Ferdinand Marcos Jr appears on track to become the next president of the Philippines, as initial vote counts showed a significant lead for the son and namesake of the late dictator who ruled the country for more than 20 years.
A partial and unofficial count based on 61.05% of the election returns showed Marcos Jr in the lead with 20m votes on Monday evening. His nearest rival, the vice-president and former human rights lawyer Leni Robredo, was on 9.5m votes, according to data released by the commission on elections. It is not clear which areas of the country have been counted, and if these are Marcos strongholds.
Opinion surveys in the run-up to the vote suggest Marcos Jr, known as Bongbong, will win the election, despite his family’s history of human rights abuses and corruption. The Marcoses plundered as much as $10bn from the state, while thousands of his opponents were arrested, tortured and killed.
His biggest threat is Robredo, the current vice-president, who has campaigned promising good and competent governance. Robredo, who worked as a human rights lawyer before entering politics, has been a staunch critic of the outgoing president, Rodrigo Duterte, criticising his bloody “war on drugs”, his Covid response and warning against populist leaders.
People began lining up to vote before polling centres opened at 6am on Monday morning, while others waited more than four hours in the heat. The vote follows three months of fierce campaigning, in which 2 million Robredo volunteers launched an unprecedented door-to-door campaign to try to win over voters and counter an onslaught of online disinformation that has sought to portray the rule of Marcos as a golden era.
Social media has been inundated with false stories about the Marcos regime, claiming it was a prosperous and peaceful time, and seeking to brush aside the atrocities and corruption.
“This is not just an election to determine our future. It’s an election that will determine the correct version of our past,” said Aries Arugay, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, who is based in Manila. “If Marcos Jr wins, they will literally wipe out that version, that collective memory.”
Outside Santa Ana elementary school, in a residential area of Manila, people sheltered from the heat under umbrellas as they made their way to vote. Delia Ong, 71, a part-time real estate broker, said she was backing Robredo. “She is really gifted, talented, she is bright. She is not just famous for the name; she is self made,” said Ong. Robredo had been proactive in helping poorer communities, she said, citing her reputation for visiting deprived areas and helping victims of natural disasters.
Marcos Jr was “no brains, but has money”, she added.
Marcos Jr’s candidacy has polarised opinion. Some reject outright that the family plundered money, despite courts at home and abroad ruling they possessed ill-gotten wealth.
Raquel Deguzaman, 59, who works as a photocopier, said she supported Marcos Jr and did not believe the family was corrupt. “[Marcos Sr] was able to help the Philippines. He’s really good,” she said, adding that he had built infrastructure, including hospitals.
It is not likely that martial law, which was imposed by Marcos Sr in 1972, would happen again, but if it did, it would help stop crime, she said. “There’s no discipline, just pure robbery, holdups,” said Deguzaman.
Arugay said the vote was a referendum on Duterte’s “strongman rule, populist, authoritarian kind of leadership”, adding: “You can really say that Marcos Jr somehow typifies that – or even typifies a worst version of it.”
Duterte has not endorsed a presidential candidate. However his daughter, Sara, who is vying for the vice-presidency, is running in tandem with Marcos, creating a formidable partnership of two of the country’s most powerful political families. While Marcos traditionally has support in the north, the Dutertes are popular in Mindanao and parts of the Visayas.
Marcos Jr, whose slogan is “together we shall rise again”, has campaigned with a message of unity and rekindling a former greatness. He has not apologised for his family’s political history.
Opinion surveys suggest Marcos Jr is far ahead of his opponents. One recent poll found he was the preferred candidate of 56% of respondents. Robredo, behind him, is favoured by 23%.
Robredo’s campaign has gathered momentum in the run-up to the election, with large crowds attending her rallies and young voters volunteering to go door to door to win support for her campaign.
Many people turning out to vote were doing so for the first time, said Ivan Mirasol, 28, a data analyst, who was voting with his father in Santa Ana. “Because we want the change that we have been really yearning for several years already.”
“Number one, she has a good track record. Number two, she doesn’t have any taint of corruption,” added Mirasol.
Others are not convinced. Mar Escandor, 61, who was also on his way to vote, said he was done with the Marcoses, but did not support Robredo. “I don’t like female presidents. Very weak,” he said.
Escandor was backing Isko Moreno, who grew up in and is now mayor of Manila. Moreno, a former actor, is popular in Manila but trailing in the polls along with the boxing star Manny Pacquiao and Panfilo Lacson, a 73-year-old former national police chief.
Polls officially closed at 7pm local time (1200 BST), but voters within 30 metres of precincts will still be allowed to cast their ballot, election officials said. About 67 million people are eligible to vote.
The winner will take office on 30 June and lead for a single, six-year term.
