The man of the hour for the Seahawks is quarterback Geno Smith. Fresh off the best season of his career and his first appearance at the Pro Bowl, Smith is set to hit free agency next month. His age and relatively small sample size of great quarterbacking will work against him, but some analysts believe he’ll still secure a huge bag.
Pro Football Focus came out with their top 100 free agents of 2023 list a few days ago. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is ranked first, followed by Smith. PFF is projecting that Geno will sign a four-year deal worth a total of $150 dollars, including $112.5 million guaranteed.
PFF shared some numbers that indicate what Geno did in 2022 wasn’t a fluke.
“Nothing about what he’s doing is fluky or excessively bolstered by things like play action, an outlier performance in unstable metrics like passing grade against pressure, or any other method you use to try to poke holes in his production this season. Smith’s 79.8 overall grade and 87.6 grade from a clean pocket this season ranked ninth and 12th, respectively… There’s no current indication we should expect some massive regression, either. Smith’s 85.8 passing grade against middle-of-field-open coverage further illustrates that he didn’t benefit in an outsized fashion from loaded box counts that freed up his receivers in an effort to sell out against the run.”
This is all good stuff – and when you compare Smith’s skill level to the guys who are in the $35-$40 million annual range that average seems fair.
While the numbers sound about right, the length of the deal is a stretch. Smith is 32 years old, which is probably enough to keep his ceiling at 2-3 years on his next contract, no matter where it comes from.
There’s also that inconvenient string of turnovers that Smith suffered during the second half of the season. PFF’s own math showed that Geno’s mistakes were “killing” the Seahawks since Week 5 on.
