Liberal MPs have urged Peter Dutton to differentiate the party with fresh policies on home ownership and emissions reduction, after the “bitterly disappointing” once-in-a-century byelection loss in Aston.
Despite his poor standing in Victoria and metro seats, Dutton’s leadership is safe for now, with members mostly blaming the Albanese government’s honeymoon period and a threadbare policy agenda for Roshena Campbell’s loss to Labor’s Mary Doyle.
Dutton still has the support of his own conservative faction and the moderate faction, much reduced after losing the 2022 election, with MPs crediting him at least for uniting the party, if not restoring its electoral fortunes.
Senior members of Dutton’s frontbench have supported his position, including shadow finance minister, Jane Hume, and the shadow immigration minister, Dan Tehan, but Victorian Liberals have rejected Dutton’s claim the dysfunctional division is to blame for the result.
One Victorian state MP said this was “ridiculous” because federal Liberal director Andrew Hirst had been “working out of a hotel in Scoresby for weeks” to run the campaign.
“The federal Liberals are going to blame it all on us so that they don’t have to self-reflect,” they said, citing Dutton’s appearance on Insiders.
One senior Victorian Liberal source said that Campbell was “an A-grade candidate given absolutely nothing to work with”.
“She was upset about interest rates going up … about the cost of living going up … about a couple local roads not being built – when we were in government for nine years and didn’t do anything about them during that time.
“They gave her three minuscule issues and no solutions to any of them.”
The Liberal MP James Stevens said the result was “bitterly disappointing” and “if replicated would see us barely exist in major metropolitan cities across Australia” – including his own marginal seat of Sturt in South Australia.
Speaking to ABC Radio, Stevens rejected the suggestion the Liberals were on the wrong side of social issues including the Indigenous voice, arguing the party instead needed “positive economic security policy positions” including to boost home ownership.
He listed energy, climate change, retirement, super, and tax as other areas in which voters are “crying out for us to have our own identity, our own policies”.
The Liberal MP Bridget Archer, who has crossed the floor on emissions reduction targets and the government’s housing bill, said that “obviously [moving] ‘further to the right’ is not the answer” to the Coalition’s policy dilemma.
The NSW Liberal senator, Andrew Bragg, told Guardian Australia it “makes sense to release more economic policies in the next 12 months” with home ownership and emissions reduction top of the list.
“We also need to stay away from culture-war issues – that has always been my mantra.”
Earlier on Monday, Bragg endorsed Dutton as leader, telling Sky News he was “definitely” the right person to lead given his “high level of personal credibility and warmth” and “strong foundation as a person and a leader”.
During the Aston campaign the Victorian Liberal leader, John Pesutto, staged an aborted attempt to expel MP Moira Deeming over her attendance at an anti-transgender rally that was gatecrashed by neo-Nazis.
Ahead of the byelection, he and Deeming were implicitly rebuked by Dutton, who said it was “frustrating” the party’s focus on cost of living had been diluted by “other issues”.
The federal Liberal party room will convene on Wednesday to consider its position on the Indigenous voice to parliament and the executive, with the Aston result giving fresh impetus to Liberal MP Jason Wood’s call for a conscience vote.
Russell Broadbent, the Liberal MP for Monash, east of Melbourne, said it “would be normal” to have a broader conversation about the party’s direction at that meeting “after what happened – which hasn’t happened in 100 years”.
Broadbent told Guardian Australia he had always “thought it was difficult to win” Aston, citing his recent comments that people “haven’t transferred blame from the last government to this government yet”.
Labor believes Campbell’s attacks on the cost of living fell flat because voters did not accept the Albanese government was responsible for economic conditions 10 months into its first term.
Keith Wolahan, the Liberal MP from Menzies, neighbouring Aston, said that Dutton “will have success in Melbourne” when voters get to know him but it “takes time” with a new leader.
“Labor is very good at painting Liberal leaders as cartoon characters,” he told Sky News. “Our job is to push back, to not let them decide who our leader is and what our values are.”
“They want us to fight for things, to fight for them.”
Wolahan said the Coalition was at a disadvantage because the byelection had come before policy work leading into the next election so “we’re not going to have solutions” to policy problems.
One Victorian state Liberal MP said the loss was due to “a perfect storm of factors”.
“We had Dutton, who is unpopular in Melbourne. We had a candidate who didn’t live in the electorate. We had a bare policy platform. We had the Deeming saga. We had Tudge’s history. [It was] the third election in a year.
“We were up against a relatively well-known Labor candidate, a government that’s still in its honeymoon phase.”
“People were going into the voting booths angry and that’s not how you want them.”
Guardian Australia understands several state and federal MPs – from rival factions – are working together on a plan to challenge Greg Mirabella for the role of Liberal party state president in the wake of the historic loss. The party is due to hold its next annual general meeting in August.
