HOUSTON — Once it was over, Kyle Schwarber did what he almost always does after a game, win or lose. He sat down at his locker, cracked a beer, and decompressed with half a dozen teammates.
But this felt different. Of course it did. Because the Phillies’ joyous romp through the postseason ended Saturday night with a 4-1 thud against the Houston Astros in Game 6 of the World Series, and it will be months before the group meets like this again.
Some won’t be back. The sun rose Sunday, and 131 players became free agents, including six Phillies, most notably pitchers Kyle Gibson, Brad Hand, David Robertson and Noah Syndergaard. Others, including Jean Segura and Zach Eflin, may join them once decisions are made on options. By week’s end, the market will be open.
But most will return, and from the initial wave of disappointment, the Phillies spoke optimistically about their chances of reaching this moment again. They made the playoffs for the first time in 11 years, came within two victories of winning the whole thing and, to a man, believe they’re just getting started.
“Everyone is going to have that taste in their mouth and know what it takes to do it,” Schwarber said. “That’s the positive thing.”
Sure. But other runners-up said the same thing. The 2009 Phillies thought they’d be back and never got beyond the National League Championship Series. The 1993 and 1950 Phillies never returned to the World Series, either.
The core is intact around Bryce Harper, four seasons into his 13-year contract. Zack Wheeler is signed through 2024; J.T. Realmuto and Schwarber, 2025; Nick Castellanos, 2026. Aaron Nola’s 2023 option will be picked up. Rhys Hoskins and José Alvarado are locked up through next season; Seranthony Domínguez through 2024, and Ranger Suárez, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh beyond that.
“This is going to be the same team next year with a couple more pieces, I’d imagine,” Harper said. “[President of baseball operations] Dave Dombrowski’s our guy. [Owner] John Middleton understands we want to win, and he wants to win, too, right now. I’d imagine we’re going to be the same team but with some more pieces to make it that much better.”
The offseason begins immediately for Dombrowski, and like every team, the Phillies have questions. Let’s tackle a few of the bigger ones:
Will Harper need elbow surgery?
It was easily forgotten during Harper’s epic postseason, but he tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow in April, leaving him unable to throw without discomfort and rendering him a full-time designated hitter.
Maybe an offseason will aid the healing. But no amount of treatment (Harper got an injection in mid-May) or rest (he missed two months over the summer with a broken left thumb) alleviated the injury.
If surgery is necessary, Harper will want to have it done as soon as possible, especially considering the short offseason. Everyone recovers at a different pace, but here’s one potential timetable: Shohei Ohtani had UCL surgery on Oct. 1, 2018 and returned as a hitter on May 7, 2019.
It’s an imperfect example because pitching considerations factored into Ohtani’s return. But the Phillies may have to prepare for the possibility that Harper won’t be ready to hit by opening day or to play right field until midseason.
Will the payroll stay over the luxury tax?
When Dombrowski realized the opportunity to double down on offense in March by signing Schwarber and Castellanos, he talked ownership into pushing past the new $230 million luxury-tax threshold.
The bill is about to come due.
Although the tax isn’t calculated until the end of the year, the Phillies will be hit with an estimated surcharge of $2.6 million based on their approximately $243 million payroll, according to an Associated Press tally. If they stay over the threshold, which rises to only $233 million next year, their tax rate would go from 20% on the amount above the threshold to 30%. If they duck under, the penalty will reset.
But Middleton has said all along that he’s willing to pay the tax for the chance to win a World Series.
It almost worked out this year.
Is a shortstop on the shopping list?
For a second year in a row, there’s a star-studded shortstop market. The Phillies will have a need at the position if they decline Segura’s $17 million club option and move Stott to second base.
Trea Turner, a Harper favorite, heads the class and would slot nicely into the No. 2 spot in the order between Schwarber and Harper. He’s also believed to prefer the East Coast to staying in Los Angeles. (Turner’s wife is from New Jersey.)
The Phillies know all about Dansby Swanson’s ability and surely would love to pry him from the rival Atlanta Braves. Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts are expected to opt out of their contracts and enter the market. Dombrowski signed Bogaerts to a six-year, $120 million extension with the Boston Red Sox in 2019.
Any of the marquee shortstops figure to range in cost between $25 million and at least $30 million per year, with Turner and Correa likely aiming for Corey Seager’s 10-year, $325 million deal last winter. If the Phillies maintain a similar payroll, they could allocate Segura’s salary plus the $14 million that Didi Gregorius made this year to a star shortstop.
But they will have other financial considerations, including restocking the bullpen and possibly discussing a contract extension with Nola. Edmundo Sosa is an inexpensive and intriguing internal shortstop option.
When will Andrew Painter arrive?
Dombrowski loves power arms, and a strong case could be made that adding another stud to Wheeler, Nola, and Suárez would make a bigger difference than another bat in the lineup.
The Phillies could target free agent Carlos Rodón. They had an up-close look at the 29-year-old lefty, who struck out 10 in six scoreless innings against them on Sept. 4 in San Francisco. Or they could try to trade for a mid-rotation starter by dangling, say, Hoskins to an offense-needy team.
But Painter will get an opportunity to win a spot in spring training after dominating three minor league levels with a 1.56 ERA and 155 strikeouts in 103⅔ innings. And if the 19-year-old right-hander doesn’t make the team out of camp, it may not be much longer.
After all, Dombrowski has a history of pushing young pitchers. He was in charge in Miami when Josh Beckett debuted as a 21-year-old and in Detroit when Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, and Rick Porcello reached the majors at age 20, 22, and 20, respectively.
Painter’s potential, along with fellow pitching prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry, may be the best reason to be bullish on the Phillies’ future.
“This is a good taste to get these guys here in this moment, all these young players,” manager Rob Thomson said. “We’ve got a good group of veteran guys, and our system is starting to get loaded up with good arms at the upper end of the minor league system. I think this run has the potential to be very sustainable.”
