Without question, the Philadelphia Phillies are intent on winning a World Series in the near future. Needless to say, their fans would love nothing more than to use one of the top sportsbooks in Pennsylvania to place a bet on the Phillies winning it all in 2024. The club took a step toward making that happen this week by offering ace Aaron Nola a qualifying offer. While this move doesn’t guarantee that Nola will be back in the City of Brotherly Love next season, it signals that the Phillies want Nola back and are prepared to make him a priority this offseason.
A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract worth $20.325 million. Officially, Nola has until November 14 to accept or reject that offer. However, since he’s a star pitcher in the prime of his career, it’s a virtual certainty that Nola will reject the offer. That means he will explore the free-agent market and sign with any team. If he signs with someone other than Philadelphia, the Phillies will receive an extra selection in next year’s draft.
The 30-year-old Nola is hitting free agency at an interesting time. By his standards, he had a subpar season in 2023. Nola made 32 starts, going 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA. While that’s tied for his highest win total since 2018, Nola also posted his second-highest ERA since 2017.
Nevertheless, Nola helped to make up for his inconsistency during the regular season with a strong postseason. He went 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA over his four postseason starts, helping the Phillies reach the NLCS after leading Philly to the World Series in 2022. Nola and Zack Wheeler have helped to lead the Phillies to deep postseason runs in each of the past two seasons, which should motivate the club to keep him.
“We love him,” says Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. "He’s been tremendous for the franchise. He’s pitched very well for a number of years. He’s a Phillie. We hope to retain him.”
Early indications are that Nola will be seeking a contract with a salary of around $30 million per season and potentially as long as seven years. Whether a team is willing to give Nola a contract like that off a disappointing regular season remains to be seen. However, if Nola is able to garner enough interest on the open market to land a contract like that, the Phillies may not be able to re-sign him. Other teams may be more willing to offer such a lucrative contract to a pitcher who’s now on the wrong side of 30 and wasn’t at his best in 2023 until the playoffs. If that happens, the Phillies would have to quickly pivot to sign another pitcher.
“We would need to replace him,” Dombrowski said about the possibility of Nola signing with another team. “We need to be in a position where we have somebody else that will be a starting pitcher of quality in the rotation. So, yes, it’s either Aaron or somebody else.”
Without Nola, the Phillies still have Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, and Taijuan Walker to anchor their rotation in 2024. But Philadelphia would likely need another frontline starter to be a serious World Series contender next season. Nola obviously fits the bill and might be the team’s top choice. However, despite receiving a qualifying offer, it’s far from certain that Nola will be back with the Phillies in 2024.
