Peter Bradshaw’s Baftas predictions: which films will win – and which should?

Votes are cast … Bafta awards being made. Photograph: Ian West/PA

Best film

Will win Oppenheimer
Should win Poor Things
Shoulda been a contender Godland

Best director

Will win Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
Should win Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
Shoulda been a contender Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer

Will win Molly Manning Walker for How to Have Sex
Should win Molly Manning Walker for How to Have Sex
Shoulda been a contender Sam H Freeman and Ng Choon Ping for Femme

Best British film

Will win The Zone of Interest
Should win All of Us Strangers
Shoulda been a contender Typist Artist Pirate King

Best film not in the English language

Teo Yoo and Greta Lee in Past Lives. Photograph: Album/Alamy

Will win The Zone of Interest
Should win Past Lives
Shoulda been a contender The Eight Mountains

Best animated film

Will win The Boy and the Heron
Should win The Boy and the Heron
Shoulda been a contender Orion and the Dark

Best original screenplay

Will win Celine Song for Past Lives
Should win Celine Song for Past Lives
Shoulda been a contender Emma Seligman and Rachel Sennott for Bottoms

Best adapted screenplay

Will win Tony McNamara for Poor Things
Should win Tony McNamara for Poor Things
Shoulda been a contender Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Best leading actor

Will win Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers
Should win Bradley Cooper for Maestro
Shoulda been a contender Joaquin Phoenix for Napoleon

Best leading actress

Will win Emma Stone for Poor Things
Should win Carey Mulligan for Maestro
Shoulda been a contender Glenda Jackson for The Great Escaper

Best supporting actor

Will win Robert Downey Jr for Oppenheimer
Should win Paul Mescal for All of Us Strangers
Shoulda been a contender Aiden Gillen for Dance First

Best supporting actor

Will win Rosamund Pike for Saltburn
Should win Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers
Shoulda been a contender Ebla Mari for The Old Oak

Best original score

Will win Jerskin Fendrix for Poor Things
Should win Jerskin Fendrix for Poor Things
Shoulda been a contender Mica Levi for The Zone of Interest

Best cinematography

Will win Matthew Libatique for Maestro
Should win Łukasz Żal for The Zone of Interest
Shoulda been a contender Maria von Hausswolff for Godland