The fan bases of the Chicago Bears and Blackhawks are in different places right now.
Bears fans: jubilation.
Hawks fans: trepidation.
Bears fans are celebrating the team’s trade haul — two first-round draft picks, two second-rounders and former Carolina Panthers receiver D.J. Moore — in exchange for the NFL’s No. 1 draft pick.
Hawks fans are sweating out each win or close loss, knowing that the NHL’s No. 1 pick — and consensus favorite Connor Bedard — isn’t secure. Far from it.
The Hawks have stiff competition for the best lottery odds for the top spot with the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have had the league’s worst record since Feb. 23. But others have recently entered the mix. The San Jose Sharks replaced the Hawks as the league’s second-worst team, and now the Anaheim Ducks are nipping at the Hawks’ heels.
Before the season, it was a foregone conclusion the Hawks and Arizona Coyotes would battle it out for the bottom of the standings and the best odds in the draft lottery for the No. 1 pick.
After all, both rosters were supposed to be bereft of talent and the teams could tank without appearing to tank. And certainly after the trade deadline, anyone who could put up a fight looked to have been shipped elsewhere.
But it hasn’t turned out that way.
The Coyotes were sixth from last with a 24-32-11 record (.440 points percentage) through Monday’s games with only 15 games remaining. The Hawks were third from the bottom at 22-38-6 (.379).
On Tuesday, the Hawks will host the Boston Bruins, the top Stanley Cup contender with a league-leading 50-10-5 record. The Hawks were supposed to be vastly outmatched by every opponent they’ve faced this month, and while they’ve gone 1-4-1, the overall goal differential was just minus-4 (19-15) entering Tuesday’s game.
Someone forgot to give the stripped-down Hawks the script.
Take the last two road games.
On Friday night, the Florida Panthers had a 73% win probability, according to FiveThirtyEight, but they had to rally from two goals down to scratch out a 4-3 overtime win over the Hawks.
The following night, the Tampa Bay Lightning had a 76% win probability, but it took a last-minute snipe by Brayden Point to break a 1-1 tie and pave the way for a 3-1 Bolts win.
“It’s the NHL and they don’t like to lose,” Hawks coach Luke Richardson said of his players. “You don’t want to hear we had a good effort. That gets old after a while.”
Richardson has said since he took the job that he’s not coaching to lose, and he elaborated on that thought process Tuesday.
“I told (the front office) right from day one, I’m not here to do that,” he said about tanking. “I’m going to make their job really hard, and that’s our objective.
“I have all the trust in the world after watching last year’s draft, no matter what pick we have, that the scouts came up with three really good first-rounders and some great second-, third-rounders and down the line.”
Richardson said the Hawks’ moves last summer show the overhaul of the scouting department is working.
“With all the picks that we have in the next three years especially, I’m not even looking to see where we’re picking,” he said. “We coach each game. We’re playing the Boston Bruins, probably the best team in the NHL this year, and we’re trying to figure out the best game plan to beat them.
“Whether that helps or hurts long term, I don’t think it’s going to really do much (from) a coaching perspective. ... I’m pretty happy with — and it’s not over yet — but the first year’s stepping stone for culture and what we want to do here and accomplish, and I think it’s being seen in the games now.”
At this point there should be no doubt about Richardson’s intentions or that the players have bought in. But while the players may see these close losses as heartbreakers, the front office certainly will be closely monitoring the tiebreakers.
If you dive into the numbers, there’s good news and bad news.
Of the top four “contenders” for last place, the Hawks benefitted from having the toughest remaining strength of schedule (.574) through Monday while the Ducks had the easiest (.542), according to NHL Stats and Information.
The Blue Jackets had the next-toughest at .570. And the Jackets also had one more game to play (17) than the Hawks (16).
The Sharks had a slightly worse record than the Hawks entering Tuesday — tied at 50 points but with a .373 points percentage to the Hawks’ .379 — but a better record (.421) against their remaining opponents.
While that bodes well for the Hawks, who are .365 against their remaining schedule, the Jackets are better-positioned there too (.333).
Based on 1,000 simulations of the remainder of season, hockey-reference.com projects the Jackets could finish comfortably in the cellar with 51 points in the likely worst-case scenario. The Hawks’ worst-case projection (54 points) also puts them ahead of the Sharks (53).
If it gets to tiebreakers, the Ducks have the fewest regulation wins (12) of the bottom-feeders while the Hawks, Sharks and Jackets have 14, 14 and 15, respectively.
Entering Tuesday’s schedule, Moneypuck.com placed the Hawks with the third-best odds (13.8%) to earn the top lottery slot, behind the Jackets (19.4%) and Sharks (14.1%).
Once the final standings are set, the last-place team will have an 18.5% chance of winning the first draw. Second through fifth place are 13.5%, 11.5%, 9.5% and 8.5%.
There have been two draws for the lottery the last two seasons, and the last-place team retained the No. 1 pick both years.
If the Hawks can’t land Bedard, the next-best prospect could be Adam Fantilli.
Since 2016, when the NHL held three draws, a lower-seeded draft slot has acquired the second pick every year. A pessimist also could invent a scenario where the 10-slot limit for teams ranked 13th or later could push the Hawks into fourth or fifth place.
Whatever the projection, the safest place for the Hawks is the basement.
It’s a rare opportunity to be in position to draft a generational player like Bedard, and some view Fantilli or Matvei Michkov in the same light.
The Hawks have endured a lot of painful losses on the scoreboard and on the roster since last summer.
Beloved players such as Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat have been sacrificed for this rebuild, but the biggest defeat come draft day would be one loss too few.
