just 43 seconds before having to be replaced following a heavy collision. The Boks still won but they had specialist backup available. If something similar happens this time, either winger Cheslin Kolbe or flanker Kwagga Smith will have to assume the No 9 role for the rest of the contest, less than ideal in any game, let alone a World Cup final.
The alternative scenario is that South Africa’s forwards rip in ferociously and, having seized the initiative, are then replaced in the second half by another fresh army of green giants. It worked out well in their record 35-7 triumph at Twickenham in August but that was a warm-up game in which New Zealand had Scott Barrett sent off and were down to 13 men at one stage.
Since then, though, the All Blacks have re-established some impressive momentum and, in addition to their attacking prowess, have proved resolute in defence, too. Interestingly, both they and South Africa have conceded a mere seven tries apiece in the entire tournament. They are also less likely to succumb, as England eventually did, to a late blast of scrummaging pressure.
In fact, the key to victory could be the first half. Remarkably the team behind at half-time has not only failed to win in the last seven games between the sides but also in 13 of the past 16 editions of the fixture. New Zealand have never conceded a first-half try in a World Cup final; the Boks have never scored one. South Africa, in fact, have managed a total of just two tries in all their three previous finals combined, both against England in Yokohama four years ago.
On what could be another wet Parisian night – the sweltering heatwave that made for sweaty palms and slippery balls earlier in the tournament is a distant memory – New Zealand will also need to pierce the extraordinary self-belief their opponents exhibit on these kind of occasions. Mzwandile Stick, the Boks’ assistant coach, is among those predicting a titanic struggle. “The All Blacks have won the World Cup three times, we have won it three times, so this game is almost bigger than just a World Cup final. Whoever wins is going to have bragging rights for the next eight years. We just want to make our people proud because the messages we get from home are very special.”
There are all kinds of further subplots to be considered as well. Ian Foster, in his farewell game as All Black head coach, suddenly has the chance to bow out as an unlikely national hero.
It is a similar story with Nienaber, who will be joining Leinster after this tournament. Then there is Bongi Mbonambi, South Africa’s hooker. Could he end a difficult personal week as a double world champion? Or is it Jordan who is about to fly into the record books?
And what price England’s Wayne Barnes – once voted the third most hated man in New Zealand after Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein – popping up to award the Kiwis a match-turning penalty? The All Blacks look a slightly fresher, better-balanced side but another desperately tense Parisian thriller could easily await.
